ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[CalmBeforeStorm]

@RyanMaue: Today's narrative: If TS #Erika is stronger, then it will move north -- recurve further away from Florida. http://t.co/cfW3astplQ

I think the early strength is the key and looking at Erika today and the predicted shear the next couple of days I go with the Euro and GFS for a weaker storm early.

[Alyono]

EC is now starting to ramp this up in the central Bahamas

Run actually looks reasonable

[tolakram]

Looks like a very very close recurve on the Euro.

[deltadog03]

Looks like its very close to West Palm area. At hr 114 and 120 is like right on the coast *or dang close* and sloooooooowly moving NW

edit:
Parallels the coast and still getting stronger it appears. Right along the East coast Heading NNW now

[Steve]

That's more like it, but the 12z CMC no longer crosses into the Gulf. It brushes South FL and stalls or slows along the coast of Southern NC as an apparently powerful system.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

GFS seems to split the energy in North GA with some of it continuing up and out and possibly the lower level (850mb) heading over toward Missouri. Trouble is you can see a reflection at 500mb as well, so it might be that only extreme upper energy splits away up the coast?

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/model-guidance ... roup=Model Guidance&model=gfs&area=namer&cycle=20150826%2012%20UTC&param=850_vort_ht&fourpan=no&imageSize=M&ps=

Not sure either of these will end up being remotely right, but there are certainly downstream implications for those in the SE US if either of these runs was to verify.

[SFLcane]

Definite trend east on the GFS ensembles when compared 00z and 06z

[gatorcane]

Yep Euro has shifted east some on this run as I thought it would - now east of SE Florida but not by much. Euro may hit further up the coast this run.

[stormlover2013]

lol these models have been strugglingggggg

[hurricaneCW]

Didn't we hear that (fish storm) a few days ago? Anyway it really does get kind of comical around here with this model watching.

Significant shift east on the 18z models. Hmm I smell things getting a bit fishy around here. Seriously though maybe recon data is causing eastward shift so think might see nhc shift track later tonight or tommorow if trends continue.

Fish storm? Yeah tell that to the Bahamas if they're dealing with a hurricane. Also just because it may not affect Florida doesn't mean it can't impact places further north. I don't see any significant trough coming in to turn Erika OTS so easily.

[PTrackerLA]

Remember how the 00z Euro trapped Erika, we'll see what happens here.

[deltadog03]

by HR144 its slooooowly moving NNW and just raking the east coast it appears. *or very close to that* Also, looks like its not done strengthening. There is NO real good escape here either. Ridge is firmly build in to its E and NE Might have eyes toward GA/SC/NC

last post from me, for now...but the door has been opened a bit now. It looks like its SC bound. Maybe GA, prob SC/NC on this run.. Its still intensifying as well. I say we see a slight EAST shift from NHC today at 5

[tolakram]

986MB east of melborne moving just west of north.

[gatorcane]

Euro ramping up big time now, 990MB

[Hammy]

What intensity is the full-res Euro showing? I know a few people in Brevard county.

[Hurricane Alexis]

I think the eastward shift on the GFS is probably due to the fact that the model is also showing a stronger system. Similar to how the euro shifted stronger and more east last night.

[tolakram]

[boca]

South Florida luck continues with these storms 5 day cone =no hit

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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SFLcane]

Yep Euro has shifted east some on this run as I thought it would - now east of SE Florida but not by much. Euro may hit further up the coast this run.

Tommorow full recurve. Can't get caught on these run to run. For our sake in south Florida let's hope it does.

[tolakram]

South Florida luck continues with these storms 5 day cone =no hit

Boca, one model run and no disclaimer. Please be careful when you make definitive statements like that.

[gatorcane]

South Florida luck continues with these storms 5 day cone =no hit

Not even close to being out of the woods yet. The Euro is barely offshore SE Florida that run, 00Z run can shift a smidge west and direct hit.