ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

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ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#1 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:35 am

BULLETIN
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORMS IN THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.0N 55.1W
ABOUT 650 MI...1045 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 40 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1010 MB...29.83 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 AM EDT...1500 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION
THIRTEEN WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.0 NORTH...LONGITUDE 55.1
WEST. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST AT 8 MPH...13
KM/H. THIS GENERAL MOTION SHOULD CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT 24
HOURS...FOLLOWED BY A TURN TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 35 MPH...55 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. SOME SLIGHT STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT DAY OR
SO...AND THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST TO BECOME A TROPICAL STORM
LATER TODAY OR TONIGHT. HOWEVER...WEAKENING IS LIKELY TO BEGIN BY
WEDNESDAY.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1010 MB...29.83 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN



TROPICAL DEPRESSION THIRTEEN DISCUSSION NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 AM EDT MON OCT 21 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF THE LOW PRESSURE AREA WELL EAST-SOUTHEAST OF
BERMUDA HAS CONTINUED TO INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION THIS MORNING.
SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A LONG CURVED BAND OVER THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION...WITH A SMALL CLUSTER OF CONVECTION
ON THE EAST SIDE OF THE PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CENTER. AN
ASCAT PASS LAST NIGHT SUGGESTED THAT THE CENTER WAS BECOMING BETTER
DEFINED...AND THE INCREASE IN CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION SUPPORTS
INITIATING ADVISORIES ON THIS SYSTEM. A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE
OF T2.0 FROM TAFB IS THE BASIS FOR THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT.

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 040/07. THE DEPRESSION IS FORECAST
TO BE STEERED NORTHEASTWARD AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-
LEVEL RIDGE LOCATED NEAR 27N 47W DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO. AFTER
THAT TIME...THE CYCLONE SHOULD BECOME EMBEDDED IN NEARLY ZONAL
FLOW ALONG 30N AND TURN EAST-NORTHWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION. THE NHC
TRACK FORECAST IS NEAR BUT JUST AHEAD OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
TO ACCOUNT FOR THE FASTER GFS SOLUTION.

THE DEPRESSION IS CURRENTLY IN DIFFLUENT FLOW ON THE NORTHEAST SIDE
OF AN UPPER-TROPOSPHERIC LOW NORTH OF PUERTO RICO. THE POSITION OF
THE TROPICAL CYCLONE RELATIVE TO THIS FEATURE SHOULD KEEP THE
WESTERLY SHEAR LOW ENOUGH DURING THE NEXT 24 TO 36 HOURS TO ALLOW
FOR SOME INTENSIFICATION WHILE THE DEPRESSION MOVES OVER WARM
WATERS. BEYOND 36 HOURS...GLOBAL MODELS SHOW INCREASING WESTERLY
SHEAR THAT IS LIKELY TO CAUSE A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE.
DISSIPATION IS FORECAST BY 96 HOURS...ALTHOUGH IT COULD OCCUR
SOONER. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS NEAR THE SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT
THROUGH 36 HOURS AND THE NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS FOR THE
REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/1500Z 28.0N 55.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 22/0000Z 28.9N 54.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 22/1200Z 29.6N 52.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/0000Z 30.1N 50.5W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1200Z 30.4N 48.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/1200Z 31.4N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#2 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 21, 2013 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013

...TWELFTH TROPICAL STORM OF THE SEASON FORMS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.9N 54.9W
ABOUT 635 MI...1020 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNE OR 30 DEGREES AT 7 MPH...11 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 28.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 54.9 WEST. LORENZO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH-NORTHEAST NEAR 7 MPH...11 KM/H. A TURN
TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IS EXPECTED TONIGHT...FOLLOWED BY A TURN
TOWARD THE EAST-NORTHEAST ON TUESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. SOME ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS POSSIBLE DURING
THE NEXT DAY OR SO...WITH WEAKENING LIKELY BY WEDNESDAY.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 80 MILES...130 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN


TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 2
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013

