ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

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Blown Away
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1081 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:29 pm

The GFDL/HWRF have a track record of right biased and building storms quickly... EURO/GFS have to be given more weight for track and both show a weaker system until it reaches SE Bahamas...
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#1082 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:29 pm

HWRF shows 965MB by hour 93 and hasn't even hit the Central Bahamas yet, Mark will post this image soon :eek:
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1083 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:36 pm

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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1084 Postby SFLcane » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:36 pm

Yea see a trend northward in the models rurve out to sea still on table. Bet euro is further north.
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#1085 Postby gatorcane » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:38 pm

:uarrow: Yeah absolutely. My feeling is that the Euro will show a stronger system and a recurve east of Florida but we will see.
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#1086 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:39 pm

I feel like the HWRF is too strong to quickly. but, it makes a little sense since the GFS op did come east and was stronger. I just don't see this being able to escape and not hit FL...
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#1087 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:39 pm

the idea of significant intensification during the next 48 hours is not realistic.

Chucking HWRF and GFDL entirely
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Re:

#1088 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:42 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Yeah absolutely. My feeling is that the Euro will show a stronger system and a recurve east of Florida but we will see.


Last TCVN was farther west??
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Re:

#1089 Postby shortwave » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:43 pm

deltadog03 wrote:I feel like the HWRF is too strong to quickly. but, it makes a little sense since the GFS op did come east and was stronger. I just don't see this being able to escape and not hit FL...



How come, specifically? Strength of the ridge or the axis? or timeing?
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1090 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:43 pm

Still moving NW

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Re:

#1091 Postby Blown Away » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:44 pm

gatorcane wrote::uarrow: Yeah absolutely. My feeling is that the Euro will show a stronger system and a recurve east of Florida but we will see.


NHC has Erika as a 50 mph TS nearing 75W... GFDL/HWRF have a Cat 2+ hurricane...
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Re:

#1092 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:44 pm

Alyono wrote:the idea of significant intensification during the next 48 hours is not realistic.

Chucking HWRF and GFDL entirely

+100000 This is why I am calling BS on the super intensification, and therefore the shift EAST hog wash right now. This is NOT (more than likely) get that strong until its north of PR.
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Re: Re:

#1093 Postby WPBWeather » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:44 pm

deltadog03 wrote:
Alyono wrote:the idea of significant intensification during the next 48 hours is not realistic.

Chucking HWRF and GFDL entirely

+100000 This is why I am calling BS on the super intensification, and therefore the shift EAST hog wash right now. This is NOT (more than likely) get that strong until its north of PR.


TCVN is farther west at the moment.
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Re: Re:

#1094 Postby Alyono » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:45 pm

deltadog03 wrote:
Alyono wrote:the idea of significant intensification during the next 48 hours is not realistic.

Chucking HWRF and GFDL entirely

+100000 This is why I am calling BS on the super intensification, and therefore the shift EAST hog wash right now. This is NOT (more than likely) get that strong until its north of PR.



maybe not until it reaches 75W
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Re: Re:

#1095 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:46 pm

shortwave wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:I feel like the HWRF is too strong to quickly. but, it makes a little sense since the GFS op did come east and was stronger. I just don't see this being able to escape and not hit FL...



How come, specifically? Strength of the ridge or the axis? or timeing?

I think the ridge is too strong, and the weakness will not be enough until its too late. I think the weakness over the SE (i.e. over me, and over Mid-south) will help tug Erika closer to FL. *and help it ventilate the Bahamas*
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1096 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:46 pm

12Z Euro initialized.

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Re: Re:

#1097 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:46 pm

Alyono wrote:
deltadog03 wrote:
Alyono wrote:the idea of significant intensification during the next 48 hours is not realistic.

Chucking HWRF and GFDL entirely

+100000 This is why I am calling BS on the super intensification, and therefore the shift EAST hog wash right now. This is NOT (more than likely) get that strong until its north of PR.



maybe not until it reaches 75W

Agreed!
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models

#1098 Postby tolakram » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:50 pm

HWRF

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#1099 Postby PTrackerLA » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:50 pm

HWRF barely crosses 77W at 120hrs, big shift east
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#1100 Postby deltadog03 » Wed Aug 26, 2015 12:51 pm

Through H12, EURO is a little further south. About the same strength
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