EPAC: JIMENA - Post-Tropical
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Been waiting for a 40+ ACE storm (John, Ioke etc), Jimena seems like a good candidate. 20+ seems a lock
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- Yellow Evan
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Re:
Ntxw wrote:Been waiting for a 40+ ACE storm (John, Ioke etc), Jimena seems like a good candidate. 20+ seems a lock
GFS keeps this at sub-940 through September 6. If that were somehow to verify, that'd put 50 ACE units in the picture.
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- Yellow Evan
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:00 N Lon : 123:09:04 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 956.5mb/109.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C
Scene Type : EYE
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 210000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:00 N Lon : 123:09:04 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 956.5mb/109.8kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 5.9 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +13.5C Cloud Region Temp : -65.7C
Scene Type : EYE
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UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:08 N Lon : 123:18:21 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.3mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +8.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.8 degrees
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 28 AUG 2015 Time : 220000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:08 N Lon : 123:18:21 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.3mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 5.9 6.0
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 17 km
Center Temp : +8.6C Cloud Region Temp : -66.4C
Scene Type : EYE
Positioning Method : RING/SPIRAL COMBINATION
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 85km
- Environmental MSLP : 1012mb
Satellite Name : GOES15
Satellite Viewing Angle : 19.8 degrees
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- cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane
Indeed CrazyC83
EP, 13, 2015082900, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1237W, 105, 961, HU
EP, 13, 2015082900, , BEST, 0, 124N, 1237W, 105, 961, HU
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Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
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TXPZ21 KNES 290025
TCSENP
A. 13E (JIMENA)
B. 29/0000Z
C. 12.3N
D. 123.6W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
RESULTING IN A MET OF 5.0. PT IS 5.5. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG AND
SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THE 6-HOUR AVERAGE SUBJECTIVE DT CALCULATED HOURLY ENDING
AT 0000Z WAS 5.6. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
TCSENP
A. 13E (JIMENA)
B. 29/0000Z
C. 12.3N
D. 123.6W
E. ONE/GOES-W
F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS
H. REMARKS...SYSTEM HAS INTENSIFIED RAPIDLY OVER THE LAST 24 HOURS
RESULTING IN A MET OF 5.0. PT IS 5.5. WMG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN MG AND
SURROUNDED BY W RESULTING IN A DT OF 5.5 AFTER 1.0 IS ADDED AS AN EYE
ADJUSTMENT. THE 6-HOUR AVERAGE SUBJECTIVE DT CALCULATED HOURLY ENDING
AT 0000Z WAS 5.6. FT IS BASED ON DT.
I. ADDL POSITIONS
NIL
...TURK
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- Yellow Evan
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:44 N Lon : 123:36:13 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.3mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.6C
Scene Type : EYE
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:44 N Lon : 123:36:13 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 954.3mb/112.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.2 6.2
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km
Center Temp : +11.4C Cloud Region Temp : -67.6C
Scene Type : EYE
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane
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M a r k
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Re: EPAC: JIMENA - Hurricane
Code: Select all
* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* JIMENA EP132015 08/29/15 00 UTC *
TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 105 113 119 124 125 127 126 121 112 110 107 102 98
V (KT) LAND 105 113 119 124 125 127 126 121 112 110 107 102 98
V (KT) LGE mod 105 117 126 132 137 141 139 127 114 102 91 81 71
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP
SHEAR (KT) 8 4 6 5 6 8 8 11 11 10 12 8 10
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -5 -5 -3 0 0 4 7 7 8 3
SHEAR DIR 21 48 22 5 3 20 5 357 7 38 51 26 11
SST (C) 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.3 29.1 28.7 28.3 27.9 27.5 27.3 27.1 27.0
POT. INT. (KT) 158 157 158 158 158 156 152 148 143 138 135 132 130
200 MB T (C) -51.0 -51.3 -51.4 -51.1 -50.6 -51.1 -50.3 -50.7 -50.1 -50.5 -49.9 -50.3 -49.9
TH_E DEV (C) 8 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
700-500 MB RH 68 66 63 60 58 56 53 54 55 55 55 56 59
MODEL VTX (KT) 26 27 28 30 29 32 35 38 37 40 41 42 43
850 MB ENV VOR 21 36 48 57 62 73 84 78 79 77 86 87 93
200 MB DIV 95 96 102 107 105 72 70 30 33 12 28 0 25
700-850 TADV -3 -3 -3 -3 0 0 -7 -2 6 4 4 3 1
LAND (KM) 1827 1878 1933 1975 2021 2117 2230 2227 1970 1771 1629 1519 1442
LAT (DEG N) 12.4 12.5 12.7 13.1 13.4 14.2 15.1 15.9 16.6 17.1 17.4 17.7 17.9