THE SATELLITE PRESENTATION OF THE CYCLONE HAS BECOME BETTER
ORGANIZED SINCE THIS MORNING. A CURVED BAND CONSISTING OF COLD-
TOPPED CONVECTION HAS LENGTHENED AND BECOME BETTER DEFINED...EVEN
THOUGH THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF THE CYCLONE IS EXPOSED AT THE
WESTERN TIP. IN ADDITION...A 1254 UTC ASCAT-A PASS HAD A COUPLE OF
34-KT WIND VECTORS EAST-SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THE
EARLIER ASCAT PASS...THE DEPRESSION IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL STORM
WITH AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 35 KT.

THE ASCAT PASSES AND FIXES FROM VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY TODAY HAVE
ALLOWED FOR A BETTER ASSESSMENT OF THE INITIAL MOTION WHICH IS
ESTIMATED TO BE 030/06...TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ESTIMATE.
THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY REMAINS THE SAME. LORENZO SHOULD BE STEERED
NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND THEN NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO
AROUND THE NORTHWEST SIDE OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AFTER THAT TIME...
THE CYCLONE SHOULD TURN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN EDGE
OF NEARLY ZONAL FLOW NEAR 30N. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS ADJUSTED
SIGNIFICANTLY TO THE LEFT OF THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO A MORE
NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY INITIAL MOTION...AND IS JUST AHEAD OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TO BETTER MATCH THE FASTER GFS/ECMWF
SOLUTIONS.

SOME INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE
CYCLONE IS OVER WARM WATERS AND IN THE DIFFLUENT FLOW EAST OF AN
UPPER-LEVEL CYCLONIC SHEAR AXIS. BY 36 HOURS...SHIPS OUTPUT SHOWS A
CONSIDERABLE INCREASE IN WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT SHOULD
RESULT IN A DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN 2 TO 3 DAYS. THE GUIDANCE
SHOWS THE REMNANT CIRCULATION IS LIKELY TO DISSIPATE AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING BAROCLINIC ZONE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. THE NHC INTENSITY
FORECAST IS RAISED SLIGHTLY OVER THE PREVIOUS ONE...AND IS
GENERALLY NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS BUT A BIT LOWER THAN THE
SHIPS/LGEM OUTPUT.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 21/2100Z 28.9N 54.9W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 29.5N 53.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 29.9N 52.5W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 30.3N 51.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 23/1800Z 30.9N 49.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 24/1800Z 33.0N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#3 Postby cycloneye » Mon Oct 21, 2013 9:34 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013

...LORENZO MOVING NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.3N 53.8W
ABOUT 685 MI...1100 KM ESE OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...40 MPH...65 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NE OR 55 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1008 MB...29.77 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM LORENZO WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 53.8 WEST. LORENZO IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHEAST NEAR 9 MPH...15 KM/H. AN EAST-
NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION WITH LITTLE CHANGE IN SPEED IS
EXPECTED ON TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 40 MPH...65 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. LITTLE CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48
HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70 MILES...110 KM
TO THE EAST OF THE CENTER.

THE ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 1008 MB...29.77 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...500 AM AST.

$$
FORECASTER BERG



TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 3
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 PM AST MON OCT 21 2013

ALTHOUGH LORENZO CONTINUES TO PRODUCE A WELL-DEFINED CURVED
BAND...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS DISPLACED FROM THE DEEP CONVECTION
AS A RESULT OF 15 KT OF WESTERLY SHEAR. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
REMAINS 35 KT BASED ON SATELLITE ESTIMATES OF T2.5/35 KT FROM TAFB
AND T2.0/30 KT FROM SAB...AND TWO RECENT ASCAT PASSES WHICH SHOWED
MAXIMUM WINDS BETWEEN 30 AND 35 KT. ALL INDICATIONS ARE THAT THE
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR AFFECTING LORENZO SHOULD TURN NORTH-NORTHWESTERLY
AND INCREASE TO NEAR 30 KT BY 36 HOURS...WHICH WOULD ALSO HELP
DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF THE CYCLONE TO INFILTRATE THE CIRCULATION.
THEREFORE...THE INTENSITY IS EXPECTED TO BE NEARLY STEADY DURING
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AND THEN DECREASE THEREAFTER. THE SHEAR...COLDER
WATER...AND DRIER AIR SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A
REMNANT LOW AND DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4 DAYS. IF THE ECMWF AND UKMET
MODEL SOLUTIONS HOLD TRUE...LORENZO COULD DISSIPATE ABOUT A DAY
EARLIER THAN INDICATED IN THE NHC FORECAST.

