ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[wjs3]

+100000 This is why I am calling BS on the super intensification, and therefore the shift EAST hog wash right now. This is NOT (more than likely) get that strong until its north of PR.

maybe not until it reaches 75W

Agreed!

Not that I need to pile on, but completely agree. The conditions downstream for the next ~48 hours are marginal at best, hostile at worst. I like the way that the GFS opens it up (though that might be a bit overdone, I think it's closer to the right idea and I like it for that). I don't like and don't agree with the quick-intensifying models. They look out of touch to me.

Interested to see the Euro run as we all are.




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[RevDodd]

the idea of significant intensification during the next 48 hours is not realistic.

Chucking HWRF and GFDL entirely

Gotta agree at this point. Given the interior structure of Erika this afternoon, it will take at least that long to straighten out.

[tolakram]

HWRF

[gatorcane]

BIG shift east with the HWRF....what will the ECMWF do?

though as the pro mets noted, HWRF and GFDL are likely ramping this up way too quickly which is allowing more of a northern track.

[tolakram]

HWRF moving almost due north at the end of the run.

[gatorcane]

941MB is that a CAT 5?

[tolakram]

Euro

[tolakram]

Better defined and near the same location as the previous run.

[Hurricane Andrew]

941MB is that a CAT 5?

Windspeed says strong Category 3.

[deltadog03]

EURO about the same so far thru hr42 (6z FRI) Starting to strengthen just north of PR A little stronger it seems, but don't have hi res maps yet avail.

[tolakram]

[Siker]

EURO about the same so far thru hr42 (6z FRI) Starting to strengthen just north of PR A little stronger it seems, but don't have hi res maps yet avail.

It's actually a little bit weaker / SW.

[ROCK]

Notice the 12Z GFS ensembles have a pretty good spread attm....BAMMS suite out of whack also...a lot of "what ifs" with this storm.

[deltadog03]

Hr 66, slightly weaker (hard to tell) and a smidge faster.

[stormlover2013]

rock will you post link?

[SFLcane]

Significant shift east on the 18z models. Hmm I smell things getting a bit fishy around here. Seriously though maybe recon data is causing eastward shift so think might see nhc shift track later tonight or tommorow if trends continue.

[tolakram]

HWRF Parent done, final frame.

[ROCK]

Significant shift east on the 18z models. Hmm I smell things getting a bit fishy around here. Seriously though maybe recon data is causing eastward shift so think might see nhc shift track later tonight or tommorow if trends continue.

18Z models are out at 1CST?

[SFLcane]

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/storminfo/05L_tracks_18z.png

[tolakram]