ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

New track is very similar to the 12z GFS run.

Starting to look like a recurve. Like Floyd.

No offese, but I don't consider Floyd a recurve.

No offense taken. but Floyd is a classic recurve hurricane. Recurves are ones that come from the central or eastern Atlantic in the trade wind flow and then recurve northward and eventually eastward around the Bermuda High. They are called that whether they hit the southeast coast or not.

[NDG]

hurricane Floyd in 1999.

I don't think Floyd got as close as Andros Island. I don't recall any recent hurricane making landfall on Andros and not making landfall on FL.

Floyd missed Andros by a hair. And Sandy went over Andros in 2012, though it came from the SSE.

You are getting the Islands confused, check the tracks and check where Andros is.

[ozonepete]

I don't think Floyd got as close as Andros Island. I don't recall any recent hurricane making landfall on Andros and not making landfall on FL.

Floyd missed Andros by a hair. And Sandy went over Andros in 2012, though it came from the SSE.

OOPS!! I was thinking Abaco Island the whole time. Never mind. Sorry guys. I will look some more.

[NDG]

Floyd missed Andros by a hair. And Sandy went over Andros in 2012, though it came from the SSE.

OOPS!! I was thinking Abaco Island the whole time. Never mind. Sorry guys. I will look some more.

I know, they are very confusing to me as well, too many islands

[HurriGuy]

I may be wrong, but that exposed llc we saw on visible…..is it is dissipating?

Hard to tell, maybe convection is filling it in. Anyone care to share their opinions? Maybe a new llc forms under the convection?

[Hammy]

I may be wrong, but that exposed llc we saw on visible…..is it is dissipating?

Hard to tell, maybe convection is filling it in. Anyone care to share their opinions? Maybe a new llc forms under the convection?

It looks like it's getting covered by high clouds due to the sun angle.

Convection firing again, will we be getting an overnight/early morning recon again tomorrow?

[ozonepete]

I may be wrong, but that exposed llc we saw on visible…..is it is dissipating?

Hard to tell, maybe convection is filling it in. Anyone care to share their opinions? Maybe a new llc forms under the convection?

It looks like it's getting covered by high clouds due to the sun angle.

Convection firing again, will we be getting an overnight/early morning recon again tomorrow?

Yup, you have it right.

[wjs3]

OOPS!! I was thinking Abaco Island the whole time. Never mind. Sorry guys. I will look some more.

I was just there a few weeks ago. You'd love the place, Pete.

You can still clearly see where Floyd cut Elbow Cay in half and locals still talk about it!

[tropicwatch]

NHC might have shifted the cone to the right some but they also widened the area of uncertainty to include close to all of the Florida peninsula.

[ElectronicPR]

Can someone have a look at the doppler

http://www.meteofrance.gp/previsions-me ... r/antilles

Is that both circulations trying to regroup?

[CW0262]

good point!

[wxman57]

I may be wrong, but that exposed llc we saw on visible…..is it is dissipating?

Hard to tell, maybe convection is filling it in. Anyone care to share their opinions? Maybe a new llc forms under the convection?

You may not be wrong. Erika is looking more like a remnant low now. Recon couldn't find any TS winds on the last flight, but the NHC left winds at 45 mph just in case there were some someplace. Center is more detached from the convection now and it may well dissipate soon. That doesn't mean it couldn't re-form later.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

The 18z GFS shows a near perfect upper-level setup once Erika reaches the very warm waters north of the Caribbean. If what the GFS is forecasting comes true, I'm concerned we'll be dealing with something a lot stronger than a Category 1 hurricane.

Still a lot to work out over the coming days.

[TheStormExpert]

I may be wrong, but that exposed llc we saw on visible…..is it is dissipating?

Hard to tell, maybe convection is filling it in. Anyone care to share their opinions? Maybe a new llc forms under the convection?

You may not be wrong. Erika is looking more like a remnant low now. Recon couldn't find any TS winds on the last flight, but the NHC left winds at 45 mph just in case there were some someplace. Center is more detached from the convection now and it may well dissipate soon. That doesn't mean it couldn't re-form later.

What's your latest thoughts on where this might head? Do you think Florida is still in the woods?

[AutoPenalti]

The 18z GFS shows a near perfect upper-level setup once Erika reaches the very warm waters north of the Caribbean. If what the GFS is forecasting comes true, I'm concerned we'll be dealing with something a lot stronger than a Category 1 hurricane.

Still a lot to work out over the coming days.

No where near Florida on that run correct?

[wjs3]

NHC might have shifted the cone to the right some but they also widened the area of uncertainty to include close to all of the Florida peninsula.

It looks that way, but they don't change the size of the cone--in this case the orientation certainly changed. Not the size, though.

You can animate the cones here and see:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2015/gr ... p_5W.shtml

Rules for the cone:

NHC tropical cyclone forecast tracks can be in error. This forecast uncertainty is conveyed by the track forecast "cone", the solid white and stippled white areas in the graphic. The solid white area depicts the track forecast uncertainty for days 1-3 of the forecast, while the stippled area depicts the uncertainty on days 4-5. Historical data indicate that the entire 5-day path of the center of the tropical cyclone will remain within the cone about 60-70% of the time. To form the cone, a set of imaginary circles are placed along the forecast track at the 12, 24, 36, 48, 72, 96, and 120 h positions, where the size of each circle is set so that it encloses 67% of the previous five years official forecast errors. The cone is then formed by smoothly connecting the area swept out by the set of circles

[Bocadude85]

NHC might have shifted the cone to the right some but they also widened the area of uncertainty to include close to all of the Florida peninsula.

In my opinion they will shift the track further offshore. Probably show the track over Grand Bahama heading north.

[SFLcane]

How can you put any stock on the model runs though on a naked swirl?

[bahamaswx]

Refiring some deep thunderstorms.

[ConvergenceZone]

I may be wrong, but that exposed llc we saw on visible…..is it is dissipating?

Hard to tell, maybe convection is filling it in. Anyone care to share their opinions? Maybe a new llc forms under the convection?

You may not be wrong. Erika is looking more like a remnant low now. Recon couldn't find any TS winds on the last flight, but the NHC left winds at 45 mph just in case there were some someplace. Center is more detached from the convection now and it may well dissipate soon. That doesn't mean it couldn't re-form later.

I'm definitely skeptical of it recurving out to sea then if it's weakening like this. I wouldn't be surprised if the track stops shifting east.