WPAC: INVEST 92W

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Meow

WPAC: INVEST 92W

#1 Postby Meow » Wed Nov 20, 2013 12:37 am

Image

WWJP25 RJTD 200000
WARNING AND SUMMARY 200000.
WARNING VALID 210000.
...
SUMMARY.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1008 HPA AT 03N 105E WEST SLOWLY.
...

JAPAN METEOROLOGICAL AGENCY.=

It is unclear if this was 91W, which was also recognised by JMA as a tropical depression.
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#2 Postby dexterlabio » Wed Nov 20, 2013 2:28 am

If GFS forecast pans out, could be another Phailin this year.
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#3 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 20, 2013 6:45 am

It's 91W. Wish JT wasn't so inconsistent when it comes to renumbering disturbances
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Re: WPAC: Tropical Depression 92W

#4 Postby euro6208 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 10:36 am

india might have to watch out...whatever is left of this LPA might actually strengthen a whole lot in the BOB.
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#5 Postby Alyono » Wed Nov 20, 2013 4:15 pm

significant intensification is almost assured in the BOB
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#6 Postby wxman57 » Wed Nov 20, 2013 4:40 pm

It's definitely not a tropical depression currently. Japan tends to call any area of low pressure a "depression".
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#7 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:06 am

Image

Latest...
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#8 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 9:37 am

AN AREA OF CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.0N 101.6E,
APPROXIMATELY 459 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK, THAILAND. RECENT INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION OVER AN
ILL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE LLCC IS
CURRENTLY CENTERED OVER THE MALAY PENINSULA AS DEPICTED BY A 210450Z
OSCAT PASS. THE DISTURBANCE IS CURRENTLY IN AN EXTREMELY FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT LOCATED SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS WITH
EASTERLY DIFFLUENCE ALOFT, AND IS UNDER LOW TO MODERATE (10-15
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. AS THE DISTURBANCE EMERGES BACK OVER
WATER IT WILL ENCOUNTER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OF 29-31 DEGREES
CELSIUS AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT CONDUCIVE FOR
RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1004 MB. DUE TO THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS AND CONTINUED
INDICATIONS OF DEEPENING FROM VARIOUS MODELS, THE POTENTIAL FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#9 Postby Grifforzer » Thu Nov 21, 2013 1:33 pm

from the India Meteorological Department...

A low pressure area would emerge over south Andaman sea during next 24 hours and concentrate rapidly into a depression.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#10 Postby euro6208 » Thu Nov 21, 2013 1:53 pm

NRL has the LLC at 6.0 101.6 which is right inland near the thailand/malaysia border with flaring deep convection offshore.
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Re: WPAC: INVEST 92W

#11 Postby euro6208 » Fri Nov 22, 2013 9:30 am

Image


WTIO21 PGTW 220930
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
165 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 5.8N 99.8E TO 8.8N 94.3E WITHIN
THE NEXT 06 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE
OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE
AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT
220900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 6.1N
99.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.7E, IS NOW
LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 99.1E, APPROXIMATELY 455 NM SOUTH OF BANGKOK,
THAILAND. RECENT MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS
BEGUN TO CONSOLIDATE AFTER IT MOVED OFFSHORE FROM THE MALAY PENINSULA
INTO THE ANDAMAN SEA. RECENT SCATTEROMETRY DATA DEPICT A WELL-FORMED
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH 25-30 KNOT WIND BARBS ALONG THE
NORTHWEST QUADRANT. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS
SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW TO MODERATE
(10-15 KNOT) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS); HOWEVER, THE VWS IS
EASILY OFFSET BY EXCELLENT WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE. AS THE DISTURBANCE
MOVES FURTHER WEST INTO WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-31 DEGREES
CELSIUS) AND POCKETS OF FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, THERE IS A GOOD
CHANCE FOR RAPID DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE
ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
230930Z. //
NNNN


TXIO28 KNES 220932
TCSNIO

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (92W)

B. 22/0830Z

C. 6.2N

D. 98.7E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. GT 0.2
BANDING YIELDS A DT OF 1.0. MET AND PT ARE 1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...RAMIREZ
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#12 Postby hurricanes1234 » Fri Nov 22, 2013 5:36 pm

SSTS are up to 31°C?! Does this mean another system here that becomes intense? :(
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#13 Postby Alyono » Fri Nov 22, 2013 6:26 pm

This is no longer a WPAC system. It is in the NIO. Thread should be moved
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