ATL: INVEST 98L - Discussion

[cycloneye]

8 PM TWO at 50%/50%.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ASSOCIATED WITH A BROAD AREA OF LOW
PRESSURE IN THE EASTERN TROPICAL ATLANTIC...LOCATED ABOUT 600 MILES
WEST-SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS...CONTINUE TO SHOW SIGNS
OF ORGANIZATION. THIS LOW COULD STILL BECOME A TROPICAL DEPRESSION
TONIGHT OR FRIDAY BEFORE UNFAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS INHIBIT
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...
50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL
CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

[Gustywind]

98L recap.


DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/1745 UTC 10.5N 33.7W TOO WEAK 98L
10/1145 UTC 10.9N 32.2W T1.0/1.0 98L
09/1200 UTC 10.8N 27.7W TOO WEAK 98L
09/0545 UTC 10.4N 28.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[Gustywind]

8 PM TWD.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...
A 1008 MB LOW IS CENTERED NEAR 10N33W AND REMAINS EMBEDDED
WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. THE LOW IS THE FOCAL POINT OF A
BROADER MONSOONAL GYRE WITH INFLUENCE FROM 08N-15N BETWEEN 29W-
43W. THE GYRE CONTINUES TO LIE BENEATH THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONIC CIRCULATION CENTERED NEAR 12N25W
PROVIDING AMPLE UPPER LEVEL DIFFLUENCE FOR WIDELY SCATTERED
MODERATE CONVECTION FROM 09N-14N BETWEEN 29W-41W...AND ISOLATED
MODERATE CONVECTION ELSEWHERE FROM 06N-16N BETWEEN 28W-41W.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track.

AL, 98, 2013101100, , BEST, 0, 112N, 336W, 25, 1008, DB

[WeatherGuesser]

Is it soup yet?

[stormkite]

Dry air and shear my 2cent's it's doomed.



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[FireRat]

I'm surprised it got to 50/50 all the way out there THIS time of year in THIS season! Wow, that's a feat on its own. However, I'm not going to go gung ho with this storm, I've been burned too much by this season's "promising" storms heh heh

It's still many days out from any land areas, so it still deserves at least some attention IMO. Yet, my eyes right now are glued on the Bay of Bengal, man what a monster we got prowling those waters!!

[Gustywind]

From SSD

11/0545 UTC 10.5N 37.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[Gustywind]

8 AM TWD

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

A 1008 MB LOW PRESSURE CENTER IS NEAR 11N35W. CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION...NUMEROUS STRONG FROM 10N TO 12N BETWEEN 34W AND
41W. SCATTERED STRONG ELSEWHERE FROM 10N TO 14N BETWEEN 33W AND
44W. UPPER LEVEL WINDS ARE BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL
CYCLONE FORMATION. SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM STILL IS
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER LEVEL WINDS
BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE DURING THIS WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS
A MEDIUM CHANCE OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT
48 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO MOVE WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD ABOUT 10 KNOTS.

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
800 AM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IS LOCATED SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. THE ASSOCIATED SHOWER AND
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY REMAINS DISORGANIZED...AND UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
ARE STEADILY BECOMING LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. HOWEVER...SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO...BEFORE UPPER-LEVEL WINDS
BECOME EVEN LESS CONDUCIVE OVER THE WEEKEND. THIS SYSTEM HAS A
MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING
THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A MEDIUM CHANCE...40 PERCENT...OF BECOMING
A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WESTWARD
TO WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT AROUND 10 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART

[wxman57]

I remain unimpressed.

[Sanibel]

Off Topic: Major Cyclone Phailin is in the Bay Of Bengal and headed for India.

[Gustywind]

Latest SSD numbers...


11/1145 UTC 11.3N 36.7W T1.0/1.0 98L
11/0545 UTC 10.5N 37.2W T1.0/1.0 98L

[Hammy]

formation alert on NRL based on <Latest ATCF Track: smal982013.13101106.jpg>

graphic isn't corrected yet.

[floridasun78]

formation alert on NRL based on <Latest ATCF Track: smal982013.13101106.jpg>

graphic isn't corrected yet.

that link dont work

[hurricanes1234]

This thing is done in my opinion. Once again we are trolled by 2013 and its "promising" systems. As for later on, people are saying that it could become something relatively strong, but in my opinion, it's probably just speculation and/or overforecasted model runs. Everything this season has been a trick, down to simple invests not forming and up to storms not intensifying as forecast. I don't expect anything different from this year, and I personally think the season will end pretty soon. Shear and dry air will look good, and when the storm forms, they suddenly increase to unfavourable levels as to inhibit development. Nothing new at all.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[floridasun78]

ok season end no more hurr fat lady sing

[Hammy]

formation alert on NRL based on <Latest ATCF Track: smal982013.13101106.jpg>

graphic isn't corrected yet.

that link dont work

Wasn't linked, but text was copied showing the time. The graphic appears to be from pre-Dorian.

[floridasun78]

formation alert on NRL based on <Latest ATCF Track: smal982013.13101106.jpg>

graphic isn't corrected yet.

that link dont work

Wasn't linked, but text was copied showing the time. The graphic appears to be from pre-Dorian.

i see i want to site i not sure if error or their going issue formation alert

[cycloneye]

Up to 50%/50%

TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
200 PM EDT FRI OCT 11 2013

FOR THE NORTH ATLANTIC...CARIBBEAN SEA AND THE GULF OF MEXICO...

A LARGE LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED ABOUT 1000 MILES WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF THE CAPE VERDE ISLANDS. SHOWER AND THUNDERSTORM
ACTIVITY HAS BECOME A LITTLE BETTER ORGANIZED DURING THE PAST
SEVERAL HOURS...AND SOME DEVELOPMENT OF THIS SYSTEM IS STILL
POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER THAT...UPPER-LEVEL
WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BECOME LESS CONDUCIVE FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE
FORMATION. THIS SYSTEM HAS A MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT OF
BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND A
MEDIUM CHANCE...50 PERCENT...OF BECOMING A TROPICAL CYCLONE
DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS WHILE IT MOVES WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TO
WESTWARD AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

&&

FIVE-DAY FORMATION PROBABILITIES ARE EXPERIMENTAL IN 2013. COMMENTS
ON THE EXPERIMENTAL FORECASTS CAN BE PROVIDED AT...

http://WWW.NWS.NOAA.GOV/SURVEY/NWS-SURVEY.PHP?CODE=ETWO

$$
FORECASTER STEWART