RECENT FIXES INDICATE THAT LORENZO HAS TURNED NORTHEASTWARD WITH AN
INITIAL MOTION OF 055/8 KT. THE CYCLONE IS LOCATED ALONG THE
SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES BUT JUST OUTSIDE
OF THE STRONGEST STEERING FLOW. THEREFORE...LORENZO IS FORECAST TO
MOVE EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD AND MAINTAIN A CONSTANT SPEED
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS...AND THEN TURN BACK TO THE NORTHEAST AND
ACCELERATE JUST BEFORE DISSIPATION. THE UPDATED NHC TRACK FORECAST
HAS BEEN SHIFTED A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE BUT NOT QUITE AS
FAR SOUTH AS THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS TVCA.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0300Z 29.3N 53.8W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1200Z 29.7N 52.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0000Z 29.9N 50.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 23/1200Z 30.2N 49.6W 40 KT 45 MPH
48H 24/0000Z 30.7N 48.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
72H 25/0000Z 32.5N 45.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#4 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 22, 2013 5:26 am

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 4
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

ALTHOUGH DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN INCREASING DURING THE PAST SEVERAL
HOURS...MICROWAVE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
LOCATED NEAR THE SOUTHWESTERN EDGE OF THIS DEEP CLOUDINESS. THE
LATEST DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB...SAB...AND UW-CIMSS ADT
SUPPORT MAINTAINING THE INITIAL WIND SPEED AT 35 KT. LORENZO COULD
STRENGTHEN A LITTLE TODAY BEFORE NORTHWESTERLY WIND SHEAR INCREASES
SUBSTANTIALLY. THE GFS AND ECMWF MODELS SHOW THE VERTICAL
CIRCULATION BECOMING HIGHLY TILTED IN ABOUT 24 HOURS DUE TO THE
STRONG SHEAR. IN ADDITION...DRIER AIR AND DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ALONG THE EXPECTED TRACK OF LORENZO SHOULD AID IN THE
WEAKENING PROCESS. THE CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE IN 3 TO 4
DAYS...BUT THERE IS SOME GUIDANCE THAT SHOWS THIS OCCURRING SOONER.

LORENZO IS GRADUALLY TURNING TO THE RIGHT...AND THE LATEST INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE IS 070/7. AN EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO EASTWARD MOTION
IS EXPECTED DURING THE NEXT DAY OR SO WHILE THE STORM MOVES IN THE
WESTERLY FLOW ON THE NORTH SIDE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
WEAKENING CYCLONE IS FORECAST TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD BY LATE
WEDNESDAY OR THURSDAY AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT...AND ONLY SMALL CHANGES WERE MADE TO
THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/0900Z 29.5N 53.0W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/1800Z 29.7N 51.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/0600Z 29.9N 50.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 23/1800Z 30.2N 49.3W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/0600Z 30.8N 48.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/0600Z 32.8N 45.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER CANGIALOSI
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#5 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 22, 2013 1:22 pm

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 5
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 AM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED OVERNIGHT
AND THIS MORNING. A BURST OF CONVECTION SEVERAL HOURS AGO HAS
MORPHED INTO A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST WITH A BAND WRAPPING AROUND
THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE CIRCULATION. A SERIES OF MICROWAVE
IMAGES HAVE ALSO SHOWN A MID-LEVEL EYE THAT IS NOT COINCIDENT WITH
THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER DUE TO ABOUT 20 KT OF WESTERLY VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR. UNLIKE YESTERDAY...HOWEVER...THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER IS
UNDERNEATH THE CONVECTIVE CLOUD CANOPY. A BLEND OF TAFB/SAB DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES AND THE LATEST ADT VALUES IS USED TO RAISE THE
INITIAL INTENSITY TO 45 KT.

