ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Refiring some deep thunderstorms.

DMAX should be starting soon.

[Blown Away]

The 18z GFS shows a near perfect upper-level setup once Erika reaches the very warm waters north of the Caribbean. If what the GFS is forecasting comes true, I'm concerned we'll be dealing with something a lot stronger than a Category 1 hurricane.

Still a lot to work out over the coming days.

No where near Florida on that run correct?

@60 miles E of Stuart was closest

[SouthDadeFish]

How can you put any stock on the model runs though on a naked swirl?

Because there is still a vort max to track and the mid-level flow is the same. Nonetheless, with a potential track where 50-100 miles can make a huge difference, any center relocations could play a huge role.

[alienstorm]

I hard to tell from night time infared but it seems to have spit out the llc and a new one may be or has developed further southeast.

[SouthDadeFish]

I hard to tell from night time infared but it seems to have spit out the llc and a new one may be or has developed further southeast.

The NOAA plane is hinting at this.

[Blown Away]

Seemed recent Euro/GFS reached near SFL coast sooner than prior runs... Maybe reach this area before ridge builds west??

[bahamaswx]

I hard to tell from night time infared but it seems to have spit out the llc and a new one may be or has developed further southeast.

Can't see the lower levels under all the convection but there's definitely some mid-level rotation there at the least.

[BucMan2]

How drastically can center reformations change the forecast. Do you have any examples?

[EquusStorm]

Low level center does look pretty weak on the last few visibles of the day despite the robustness of the overall circulation. I think it will survive as a system but the original center does look like it could open up pretty soon.

Just thinking about the possibility of a new low level center trying to develop further east within the deep convection and, I presume, under where the center seems to be at higher levels. I agree that it does sort of look like it might be doing so. Could be interesting.

[SunnyThoughts]

I hard to tell from night time infared but it seems to have spit out the llc and a new one may be or has developed further southeast.

The NOAA plane is hinting at this.

If that is indeed the case, then the models would have to re-adjust and initialize in a different area which in turn could change the track and timing correct? Just initializing the storm 60 to 100 miles in a different direction would have implications I would think considering how close the storm seems to be coming to the east coast. I sure wouldn't want this headache if I were a met, I already have a headache just thinking about it, can't imagine the stress these guys/gals go through at the NHC.


Just opinion, please refer to NHC for up to date information and forecasts.

[ScottNAtlanta]

It sure looks like that latest convection bomb that is going off pulled the feeder bands in looking at the RGB Sat. loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[tolakram]

Live RAMMB loop, set to 30 frames.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=30

[tolakram]

Ha, not sure how many frames they save but here's a full 100 frame loop.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=100

[SunnyThoughts]

Saw this on another board. Interesting about the lightning.

000

URNT12 KWBC 262302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052015
A. 26/22:36:43Z
B. 16 deg 16 min N
059 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 3145 m
D. 27 kt
E. 360 deg 0 nm
F. 091 deg 36 kt
G. 002 deg 67 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 13 C / 3056 m
J. 12 C / 3059 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 1 / 15 nm
P. NOAA3 0305A ERIKA OB 26
STRONG BANDING SE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING SE
MAX FL WIND 36 KT 002 / 67 NM 22:20:49Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 003 / 34 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 20 KTS

[gatorcane]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given what I am seeing with the 18Z guidance, you got think the NHC nudges the track a little more east for the 11pm EST advisory. I wouldn't expect a big shift with only the 18Z guidance, just a slight shift. The NHC track will still be west of the consensus track. If the 00Z guidance shifts east a little more, expect even a more significant shift east tomorrow for the 5AM EST advisory closer or right along the consensus track that could put this system far enough east of Florida that the concern will be far less.

[Bocadude85]

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Given what I am seeing with the 18Z guidance, you got think the NHC nudges the track a little more east. I wouldn't expect a big shift with only the 18Z guidance, just a slight shift.

I agree. They will probably wait to see what the Euro shows before making any huge changes. If the Euro shifts east(which I'm betting it will) then the 5 am advisory will have a bigger shift.

[La Breeze]

Not wishing Erika on anyone, but glad to hear that the GOM is out of the mix (according to our local mets). We shouldn't have to deal with Erika at all here.

[Sanibel]

There's your refire. Black IR (what you don't want to see).

[NDG]

Convection is still to the SE of the LLC but Erika still has a large and well defined circulation.

[CronkPSU]

Saw this on another board. Interesting about the lightning.

000

URNT12 KWBC 262302
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL052015
A. 26/22:36:43Z
B. 16 deg 16 min N
059 deg 04 min W
C. 700 mb 3145 m
D. 27 kt
E. 360 deg 0 nm
F. 091 deg 36 kt
G. 002 deg 67 nm
H. 1006 mb
I. 13 C / 3056 m
J. 12 C / 3059 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 134 / 7
O. 1 / 15 nm
P. NOAA3 0305A ERIKA OB 26
STRONG BANDING SE
FREQUENT LIGHTNING SE
MAX FL WIND 36 KT 002 / 67 NM 22:20:49Z
MAX FL TEMP 14 C 003 / 34 NM FROM FL CNTR
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 180 / 20 KTS

If I remember right (and hope a ProMet clears this up) that is a sign of a weak storm or a developing one (yeah that isn't much help but combined with the better radar presence, I would think this is not good and the storm is strengthening again)...a stronger storm would not have frequent lightning