Global model runs discussion

[hurricaneCW]

SW Caribbean storms don't get very strong...wow that is sipmly a mental statement to make!

Anyway if there was one location in the entire basin to keep an eye on in the next week it would be the SW Caribbean, quite a few models are hinting at something but whether or not they are overdoing it is somewhat uncertain.

They generally don't, not if they form there. If they form further west then they can definitely become strong but they don't have much time to get going if they form too close to land.

BTW Irony with "wow that is sipmly a mental statement to make"

[barometerJane61]

I hate BOC and SW Caribbean storms. They last a couple of days, they never get very strong and they are boring plus I doubt anything develops either because models have been all over the place. Only few disturbances ever actually develop meaning it's more fantasy than reality.

Depending on the track and conditions,a storm developing in this area can quickly explode into a cat 4 'cane

[KWT]

They generally don't, not if they form there. If they form further west then they can definitely become strong but they don't have much time to get going if they form too close to land.

BTW Irony with "wow that is sipmly a mental statement to make"

Haha yeah that is great typo there

My comment was simply a retort to the idea that SW Caribbean systems don't become strong...It all depends on track but lets just say Mitch was a SW caribbean system to start with and that was a beast and far from 'boring'..

The simple reason why you don't often get powertrucks down there is simply because the ITCZ/wave belt tends to lift north of that region by the time the meat of the season arrives, so instead those region of greatest instablity is located in the NW of the Caribbean sea instead, but if the SW Caribbean is easily big enough to see a TS become a 145mph hurricane, I'm sure it can give a decent hurricane, as Beta proved IMO in 2005...

Also rather depends on what you mean by exciting, would you class a deadly hurricane exciting or fun

[hurricaneCW]

I know that storms can sometimes organize rapidly but I guess it all depends on the conditions (shear, dry air, water temps, pressures). So it is possible for a storm to grow strong in a relatively small area. When I say exciting and fun, I was referring to more long tracking systems. My favorite storms are the long trackers like Ivan or Isabel because it's fun guessing where they will go, you can watch them grow from small depressions to massive Cat 4/5 storms. Hopefully they go out to sea in time so we don't have to witness death and destruction because I don't wish that upon anybody. Death and destruction is not my idea of fun and exciting.

[ROCK]

SW carib storms dont get strong? Wasnt WILMA a cat 4 at one time? sorry bro your going to take some razing for that statement.......

Besides the CMC is moving this NW at 196hr up towards the Yuc or channel. You should watch the 26degree Isotherm temps....the carib is boiling.

[hurricaneCW]

Maybe I should specify. The region that I am talking about is the area south of Jamaica and between the Honduras/Nicaragua southeastward towards South America. Wilma formed north of that area, which would kind of put it in the NW Caribbean. Storms near the region that I am referring to generally don't have too much space to develop/form or they may even cross over into the pacific and develop there.

[Ivanhater]

Since its slow I thought I'd post the DGEX model

120 hours hurricane hits Louisiana

[StarmanHDB]

SW carib storms dont get strong? Wasnt WILMA a cat 4 at one time? sorry bro your going to take some razing for that statement.......

Besides the CMC is moving this NW at 196hr up towards the Yuc or channel. You should watch the 26degree Isotherm temps....the carib is boiling.

At one point, wasn't Wilma a Cat 5 and isn't she recorded as being the Atlantic basin's most powerful storm to date?

[ROCK]

Since its slow I thought I'd post the DGEX model

120 hours hurricane hits Louisiana

oh that is a good model....just like the good ole AE98 from the old days...

[ROCK]

for anyone who cares.... the Ops GFS has nada the whole run.....

[Wx_Warrior]

same for 0z para gfs....nada...which is an awesome.

[somethingfunny]

You guys are awful...posting the Canadian model for a possible longterm cyclogenesis. FOR SHAME!!!!

[floridasun78]

their not thing in that area unless wave east of islands move all the way across south america make it cross into sw carribbean

[Agua]

Not even a model low for you guys to track.

That's sad.

[StormClouds63]

My guess is it will be about 10 days before our Bonnie appears over the ocean. Not a thing to track right now ... not even a fish or sheared tropical wave.

[KWT]

Still nothing on the ECM out to 10 days, won't be long before the models run into early August...

[cycloneye]

From U.S Hazard Assesment discussion.

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p ... hreats.php

Valid Saturday, July 17, 2010 - Wednesday, July 28, 2010

FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL CYCLONE DEVELOPMENT IN THE ATLANTIC BASIN NEAR THE END OF THIS PERIOD ARE FORECAST BY SEVERAL MODELS.

[KWT]

SAdly the models that develop stuff are the models that either have some sort of convective feedback issue or are well known to overdo development of TCs

[Stormcenter]

I know this may not a popular comment. But I'm excited to read that none of the models are showing any significant development in the near future. We just don't need (not that we ever do) any tropical systems anywhere near the GOM with what's going on there right now. Yeah I know something will eventually perk up but longer it takes the better.

[Blown Away]

I know this may not a popular comment. But I'm excited to read that none of the models are showing any significant development in the near future. We just don't need (not that we ever do) any tropical systems anywhere near the GOM with what's going on there right now. Yeah I know something will eventually perk up but longer it takes the better.

I've seen many similar posts from you and I'm glad you feel like you are always taking the high moral road by not wanting any tropical systems, but I think you should know that most if not all of us passionately wish for the same. Don't forget this is 'Talkin Tropics" and most of us are crazy for tropical systems. We are not wishing for catastrophies by discussing to death some weather model developing a hurricane in a few weeks that could impact land or the cleanup efforts. It's nature, its gonna happen regardless if we wish for it or not and all of us here are ready to track these storms not because we are not aware of the potential catastrophic impacts, but because we love weather!