ATL: INVEST 98L - Models

[HurricaneBelle]

After Karen I'm pretty much tossing the GFS out as a reliable model for the rest of the season. I'm doubtful this is even going to develop as the Euro is going weaker and weaker as time goes on.

GFS busted on intensity with Karen but ended up getting the track right, as her remnant did make the sharp E turn and is moving across northern Florida.

[cycloneye]

The FIM model develops it.

[floridasun78]

The FIM model develops it.

http://oi41.tinypic.com/nbutkm.jpg

fim take out to sea?

[gatorcane]

Looking very fishy to me from what I can see from the models. Could really pump up the ACE though...but not this board with no threat to land

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[blp]

The 00z Euro is further west with the recurve again, now showing it happening around 60W. That is a swing of about 10 degrees in 24 hours. It also keeps it relatively weak which would explain the further west it goes.

[blp]

Most of the models are forecasting a trough developing in about 6 days around 45W that will cause enough of a weakness in the ridge to cause the poleward movement. That trough is forecast to lift out quickly though but the question will be where will the system be at that time and will it be far enough North to make recurve all but certain. If it stays weak there might be a slight chance it stays far enough south to feel little poleward movement but that is still on the low side of the probabilities right now.

[CrazyC83]

The 00z Euro is further west with the recurve again, now showing it happening around 60W. That is a swing of about 10 degrees in 24 hours. It also keeps it relatively weak which would explain the further west it goes.

Seems most likely given the conditions. The Euro model has never made any storm strong this season...

[Riptide]

Well, these models are so bad at forecasting intensity. GFS changed it's mind at 12z with slow developement.

[Hammy]

Seems most likely given the conditions. The Euro model has never made any storm strong this season...

It (very erroneously) showed Humberto's second run being near major hurricane for about two day's worth of runs but it goes to show how badly the "upgrade" has reduced the capabilities of these models compared to the last few seasons.

[blp]

12z GFS weaker and more west. More realistic.

[HurrMark]

12z GFS weaker and more west. More realistic.

Eventually the trough catches it and it quickly goes out, though...way before the islands.

[gatorcane]

12Z ECMWF weaker and now through the NE leewards...guess we can't write this off as a fish yet.

[blp]

18z GFS much further west now reaching 70w in the long range. This could impact the islands.

Funny if this was not 2013, someone would have posted this. Just goes to show how the season has gone.

[toad strangler]

18z GFS much further west now reaching 70w in the long range. This could impact the islands.

Funny if this was not 2013, someone would have posted this. Just goes to show how the season has gone.

http://imageshack.us/a/img534/6606/4znv.jpg

It's 288 hours for crying out loud.

[gatorcane]

Suddenly both GFS and ECMWF are way west with this system now with the ECMWF impacting the NE Leewards and the GFS just NE of the Leewards and then bending it back west towards the Bahamas. What a difference 24 hours makes when both models were showing a big recurve fish.

Consensus (grey line) has shifted way left today:

[blp]

Suddenly both GFS and ECMWF are way west with this system now with the ECMWF impacting the NE Leewards and the GFS just NE of the Leewards and then bending it back west towards the Bahamas. What a difference 24 hours makes when both models were showing a big recurve fish.

Consensus (grey line) has shifted way left today:

http://img5.imageshack.us/img5/6260/gfv.gif

Yea Gator interested to see more runs but looks like if it stays weak it will make it across. Also I noted the trough that was lifting it out yesterday is much further north so it does not create a big weakness.

[blp]

Model Rundown:

All the major models show this area getting better organized in the next several days then followed by gradual weakening after 50W and some dissipate as it reaches the islands and 60W. Even the conservative UKmet has a strong vorticity in 72hrs.

The CMC is the outlier on both track and strength which is not a surprise considering its tendancy to overhype systems. It shows a strong system hitting the weakness at 40W and recurving.

I think it is worth watching because it is becoming more likely that it will make it across the basin and reach the islands. What will be left will be the question, but we are talking beyond 7 days and we all know how bad the models have been handling intensity this year.

12z

[wxman57]

Weak LLC, but doesn't look too promising. Euro takes it to the NE Caribbean in 8-9 days as an open wave. If it develops, it will likely head out to sea to the north.

[cycloneye]

12z GFS is stronger and well NE of islands.

[TreasureIslandFLGal]

wow, look at the big low in the northern atlantic on that run.