ANY FURTHER INTENSIFICATION OF LORENZO...IF ANY...IS LIKELY TO OCCUR
SOON SINCE THE CYCLONE SHOULD ENCOUNTER A SUBSTANTIAL INCREASE IN
NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR AND MOVE OVER GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES WITHIN 12 TO 24 HOURS. THE INCREASE IN SHEAR SHOULD
DISRUPT THE VERTICAL INTEGRITY OF CIRCULATION AND CAUSE A
DECOUPLING OF THE CYCLONE IN 24 TO 36 HOURS. THE SYSTEM IS LIKELY
BECOME AN OPEN TROUGH AHEAD OF AN ADVANCING FRONT BY 72 HOURS. THE
NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS RAISED IN THE VERY SHORT TERM TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE GREATER INITIAL WIND SPEED...BUT LIKE THE PREVIOUS
ONE...SHOWS RAPID WEAKENING BY 48 HOURS. DISSIPATION IS NOW
FORECAST A DAY SOONER IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GLOBAL MODEL GUIDANCE.

LORENZO HAS BEEN MOVING WITH MORE OF AN EASTWARD COMPONENT OF
MOTION...AND THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 075/07. THE CYCLONE
SHOULD BE STEERED EAST-NORTHWESTWARD DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO
BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO
THE NORTH. THE TRACK SHOULD BEND MORE TOWARD THE NORTHEAST IN ABOUT
48 HOURS AS THE STEERING FLOW BECOMING SOUTHWESTERLY AHEAD OF A
COLD FRONT. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF THE
PREVIOUS ADVISORY THROUGH 36 HOURS BUT NOT AS FAR RIGHT AS THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 29.5N 52.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 29.6N 50.8W 45 KT 50 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 29.8N 49.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 30.3N 48.7W 35 KT 40 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 31.3N 47.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
72H 25/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#6 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 22, 2013 3:36 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

...LORENZO TURNS EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN SOON...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.4N 51.2W
ABOUT 830 MI...1335 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 6
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

THE EARLIER TREND OF ORGANIZATION ENDED LATE THIS MORNING...AND
THERE HAS BEEN SOME DEGRADATION OF THE CLOUD PATTERN OF LORENZO
SINCE THAT TIME. THE CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE HAS BECOME MORE
ASYMMETRIC...WITH MOST OF THE DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED EAST OF
CIRCULATION CENTER DUE TO GRADUALLY INCREASING WEST-NORTHWESTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 3.0 FROM TAFB
AND SAB...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS MAINTAINED AT 45
KT. A BLAST OF NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR ASSOCIATED WITH A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE NORTHEASTERN ATLANTIC SHOULD
REACH LORENZO WITHIN 24 HOURS WHILE THE CYCLONE MOVES OVER
GRADUALLY DECREASING SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS A RESULT...THE
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW LORENZO SHEARING APART IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...WITH
THE REMNANT CIRCULATION BECOMING AN OPEN TROUGH BETWEEN 48 AND 72
HOURS. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY LOWER THAN THE
PREVIOUS ONE AND A BIT LOWER THAN THE INTENSITY GUIDANCE.

