ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Had a weird dream last night that Wilmington take a direct hit for some reason..

What did it look like? I haven't had a hurricane dream in a long time but I've had a few in the last couple years.

Joaquin looks exactly what I thought it would at this time.

was just the path ... was not in the hurricane..

[chaser1]

Watching clouds clearing out in a huge widening circle around the storm- extends more west in Gulf than before
Also see that the whole storm system is moving S.W. at a steady clip. (not just the center of storm)
Its hard to imagine the ultra sharp turn (on a dime) to the north - rather a more gradual turn.
I wonder if the math has been done - if the digging Trough is located further west in the gulf?

I am not a Pro - and do not claim to be one.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/carb/flash-bd.html

I had also noticed as well, how the overall ridging throughout the Caribbean appeared to be building westward all the way to Yucatan. I suppose the entire premise of such a sudden turn to the north, would be a pretty sharp change in the steering flow. You bring up nuances that are reasonable to consider. Even if the evolution of a strong cut-off low were to materialize as forecast, significant implications on ultimate track and intensity could occur if the cut-off low were to develop later then progged. Also, if this low were to develop but with an even greater positive tilt than expected, such might indicate a weaker trough or stronger ridging beneath it. Another obvious factor would simply be whether this cut-off were to develop a bit further east or further west.

Whether El Nino is causing an unusual impact on larger scale atmospheric conditions, ultimately affecting the dynamic evolution of regional weather features or perhaps someone just spilled Pepsi over all of the Global and Regional model computers..., there's just little doubt that mid to long range forecasting seems to have become somewhat less reliable (at least as such applies to tropical development).

If my theory holds true and If this is the case then this MAY be the costliest error in a recent decade.

From a meteorological perspective, it is not unreasonable to acknowledge any potential risk. However from an objective forecasting perspective, it's not too reasonable to forecast based on a "desired" or "most feared" outcome. Just sayin...

[crimi481]

Is Cuba, Jamaica and Belize out of the picture? lol
Joaquin may out run the approaching trough? (keeps going S.W.) Interesting few days to come

I am not a Pro

[LarryWx]

WTNT31 KNHC 301744
TCPAT1

SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...24.4N 72.9W
PRESENT MOVEMENT...SW OR 230 DEGREES AT 6 MPH...9 KM/H

Compare this 2PM position to the prog from 11 AM advisory for six hours from now: 12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

So, it is still moving SW vs the NHC's progged WSW motion between 11 AM and 8 PM EDT. It has moved from 24.7 N at 11 AM down to 24.4 N at 2 PM. It is now only 0.1 north of the projected 8 PM position. This is suggesting a good chance for another southward adjustment at the 5 PM advisory.

as of right now its following the NHC track quite well.

Aric,
However, the NHC has a net WSW movement between 11 AM and 8 PM EDT:

INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

Between these two points, it would have to go 0.6 W but only 0.4 S. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it went 0.3 W and 0.3 S...straight SW. From now til 8 PM EDT to meet that progged 8 PM position, it could only go another 0.1 S vs having to go 0.3 W...i.e., a turn to WSW. Let's see what happens.

[summersquall]

Had a nice long nap... I see its pretty much on forecast. looking quite good.

Sugar for your coffee?

rarely do coffee but maybe I will today..

Very good. Suspect we are going to be doing a few late, late nights awaiting the Euro runs.

[Hurricane Andrew]

This storm lends more truth to the moniker that it really does take just one.

[summersquall]

For calculating "Closest Point of Approach" for comparisons over time - http://stormcarib.com/closest1.htm
Also, there's a handy list of latitudes and longitudes available on the page.

[Aric Dunn]

Compare this 2PM position to the prog from 11 AM advisory for six hours from now: 12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

So, it is still moving SW vs the NHC's progged WSW motion between 11 AM and 8 PM EDT. It has moved from 24.7 N at 11 AM down to 24.4 N at 2 PM. It is now only 0.1 north of the projected 8 PM position. This is suggesting a good chance for another southward adjustment at the 5 PM advisory.

as of right now its following the NHC track quite well.

