BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Message
Author
stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

Re:

#41 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 08, 2013 12:39 am

weathernerdguy wrote:what did the 11.8 meant?


11.8 is the latitude.

update
DATE/ TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
08/0230 UTC 12.0N 84.6E T4.5/4.5 MADI
0 likes   

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#42 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Dec 08, 2013 1:56 am

Cyclone Madi at 65kt with outflow enhanced by subtropical jet

Image
0 likes   

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#43 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 08, 2013 2:22 am

Rapid intensification .

Image
0 likes   

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

Re:

#44 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 08, 2013 2:57 am

Alyono wrote:I'm thinking my 95 KT peak forecast is going to be well too low


Image


Think 95 KT peak will be to high

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

Grifforzer
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 418
Joined: Thu Feb 26, 2009 11:27 pm

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#45 Postby Grifforzer » Sun Dec 08, 2013 4:23 am

India Meteorological Department
BOB08-2013/Advisory no. 15

At 11:30 AM IST, the severe cyclonic storm MADI over southwest Bay of Bengal moved slightly north northeastward, intensified into a very severe cyclonic storm and now lays center near 12.3N 84.7E, about 490 km east southeast of Chennai and 560 km northeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka).

It would intensify further and move slightly north northeastwards slowly.

According to satellite imagery, the Dvorak intensity of the system is T4.0. It has a ragged eye. Associated broken low/medium clouds with embedded intense to very intense convection is seen over the area between 10.0N to 18.0N and 80.5E to 88.0E. The lowest cloud top temperature due to convection is about -80C.

Maximum sustained winds near the center is 65 knots with gusts of 75 knots. The state of the sea is phenomenal around the center of the system. The central pressure estimated at 986 hPa.

IMD Estimated Forecast And Intensity
========================
12 HRS 13.1N 84.8E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
24 HRS 13.7N 84.9E - 70-75 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
48 HRS 14.4N 85.1E - 65-70 knots (Very Severe Cyclonic Storm)
72 HRS 14.9N 85.3E - 55-60 knots (Severe Cyclonic Storm)

-----------------
advisory has been slightly changed to understand easier.. but is based on the India Meteorological Department data.
0 likes   

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#46 Postby stormkite » Sun Dec 08, 2013 4:29 am

Think it will jog to the W then track WSW and weaken.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

User avatar
Hurricane_Luis
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 723
Age: 25
Joined: Sat Jun 23, 2012 3:14 pm
Location: Tiptree, Essex, United Kingdom
Contact:

Re:

#47 Postby Hurricane_Luis » Sun Dec 08, 2013 6:19 am

weathernerdguy wrote:what did the 11.8 meant?


Its the coordinates. 11.8 degrees North of the Equator. And 84.5 degrees East of the Prime Meridian.
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#48 Postby euro6208 » Sun Dec 08, 2013 7:37 pm

interesting. IMD and JT in perfect agreement with intensity at 65 knots.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#49 Postby hurricanes1234 » Mon Dec 09, 2013 5:35 pm

Doesn't this look stronger than 60 knots? There is a small eye like feature near the center, and it is surrounded by very cold cloudtops.

Image

Image
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#50 Postby stormkite » Mon Dec 09, 2013 7:24 pm

hurricanes1234 wrote:Doesn't this look stronger than 60 knots? There is a small eye like feature near the center, and it is surrounded by very cold cloudtops.





No to stronger and yes there was a visible eye at 14.98 -85.37.
Image



Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products
0 likes   

dexterlabio
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3405
Joined: Sat Oct 24, 2009 11:50 pm

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#51 Postby dexterlabio » Mon Dec 09, 2013 8:30 pm

Going downhill....
0 likes   
Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#52 Postby supercane4867 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 1:39 am

Madi has intensified since this morning with an eye clearly apparent

TPIO10 PGTW 100625
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 06B (MADI)
B. 10/0530Z
C. 15.5N
D. 85.3E
E. THREE/MET7
F. T5.0/5.0/D1.5/24HRS STT: D1.0/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 FOR EYE ADJUSTMENT TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.0. MET YIELDS A 4.5 AND PT YIELDS A 5.0. DBO PT DUE TO
CONSTRAINTS (CHANGE OF 1.5 PER 12HRS).
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
BERMEA

Image
0 likes   

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

#53 Postby stormkite » Tue Dec 10, 2013 4:30 am

TXIO29 KNES 100858
TCSNIO

A. 06B (MADI)

B. 10/0830Z

C. 15.9N

D. 85.4E

E. THREE/MET-7

F. T4.5/5.0/D0.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/AMSU

H. REMARKS...DT=4.5 BASED ON LG EMBEDDED CENTER. PT=4.0. MET=4.0. FT IS
BASED ON DT. POSITION BASED ON REMNANTS OF EYE TYPE FEATURE IN VISIBLE
DATA BUT 0716Z AMSU IMPLIES LOW LEVEL CENTER STARTING TO REFORM FURTHER
WEST.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

10/0355Z 15.5N 85.2E AMSU

...SCHWARTZ

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
On the loop of Madi almost stationary.
0 likes   

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#54 Postby hurricanes1234 » Tue Dec 10, 2013 7:39 am

Madi has begun to weaken now. Best Track is down to 60 knots.

06B MADI 131210 1200 15.1N 84.9E IO 60 978
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.

User avatar
weathernerdguy
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 188
Age: 21
Joined: Wed Jul 10, 2013 8:44 pm

#55 Postby weathernerdguy » Tue Dec 10, 2013 11:12 am

it has no convection except a little band north of the center and ADT is showing 92 knots.. :lol:
0 likes   
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

stormkite
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 672
Joined: Fri Sep 13, 2013 3:59 am

Re:

#56 Postby stormkite » Tue Dec 10, 2013 4:44 pm

weathernerdguy wrote:it has no convection except a little band north of the center and ADT is showing 92 knots.. :lol:



Yeah it looks like a dogs breakfast on the sat-pic.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
HURAKAN
Professional-Met
Professional-Met
Posts: 46086
Age: 37
Joined: Thu May 20, 2004 4:34 pm
Location: Key West, FL
Contact:

#57 Postby HURAKAN » Tue Dec 10, 2013 11:50 pm

Image

MADI exposed
0 likes   

Spin
Tropical Low
Tropical Low
Posts: 35
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2013 1:38 pm

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#58 Postby Spin » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:26 am

Madi's making a comeback., which I certainly didn't expect.

Image
0 likes   

User avatar
euro6208
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 18547
Joined: Mon Mar 08, 2004 7:50 pm
Location: Guam

Re: BOB: MADI - Cyclonic Storm

#59 Postby euro6208 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 10:57 am

No longer a TC. Good news for India.
0 likes   
Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...

NWS for the Western Pacific

https://www.weather.gov/gum/

hurricanes1234
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2903
Joined: Sat Jul 28, 2012 6:19 pm
Location: Trinidad and Tobago

#60 Postby hurricanes1234 » Wed Dec 11, 2013 2:22 pm

Great news for India. I don't think they need any more devastation after Phailin.
0 likes   
PLEASE NOTE: With the exception of information from weather agencies that I may copy and paste here, my posts will NEVER be official, since I am NOT a meteorologist. They are solely my amateur opinion, and may or may not be accurate. Therefore, please DO NOT use them as official details, particularly when making important decisions. Thank you.


Return to “2013”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 12 guests