CENTER FIXES SUGGEST THAT LORENZO IS LIKELY MOVING JUST NORTH OF DUE
EAST OR 085/08. HOWEVER...CIRRUS CLOUD DEBRIS HAS BEEN OBSCURING
THE CENTER SINCE THIS MORNING...MAKING THE INITIAL POSITION AND
MOTION SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN. THE RATIONALE FOR THE TRACK FORECAST IS
UNCHANGED. LORENZO SHOULD CONTINUE MOVING GENERALLY EASTWARD TO
EAST-NORTHEASTWARD DURING THE NEXT 24 HOURS BETWEEN A MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE SOUTH AND A BELT OF WESTERLIES TO THE NORTH. THE TRACK
SHOULD BEND NORTHEASTWARD BY 36 HOURS WHEN THE CYCLONE BECOMES
EMBEDDED IN A SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW AHEAD OF A TROUGH DIGGING OVER THE
WESTERN ATLANTIC. THE NHC TRACK FORECAST IS HAIR TO THE RIGHT OF
THE PREVIOUS ONE TO ACCOUNT FOR THE MORE EASTERLY INITIAL MOTION
AND NEAR BUT RIGHT OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/2100Z 29.4N 51.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/0600Z 29.5N 50.1W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 23/1800Z 29.8N 49.2W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/0600Z 30.5N 48.2W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 24/1800Z 31.7N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER KIMBERLAIN
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#7 Postby cycloneye » Tue Oct 22, 2013 9:40 pm

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM LORENZO ADVISORY NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

...LORENZO MOVING EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...EXPECTED TO WEAKEN ON WEDNESDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...29.6N 50.0W
ABOUT 895 MI...1440 KM E OF BERMUDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...50 MPH...85 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...E OR 85 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1003 MB...29.62 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 PM AST TUE OCT 22 2013

SHEAR ANALYSES FROM THE UNIVERSITY OF WISCONSIN INDICATE THAT
DEEP-LAYER SHEAR NEAR LORENZO HAS TURNED OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AND
INCREASED TO NEARLY 25 KT. AS A CONSEQUENCE...MOST OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS BEEN PUSHED TO THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL
CENTER. THERE HAVE BEEN NO ASCAT PASSES OVER LORENZO SINCE THIS
TIME YESTERDAY...SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KT BASED ON
ESTIMATES FROM INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY. VERTICAL SHEAR IS
EXPECTED TO INCREASE EVEN FURTHER TO AROUND 40 KT OUT OF THE NORTH
WITHIN 24 HOURS...AND WEAKENING IS THEREFORE FORECAST TO BEGIN VERY
SOON. THE COMBINED INFLUENCE OF VERY STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER
WATERS SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO TO DEGENERATE TO A REMNANT LOW IN 48
HOURS. THE UPDATED NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE
INTENSITY CONSENSUS AND UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND
IT STILL SHOWS DISSIPATION IN 3 DAYS.

LORENZO IS LOCATED JUST TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE AND JUST
TO THE SOUTH OF FAST MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES...WHICH ARE STEERING
THE CYCLONE EASTWARD AT 085/8 KT. WEAKER LOW-LEVEL FLOW SHOULD
EXERT A GREATER INFLUENCE ON STEERING AS THE CYCLONE BECOMES MORE
SHALLOW...AND LORENZO IS EXPECTED TO TURN SLOWLY NORTHEASTWARD OVER
THE NEXT 36 HOURS AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THERE ARE
SOME SPEED DIFFERENCES AMONG THE TRACK GUIDANCE...WITH THE GFS AND
ECMWF MODELS SHOWING A FASTER MOTION COMPARED TO THE GFDL AND HWRF
MODELS. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST HEDGES TOWARD THE GLOBAL MODEL
SCENARIOS AND IS THEREFORE A LITTLE FASTER THAN THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCA...ESPECIALLY AT 36 AND 48 HOURS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0300Z 29.6N 50.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1200Z 29.8N 49.2W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0000Z 30.3N 48.4W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1200Z 31.4N 47.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0000Z 32.6N 45.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0000Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BERG
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#8 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 23, 2013 5:30 am