Aric,
However, the NHC has a net WSW movement between 11 AM and 8 PM EDT:

INIT 30/1500Z 24.7N 72.6W 70 KT 80 MPH
12H 01/0000Z 24.3N 73.2W 80 KT 90 MPH

Between these two points, it would have to go 0.6 W but only 0.4 S. From 11 AM to 2 PM, it went 0.3 W and 0.3 S...straight SW. From now til 8 PM EDT to meet that progged 8 PM position, it could only go another 0.1 S vs having to go 0.3 W...i.e., a turn to WSW. Let's see what happens.

well I agree, however that tiny little deviation wont be a issue in the long term, now if it decided to do what the euro is seeing then thats a different story. Also remember that without recon even with and partial wobbling eye that center fixes are estimates and in this case i would wager that since there is still some shear that the eye feature we are seeing is tilted a good bit compared to the low level center and given this tilt is probably to the wsw/sw since the shear is predominately from the NE its likely that its a little off.

[Hammy]

This storm lends more truth to the moniker that it really does take just one.

Also a good example of the unpredictability of some.

[LarryWx]

Aric,
Thanks. Good points!

[capepoint]

I am afraid that IF this thing gets too close to NC, we could be looking at much worse problems than a normal 90/100 mph storm would do. Consider that eastern NC has had well over a foot of rain in the past 7 days. Also, there has been significant coastal flooding from high astronomical tides combined with the persistent NE winds of the past week. So the ground is already saturated, ditches are full, and sounds/rivers along the southern and western Pamlico Sound are still 1 to 2 feet above normal. Now add the heavy rain from the cut-off low set-up, which is currently forecast to be over 6 inches, plus the rain from even a glancing blow from Joaquin, and we have some strong warning signs for significant flooding. Now if we get even a gale, with the ground so wet and trees full of foliage, lets just say there will be plenty of firewood for the winter......... along with more coastal flooding and easterly winds compounding the flooding problems.

Not sure we could be looking at Floyd type flooding, but it looks like we will be dealing with some issues across ENC.

[Aric Dunn]

if you go back 12 to 24 hours... check out the anti cyclone slowly progressing ese towards the hurricane.. wont be much longer before this is sitting under a very good outflow channel..

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Hammy]

Given the pressure gradient and recent model runs, I'm starting to wonder if the chances of this reaching major are decreasing--could this be similar to Alex in 2010 where it had Cat 4 pressure but the winds didn't make it out of Cat 2?

[seussianagenda]

According to a friend, Jim Cantore was just spotted in Virginia Beach. Looks like SEVA is in the clear folks.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the pressure gradient and recent model runs, I'm starting to wonder if the chances of this reaching major are decreasing--could this be similar to Alex in 2010 where it had Cat 4 pressure but the winds didn't make it out of Cat 2?

though possible the pressure may end up being low compared to the winds initially since just to its west and nw is a trough as it moves north and approaches the blocking ridge that should not be the case as the right front quad will have a tightening pressure gradient.

[tatertawt24]

According to a friend, Jim Cantore was just spotted in Virginia Beach. Looks like SEVA is in the clear folks.

I have to admit, it's strengthening slower than I thought it would. I figured it would have RI'd by now.

[Aric Dunn]

According to a friend, Jim Cantore was just spotted in Virginia Beach. Looks like SEVA is in the clear folks.

I have to admit, it's strengthening slower than I thought it would. I figured it would have RI'd by now.

none of the models had it really deepen until late wed into thursday once the shear dropped and the upper divergence set up..

[tolakram]

Looks like it's doing quite well.

[LarryWx]

Given the pressure gradient and recent model runs, I'm starting to wonder if the chances of this reaching major are decreasing--could this be similar to Alex in 2010 where it had Cat 4 pressure but the winds didn't make it out of Cat 2?

though possible the pressure may end up being low compared to the winds initially since just to its west and nw is a trough as it moves north and approaches the blocking ridge that should not be the case as the right front quad will have a tightening pressure gradient.

I agree with Aric per model progs. The winds should start "catching-up" (at least somewhat) to the pressure Friday and especially Sat. due to it increasingly butting up against high pressure to the NE.

[Sanibel]

San Salvador:


Winds from NW 32mph


Gusts to 39mph