WPAC: FRANCISCO - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

609
WTPQ33 PGUM 161558
TCPPQ3

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO (26W) ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP262013
200 AM CHST THU OCT 17 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION 26W IS NOW TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO...

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN
AND SAIPAN AND ADJACENT WATERS OUT TO 40 NM. TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING SUSTAINED WINDS OF 40 MPH OR MORE...
ARE STILL POSSIBLE IN THE NEXT 24 TO 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------

LOCATION...11.4N 143.2E

ABOUT 175 MILES SOUTHWEST OF GUAM
ABOUT 230 MILES SOUTHWEST OF ROTA
ABOUT 295 MILES SOUTHWEST OF TINIAN
ABOUT 310 MILES SOUTHWEST OF SAIPAN
ABOUT 370 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF YAP

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 220 DEGREES AT 10 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------

AT 100 AM CHST...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO
(26W) WAS LOCATED BY SATELLITE NEAR LATITUDE 11.4 NORTH AND
LONGITUDE 143.2 EAST.

TROPICAL STORM FRANCISCO IS MOVING SOUTHWEST AT 10 MPH. FRANCISCO IS
EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN SLIGHTLY AND TURN TOWARD THE WEST TODAY...
THEN TURN TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHWEST THIS EVENING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO 40 MPH. TROPICAL STORM
FRANCISCO WILL CONTINUE STRENGTHENING THROUGH TONIGHT...AND COULD
BECOME A TYPHOON ON FRIDAY.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------

THE NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE AT 500 AM THIS MORNING...FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT
SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 800 AM LATER THIS MORNING.

$$

CHAN

[hurricanes1234]

Looks like a typhoon to me. Could this be the start of explosive deepening?

[cycloneye]

Here is Dr Jeff Masters discussion of Francisco.

Tropical Storm Francisco is headed towards Japan

It's been an active October for typhoons in the Western Pacific, and there is at least one more typhoon on the way. Tropical Storm Francisco has formed in the waters east of the Philippines, and is forecast to become a major Category 4 typhoon by Sunday as it heads north-northwest towards Japan. Both the GFS and European models predict that Francisco will come very close to Japan on Wednesday, October 23. Satellite images show that Francisco has already developed an impressive area of heavy thunderstorms with very cold cloud tops, and is strengthening. Francisco's formation gives the Western Pacific 27 named storms so far in 2013. That is the average number of named storms the Western Pacific sees during an entire year. The last time there were more than 27 tropical storms or typhoons in the West Pacific was in 2004, when there were 32.

[wxman57]

Yes, appears to be nearing typhoon strength. Could be a Cat 3 by tomorrow.

[hurricanes1234]

Current trends make me think that this season will have at least 30 storms. I didn't know 27 was the amount seen in an entire year, so we do have one basin that is above-average in 2013. Maybe 35 storms by the end of the year? That would really be well above-normal.


The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[cycloneye]

Up top 60kts at 18z Best Track.

26W FRANCISCO 131016 1800 11.1N 143.0E WPAC 60 978

[hurricanes1234]

Pressure dropped by 18 mbar in 6 hours and winds rose by 30 mph in the same amount of time. Sign that rapid deepening has likely begun.

[cycloneye]

JMA upgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

WTPQ20 RJTD 161800
RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY
NAME STS 1327 FRANCISCO (1327) UPGRADED FROM TS
ANALYSIS
PSTN 161800UTC 11.2N 142.7E FAIR
MOVE SW 07KT
PRES 990HPA
MXWD 050KT
GUST 070KT
30KT 150NM
FORECAST
24HF 171800UTC 13.1N 142.1E 70NM 70%
MOVE NNW SLOWLY
PRES 975HPA
MXWD 065KT
GUST 095KT
48HF 181800UTC 15.9N 140.9E 110NM 70%
MOVE NNW 08KT
PRES 960HPA
MXWD 075KT
GUST 105KT
72HF 191800UTC 18.5N 138.6E 160NM 70%
MOVE NW 09KT
PRES 950HPA
MXWD 080KT
GUST 115KT =

[ManilaTC]

If this spaghetti ensemble verifies, this doesnt bode too good at all. The STR south of China to become the main steering mecha in the coming days.



Uploaded with ImageShack.us

[cycloneye]

Peak is now at 125kts.