LONG(DEG W) 123.7 124.6 125.5 126.4 127.3 129.3 131.7 134.1 136.4 138.2 139.5 140.5 141.2
STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 9 9 10 12 12 12 10 8 5 4 3
HEAT CONTENT 32 32 35 38 42 47 24 16 33 27 23 12 8
FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1
T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 563 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 9.3 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)
INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. -1. -4. -9. -15. -20. -26. -31. -35. -37.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. 5.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 7. 10. 10. 9. 6. 3. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -14. -14. -14.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 4. 8. 13. 17. 16. 20. 23. 24. 25.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 7.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 8. 14. 19. 20. 22. 21. 16. 7. 5. 2. -3. -7.
** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)
12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 25.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.7
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 5.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 52.6 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 9.3 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 35.8 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ 0.4
D200 (10**7s-1) : 101.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 99.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 69.2 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.3/ 0.0
Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 50% is 3.5 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 50% is 6.7 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 50% is 8.8 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 50% is 13.5 times the sample mean( 4.3%)
## ANNULAR HURRICANE INDEX (AHI) EP132015 JIMENA 08/29/15 00 UTC ##
## STORM NOT ANNULAR, SCREENING STEP FAILED, NPASS=5 NFAIL=2 ##
## AHI= 0 (AHI OF 100 IS BEST FIT TO ANN. STRUC., 1 IS MARGINAL, 0 IS NOT ANNULAR) ##
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- Yellow Evan
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:30 N Lon : 123:43:23 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 952.1mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : +10.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C
Scene Type : EYE
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:21:30 N Lon : 123:43:23 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.0 / 952.1mb/115.0kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.0 6.3 6.3
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km
Center Temp : +10.0C Cloud Region Temp : -69.0C
Scene Type : EYE
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Re:
Yellow Evan wrote:If the CDO can smooth itself, I think Cat 5 is possible within 12 to 24 hours.
I agree, easily will be strongest storm in this basin this year thus far (heck western hemisphere). That tail is usually indicative of a very powerful cyclone and good inflow. What is your guess for peak? 140-145 knots?
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:If the CDO can smooth itself, I think Cat 5 is possible within 12 to 24 hours.
I agree, easily will be strongest storm in this basin this year thus far (heck western hemisphere). That tail is usually indicative of a very powerful cyclone and good inflow. What is your guess for peak? 140-145 knots?
I'll be bold and go 145kts. Even though only 4 other Pacific hurricanes have equaled or eclipsed that mark.
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- Yellow Evan
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:If the CDO can smooth itself, I think Cat 5 is possible within 12 to 24 hours.
I agree, easily will be strongest storm in this basin this year thus far (heck western hemisphere). That tail is usually indicative of a very powerful cyclone and good inflow. What is your guess for peak? 140-145 knots?
I can see anywhere from 125 to 145 knts.
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- Kingarabian
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Re: Re:
Ntxw wrote:Yellow Evan wrote:If the CDO can smooth itself, I think Cat 5 is possible within 12 to 24 hours.
I agree, easily will be strongest storm in this basin this year thus far (heck western hemisphere). That tail is usually indicative of a very powerful cyclone and good inflow. What is your guess for peak? 140-145 knots?
2009 Rick strong.
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RIP Kobe Bryant
- Yellow Evan
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----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 12:20:40 N Lon : 123:46:04 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 950.1mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.5 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km
Center Temp : +10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Date : 29 AUG 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 12:20:40 N Lon : 123:46:04 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.1 / 950.1mb/117.4kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.1 6.5 6.6
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 13 km
Center Temp : +10.1C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C
Scene Type : EYE
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