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013

A TRMM PASS FROM 0247Z NICELY SHOWED THE SEPARATION OF THE LOW- AND
MID-LEVEL CLOUD FEATURES DUE TO NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR. DESPITE THE
SHEAR...LORENZO IS MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION AND THE DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB WERE T3.0...45 KT. AN ASCAT
PASS FROM 00Z MISSED THE CENTER BUT DID INDICATE THAT
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS DO NOT EXTEND VERY FAR IN THE EASTERN
SEMICIRCLE. BOTH THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATE THAT THE SHEAR WILL
INCREASE OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO BEFORE SHARPLY DECREASING...
HOWEVER BY THAT POINT LORENZO SHOULD BE MOVING OVER MUCH COOLER
WATERS. CONSEQUENTLY...A STEADY WEAKENING TREND IS EXPECTED.
LORENZO SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS...AND WITH
ANY LUCK...SOONER THAN THAT.

THE TRACK FORECAST THINKING IS UNCHANGED. THE CYCLONE IS MOVING
EASTWARD TO THE NORTH OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE. AS THE SHEAR INCREASES
AND THE DEEP CONVECTION SEPARATES OVER THE NEXT DAY OR SO...A TURN
TO THE NORTHEAST IN THE LOW-LEVEL FLOW IS EXPECTED AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST MAINLY BLENDS THE
GFS AND ECMWF GUIDANCE AND IS JUST A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/0900Z 29.6N 49.2W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 23/1800Z 30.0N 48.4W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 24/0600Z 30.6N 47.6W 35 KT 40 MPH
36H 24/1800Z 31.6N 46.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/0600Z 32.7N 45.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/0600Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#9 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:45 am

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 AM AST WED OCT 23 2013

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES SHOW A STRONGLY SHEARED TROPICAL
CYCLONE...WITH THE MAIN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION DISPLACED WELL TO
THE SOUTHEAST OF THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION BY STRONG
UPPER-LEVEL NORTHWESTERLY WINDS. BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK T- AND
CI-NUMBERS...THE INTENSITY IS REDUCED TO 40 KT FOR THIS ADVISORY.
DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL RELAX BRIEFLY IN
24-36 HOURS AS AN UPPER-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE SHIFTS EASTWARD AND COMES
IN PHASE WITH LORENZO. BY THAT TIME HOWEVER...IT IS ANTICIPATED
THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONE WILL HAVE WEAKENED SO MUCH THAT IT WILL
BE UNABLE TO TAKE ADVANTAGE OF THESE CONDITIONS. THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST...LIKE THE PREVIOUS ONE...CALLS FOR THE SYSTEM TO
DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW BY 48 HOURS AND TO DISSIPATE
COMPLETELY THEREAFTER. THIS IS ALSO SHOWN BY MOST OF THE NUMERICAL
GUIDANCE.

THE FORWARD MOTION HAS SLOWED SOMEWHAT AND THE CYCLONE IS NOW MOVING
EASTWARD NEAR 5 KT. LORENZO IS CURRENTLY MOVING ALONG THE NORTHERN
SIDE OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE. ASIDE FROM THE SLOWER
MOTION...THE TRACK FORECAST AND REASONING ARE MOSTLY THE SAME.
GLOBAL MODELS SHOW A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE BUILDING TO THE EAST
OF LORENZO DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO. THIS...ALONG WITH FLOW
AHEAD OF AN APPROACHING COLD FRONT...SHOULD CAUSE LORENZO OR ITS
REMNANT LOW TO TURN NORTHEASTWARD. THE OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO THE LATEST DYNAMICAL MODEL CONSENSUS...TVCN.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/1500Z 29.5N 49.0W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0000Z 29.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1200Z 30.5N 47.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0000Z 31.5N 46.5W 30 KT 35 MPH
48H 25/1200Z 32.7N 44.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#10 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 23, 2013 3:37 pm

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013

LORENZO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
40 KT WHICH IS THE MEAN OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
BECOME EVEN HIGHER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE
TEMPORARILY RELAXING WHEN A 200-MB ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER LORENZO
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE BEEN SO DISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE
TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS...AND LORENZO
SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF NOT
SOONER.

