ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

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windnrain
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#1021 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:41 am

Northwest, not stalled like last nights run
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1022 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:42 am

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#1023 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:43 am

NNE

Slightly west of previous run
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1024 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:45 am

Image
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#1025 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:46 am

Ok, so now time to see if it goes full euro or cuts back inland.
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#1026 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:47 am

Its a little slower on the NE than last run. Compare:

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1027 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:49 am

Image
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#1028 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:50 am

due south of previous run, OTS?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1029 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:52 am

So far a tad to the southwest. Also ex-Ida doesn't seem to be impinging the circulation as much.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1030 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:52 am

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#1031 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:53 am

:uarrow: I can see the ridging building in down from SE Canada on that run. Look for the potential hook left on the runs to follow.
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#1032 Postby 1900hurricane » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:53 am

Don't think it's an out to sea solution.

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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1033 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:54 am

full rez, 60h

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#1034 Postby HurrMark » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:55 am

My guess is it will be somewhat west of 06Z.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1035 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:56 am

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#1036 Postby windnrain » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:57 am

Perhaps hooking?
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1037 Postby northjaxpro » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:58 am

HurrMark wrote:So far a tad to the southwest. Also ex-Ida doesn't seem to be impinging the circulation as much.


Nope. Not at all. At least on this particular run .90L looks rather weak, does not seem to be opening a weakness for Joaquin on this run.
Last edited by northjaxpro on Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#1038 Postby gatorcane » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:59 am

GFS at 93 hours it is heading NE still....no evidence of a hook and the U.S. looks like it may escape on this run

The ECMWF may just have this correct folks.
Last edited by gatorcane on Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:00 am, edited 2 times in total.
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#1039 Postby CrazyC83 » Thu Oct 01, 2015 10:59 am

Looks a lot like the 00Z solution. But regardless so close...a touch more to the right and it escapes, a touch more to the left and it comes ashore.
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Re: ATL: JOAQUIN - Models

#1040 Postby tolakram » Thu Oct 01, 2015 11:00 am

Still NE. I have to go, but I suspect this will continue NE.

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