ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

[floridasun78]

updated Models run by sfwmd

[Hammy]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfsfull/2013101112/gfsfull_pres_wind_atl_11.png

GFS again (briefly) showing storm intensity.

[gatorcane]

Not sure about that GFS run. It develops a secondary low behind the primary low and sends the primary low more WNW while weakening and the secondary low develops heading NW. Could be some convective feedback issues that we have seen with the GFS a few times this season.

ECMWF probably has the better idea the whole mess staying relatively weak and heading more west to a position near the NE Leewards or a little NE of there.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF brings a weak 98L to a position a couple of hundred miles east of the Bahamas at 168 hours. The run later goes on to shear 98L apart by 240 hours but this is the farther west run I have seen though the ECMWF keeps the system very weak the whole time.

[ROCK]

I have looked at all the globlas tonight....even if it makes it as far west as the EURO is showing got to believe whatever will go fishing. It is Oct after all.

what we need is a Carib formation that hooks ala Wilma this time of year......about to stick a fork in 2013 TC season....IMO

[gatorcane]

Latest guidance:

[gatorcane]

00Z ECMWF takes the system WNW to just NE of the Leewards and then bends it back west and takes it into the Bahamas. Past several runs have the same general forecast for 98L. Granted, it is very weak the entire run but that would be quite unusual to get a wave to come this far west at that latitude in mid October.