ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurriGuy]

It's way too far out, but anyway Erika does a loop and comes back into the coast? I see GFS pushed it southeast at the end of its run. Sorry if this is a ridiculous question.

[tatertawt24]

If it's organizing and the recon found lightning, that isn't good.

[OuterBanker]

I'm concerned about media hype shifting from Florida to the Carolinas. Hoping for an
out to sea scenario letting the entire east coast off the hook.

[northjaxpro]

I'm concerned about media hype shifting from Florida to the Carolinas. Hoping for an
out to sea scenario letting the entire east coast off the hook.

Yeah, I understand OuterBanker. Unfortunately, no one is out of the woods with this situation right now. It is still a bit too soon to know one way or another how this is going to shake down. You have to figure more changes will come with the models and we may not know until 36-48 hours from now before it becomes a clearer picture of what will take place down the road with this tropical cyclone. Just stay vigilant.

[SeGaBob]

I was kinda hoping to get some rain out of this... it seems less likely now.



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[tolakram]

Latest with forecast and fixes.

[ozonepete]

Erika still a tropical storm, NE quadrant where basically is convection free so this is all pressure gradient winds.

001330 1707N 05907W 8437 01570 0105 +180 +073 110031 032 037 000 00

I wouldn't call it gradient winds considering the winds were stronger to the east under the deepest convection.


Erika trying to establish some actual outflow to the west and north, but there's a tongue of dry air moving south that could undercut it.

That "dry air" to the north is not really very dry at all. Since it's at least 50% but more likely at least 70% RH it's not dry enough to cause problems.

[tolakram]

Some pretty intense storms firing SE(?) of the center.

[CronkPSU]

might the NWC keep it skimming the coast for a few more updates just for political purposes since there is still a lot of uncertainty?

[galaxy401]

This storm reminds me of last Erika's incarnation in 2009. Same region with heavy convection but sheared.

[SeaBrz_FL]

Gustywind -

Sending best wishes for lots of rain and little damage. Check in soon.

(Sorry...meant to send this as a PM.)

[ozonepete]

Gustywind -

Sending best wishes for lots of rain and little damage. Check in soon.

yeah Gusty. Good luck and stay safe!

[Hammy]

This storm reminds me of last Erika's incarnation in 2009. Same region with heavy convection but sheared.

This just made me realize the current name list, since 1991, 2003 is the only time it's been used in a non-El Nino year.

[ronjon]

Almost looks like the mid-level center which is strong is decoupling from the LLC based on the last visable. Hard to tell what's going with Infared now. RADAR shows a disorganized system. Think it's gonna struggle the next few days.

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Almost looks like the mid-level center which is strong is decoupling from the LLC based on the last visable. Hard to tell what's going with Infared now. RADAR shows a disorganized system. Think it's gonna struggle the next few days.

The low-level circulation has been decoupled from the mid-level circulation since Erika's inception, that's not a new development.

[NDG]

Latest with forecast and fixes.

I think the last fix by DVorak was too far north, the AF recon found the LLC to be at 26.5N, twice at that latitude

[tolakram]

Recon looks to be flying over Guadeloupe. Gusty, go outside and see if you can hear the plane!

More importantly, stay safe!

[Gustywind]

Gustywind -

Sending best wishes for lots of rain and little damage. Check in soon.

(Sorry...meant to send this as a PM.)

Thanks my friend I'm very glad to read that! All the EC is waiting for water, this has been the word of the week water please give us me some water!!!! Watching carefully Erika. I wish you all the very best from Guadeloupe

[NDG]

Erika still a tropical storm, NE quadrant where basically is convection free so this is all pressure gradient winds.

001330 1707N 05907W 8437 01570 0105 +180 +073 110031 032 037 000 00

I wouldn't call it gradient winds considering the winds were stronger to the east under the deepest convection.
http://i.imgur.com/26xSnGY.png

Erika trying to establish some actual outflow to the west and north, but there's a tongue of dry air moving south that could undercut it.

Those winds were found on the NE quadrant, immediately NE of the LLC not to the east of SE where the convection is.
Another thing is the "000" that means there is very little if any rainfall by the time it reads those winds, in another words convection free.

[galaxy401]

In terms of track, we probably have to hope that Erika strengthens quickly so it might take a more northerly pass and miss Florida.