LORENZO HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY AND JUST SOUTH OF EAST TODAY.
NONETHELESS...ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHT
BUILDING OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AS
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF LORENZO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ONLY A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 29.3N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 30.8N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 31.8N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 33.1N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#11 Postby cycloneye » Wed Oct 23, 2013 9:38 pm

TROPICAL STORM LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
500 PM AST WED OCT 23 2013

LORENZO REMAINS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF STRONG NORTHWESTERLY SHEAR...
WITH MOST OF THE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS SITUATED WELL TO THE
SOUTHEAST AND EAST OF THE CENTER. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS KEPT AT
40 KT WHICH IS THE MEAN OF DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY NUMBERS FROM
TAFB AND SAB. DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR WILL
BECOME EVEN HIGHER WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...BEFORE
TEMPORARILY RELAXING WHEN A 200-MB ANTICYCLONE MOVES OVER LORENZO
IN ABOUT 36 HOURS. HOWEVER...BY THAT TIME THE CYCLONE WILL
PROBABLY HAVE BEEN SO DISRUPTED BY THE SHEAR THAT IT WILL BE UNABLE
TO MAKE A COMEBACK. THE NHC INTENSITY FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE
LATEST HWRF AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE MODEL PREDICTIONS...AND LORENZO
SHOULD DEGENERATE INTO A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HOURS IF NOT
SOONER.

LORENZO HAS MOVED VERY SLOWLY AND JUST SOUTH OF EAST TODAY.
NONETHELESS...ALL OF THE TRACK GUIDANCE INDICATES A TURN TOWARD THE
NORTHEAST WITHIN 12 HOURS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE SLIGHT
BUILDING OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE EAST OF THE CYCLONE AS
SHOWN BY THE GLOBAL MODELS...AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING FLOW AHEAD
OF A COLD FRONT TO THE NORTHWEST OF LORENZO. THE OFFICIAL TRACK
FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ONE AND ONLY A LITTLE SOUTH OF
THE MODEL CONSENSUS.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 23/2100Z 29.3N 48.7W 40 KT 45 MPH
12H 24/0600Z 29.9N 48.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
24H 24/1800Z 30.8N 47.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 25/0600Z 31.8N 46.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 25/1800Z 33.1N 44.2W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 26/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER PASCH
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Re: ATL: LORENZO - Advisories

#12 Postby cycloneye » Thu Oct 24, 2013 9:52 am

POST-TROPICAL CYCLONE LORENZO DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL132013
1100 AM AST THU OCT 24 2013

DRY AIR AND NORTHERLY SHEAR HAS TAKEN ITS TOLL ON LORENZO. THE
SYSTEM HAS NOT HAD ANY ORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION FOR OVER 12 HOURS
AND HAS BECOME A SWIRL OF LOW CLOUDS. AS A RESULT...LORENZO HAS
DEGENERATED INTO A REMNANT LOW AND THIS WILL BE THE FINAL NHC
ADVISORY ON THIS SYSTEM. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS LOWERED TO 25
KT...IN ACCORDANCE WITH A DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATE FROM TAFB AND A
RECENT ASCAT PASS. ALTHOUGH THE VERTICAL SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
DECREASE DURING THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS...DRY AIR AND COOLING SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALONG THE FORECAST TRACK SHOULD CAUSE THE LOW
TO CONTINUE TO GRADUALLY SPIN DOWN. THE LOW IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE BY LATE FRIDAY AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL BE MOVING
EASTWARD OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC.

THE LOW IS MOVING NORTHEASTWARD AT ABOUT 5 KT. THE CYCLONE SHOULD
CONTINUE HEADING NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL DISSIPATION AS IT REMAINS
WITHIN LOW-LEVEL SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 24/1500Z 30.2N 47.6W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
12H 25/0000Z 31.0N 46.9W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
24H 25/1200Z 32.0N 45.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
36H 26/0000Z 33.0N 44.5W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER BROWN
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