WTPN31 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING NR 004
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHWESTPAC
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
161800Z --- NEAR 11.1N 143.0E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 225 DEGREES AT 04 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 11.1N 143.0E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
170600Z --- 11.4N 142.7E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 025 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
025 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
115 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 355 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
171800Z --- 12.8N 142.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
035 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
125 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 350 DEG/ 08 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
180600Z --- 14.4N 142.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
135 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 07 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
181800Z --- 15.7N 141.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
130 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 315 DEG/ 09 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
191800Z --- 18.3N 139.0E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 125 KT, GUSTS 150 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 135 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
135 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
201800Z --- 21.4N 136.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 115 KT, GUSTS 140 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 10 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
211800Z --- 25.1N 134.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
REMARKS:
162100Z POSITION NEAR 11.2N 142.9E.
TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT
161800Z IS 14 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 170300Z, 170900Z, 171500Z AND
172100Z.//

[cycloneye]

21:00 UTC Prognostic Reasoning

There is still low confidence on track and intensity.

WDPN33 PGTW 162100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 26W (FRANCISCO) WARNING
NR 04//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 26W (FRANCISCO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 192 NM
SOUTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY (EIR) DEPICTS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING SYSTEM WITH IMPROVED
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND AN INCREASINGLY DEFINED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 161623Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE IMAGE
SHOWS A RAPID IMPROVEMENT IN STRUCTURE AS A MICROWAVE EYE HAS BECOME
APPARENT AND DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS STARTED TO WRAP ALMOST
COMPLETELY AROUND. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE EIR LOOP
AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN INCREASED TO 60 KNOTS WHICH IS SUPPORTED
BY OBJECTIVE INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN A
SUBJECTIVE DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM PGTW OF 55 KNOTS TO
REFLECT THE RAPID INCREASE IN STRUCTURE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A POINT SOURCE IS BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER THE SYSTEM
WHICH IS CREATING AN INCREASINGLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH ROBUST
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND LOW (05-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TS
FRANCISCO IS CURRENTLY IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT AS THE SYSTEM
IS DISPLACED WELL TO THE SOUTH OF THE STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE ALTHOUGH DUE TO THE RECENT
RAPID INTENSIFICATION THE INTENSITY AND WIND RADII FORECAST HAS BEEN
INCREASED.
B. TS 26W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE IN THIS WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT THROUGH THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM CONSOLIDATES
SOUTH OF THE STR. AFTER TAU 12, THE STR IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND
MODIFY, WHICH WILL FORCE TS 26W TO TURN POLEWARD THROUGH TAU 48.
AFTER TAU 48, THE STR WILL CONTINUE TO BUILD SOUTH OF JAPAN AND
STEER TS 26W TO A MORE NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS OF LOW VWS, WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES,
AND GOOD OUTFLOW WITH AN EXPECTED FURTHER INCREASE IN POLEWARD
OUTFLOW, WILL ALLOW FOR TS 26W TO REACH OF PEAK INTENSITY OF 125
KNOTS BY TAU 72.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TS 26W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST
ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. SLOW WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE SYSTEM BEGINS TO TRACK ALONG COOLER SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES TO THE SOUTH OF JAPAN. THE NUMERIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT AND THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS LAID CLOSE TO THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH ONLY SLIGHT VARIANCES IN TRACK AND
TRANSLATIONAL SPEED. HOWEVER, DESPITE THIS, GIVEN THE CURRENT WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT AND THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION, LOW
CONFIDENCE REMAINS IN THE FORECAST.//

[SouthDadeFish]

Very well organized for only a tropical storm:

[hurricanes1234]

What is wrong with the SSD Floater for Francisco? It's down since 19:01 UTC.

[ManilaTC]

MTSAT may be down, as even RAMMB has images from 1901... Checking JMA...

[cycloneye]

MTSAT may be down, as even RAMMB has images from 1901... Checking JMA...

MTSAT came back.

[xtyphooncyclonex]

This is going to be a monster. Will this be a Cat 5?

FRANCISCO is Spanish for Francis though.

(BTW: My place has been experiencing strong aftershocks, I'm from Cebu)

[euro6208]

seems to be stationary southwest of guam...

francisco on the verge of becoming our 13th typhoon so far...

very active last half of the year...

[ManilaTC]

seems to be stationary southwest of guam...

francisco on the verge of becoming our 13th typhoon so far...

very active last half of the year...

In that case, it may be starting to begin its poleward move.

[hurricanes1234]

This is going to be a monster. Will this be a Cat 5?

FRANCISCO is Spanish for Francis though.

(BTW: My place has been experiencing strong aftershocks, I'm from Cebu)

I am actually surprised that this was a WPAC name, sounds more like an EPAC name or ATL name. I like the name though. I hope the aftershocks over there end soon.

[cycloneye]

00z Best Track up to Typhoon status at 70kts.

26W FRANCISCO 131017 0000 11.0N 142.8E WPAC 70 970