ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Nimbus]

The high altitude outflow is expanding to the WSW without being impinged.
That may not be the current steering layer thpugh.

The storm centered map Kingarabian posted three pages or so ago showed a southern jog with a single frame hinting at a return to the WSW.

Be nice if the storm was actually making a counter clockwise loop to the east.
That might increase chances for the trough to drag the storm ENE.

Of course we have seen upper air patterns do strange things, for example troughs sometimes cut off into lows with rapidly deepening systems EG Andrew 92, Charley 2004.

Best golfer in the world can't make the drive if the shaft of their golf club breaks.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 302201
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 15 20150930
215200 2655N 08041W 3758 08061 0438 -184 -265 206006 007 /// /// 03
215230 2655N 08039W 3757 08064 0438 -184 -266 209006 006 /// /// 03
215300 2656N 08036W 3757 08064 0439 -182 -263 214006 006 /// /// 03
215330 2656N 08033W 3757 08064 0439 -177 -263 178007 008 /// /// 03
215400 2656N 08030W 3757 08064 0438 -177 -281 170008 009 /// /// 03
215430 2657N 08027W 3755 08064 0438 -176 -297 174007 008 /// /// 03
215500 2657N 08025W 3757 08064 0439 -175 -300 159007 008 /// /// 03
215530 2658N 08022W 3757 08064 0439 -175 -294 151006 007 /// /// 03
215600 2658N 08019W 3757 08063 0439 -175 -293 159005 006 /// /// 03
215630 2658N 08016W 3755 08066 0439 -175 -295 169005 005 /// /// 03
215700 2659N 08013W 3755 08064 0439 -175 -298 167005 005 /// /// 03
215730 2659N 08011W 3757 08063 0438 -177 -299 163004 005 /// /// 03
215800 2659N 08008W 3757 08061 0438 -180 -296 168004 004 /// /// 03
215830 2700N 08005W 3757 08061 0437 -180 -292 173003 004 /// /// 03
215900 2700N 08002W 3757 08061 0436 -180 -292 175003 003 /// /// 03
215930 2700N 08000W 3757 08061 0435 -179 -293 142003 003 /// /// 03
220000 2701N 07957W 3757 08061 0436 -174 -296 155003 003 /// /// 03
220030 2701N 07954W 3755 08061 0436 -174 -304 146002 003 /// /// 03
220100 2702N 07951W 3757 08059 0435 -177 -303 131003 003 /// /// 03
220130 2702N 07949W 3757 08060 0435 -177 -300 113003 004 /// /// 03
$$
;

[SunnyThoughts]

Joaquin (11L)
United States Air Force
AF309 - Miss. #05 - Atlantic
High Density (2), Dropsonde (29), Recco (30)
Geopotential Height: 8,060 meters (26,444 feet)
Static Air Pressure: 375.7 mb
Location: 27 statue miles (44 km) to the NE (34°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA

Recon getting closer.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey look a little more clear view of the center.. pretty easy to see in the 1km loop.. at least for the time being its just crawling to the sw


http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/goeseastconusir.html

4

also starting to look more circular on last few visible images.. RGB will help in the next few images.

[blp]

Overall motion continues to be SW as of the 1700 position.

[Kingarabian]

Aric, you think upwelling could soon be a problem?

[Aric Dunn]

Aric, you think upwelling could soon be a problem?

not likely. the depth ( heat content ) is very high. if it were to sit for 2 days maybe.

[floridasun78]

any here now vwhen is forecast for JOAQUIN stop moving sw if keep moving sw be near long islands bahamas islands or andros bahamas islands

[seatrump]

I'm ready for this thing to turn. Everytime someone says it's dropping south my heart skips a beat. Here in Providenciales, Turks and Caicos it has been a very wet stormy day. Winds are out of the west at about 25 miles an hour with persistent rain for the last several hours, showers before. I have put up one or two shutters, more for rain than wind. I don't have glass in my windows, only louver wooden windows - when the rain goes sideways, it finds a way in sooner or later. This is getting a little close to us for comfort but we're watching for the turn away, hopefully overnight. The rain it has brought is very welcome however.

[OuterBanker]

Just got back from all day at the Biltmore. Got calls from employees on what to do. They stated that land fall was now the Outer Banks. Went to TPC and viewed the 5pm projection. Not good of course. Did tell them that it was only the first run. Major problem is that the hype in Hampton Roads and the Outer Banks is already off the charts. I'm voting for the European. Purely personal reasons. Look like I'm going to have to end my vacation early and head home. Give it till tomorrow afternoon.

[1900hurricane]

Could really go for a clean microwave pass about now. It's been since this morning since the last good one.

[floridasun78]

I'm ready for this thing to turn. Everytime someone says it's dropping south my heart skips a beat. Here in Providenciales, Turks and Caicos it has been a very wet stormy day. Winds are out of the west at about 25 miles an hour with persistent rain for the last several hours, showers before. I have put up one or two shutters, more for rain than wind. I don't have glass in my windows, only louver wooden windows - when the rain goes sideways, it finds a way in sooner or later. This is getting a little close to us for comfort but we're watching for the turn away, hopefully overnight. The rain it has brought is very welcome however.

it not far from you it bit north of still moving sw that issue

[AutoPenalti]

any here now vwhen is forecast for JOAQUIN stop moving sw if keep moving sw be near long islands bahamas islands or andros bahamas islands

Well, theoretically the NHC says that the SW turn should stop by Thursday morning-afternoon.

Although, Joaquin looks like it's ahead of schedule and still chugging to the south-west.

[green eyed girl]

Is anyone familiar with how storm surge and flooding affects Virginia Beach during a hurricane? My daughter and her family just moved there a few months ago since her husband is in the navy and we are familiar with hurricanes here in New Orleans, but not in Virginia Beach. They are preparing now just in case it does come their way, but I would like her to have an idea of what she could expect. Thank you!

Research Hurricane Isabel (2003) with a 7-10 foot storm surge.

IF your daughter is next to the water, urge her to pack up all the irreplaceables today and make tentative reservations for a motel/hotel in the west of Richmond (high ground) for Friday/Saturday and beyond. And pack everything needed for 5-7 days of no food, no water, no lights, toilets out... Even though Alexandria VA is inland, they had a major storm surge too. And my house up on a hill in northern VA lost power for three days.


She can always cancel a reservation 24 hours out if the forecasts suddenly become less threatening.

Make sure they book a hotel not near a river. Virginia might see some historic flooding like Camille did in 1969.......MGC[/quot

Thank you all so much!

[floridasun78]

any here now vwhen is forecast for JOAQUIN stop moving sw if keep moving sw be near long islands bahamas islands or andros bahamas islands

Well, theoretically the NHC says that the SW turn should stop by Thursday morning-afternoon.

Although, Joaquin looks like it's ahead of schedule and still chugging to the south-west.

if dont go as plan what happen next question let hope morning it say moving wnw or nw

[AutoPenalti]

Wait and see is the norm from here on forth.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 302231
AF309 0511A JOAQUIN HDOB 18 20150930
222200 2716N 07755W 3757 08052 0428 -163 -287 145003 005 011 001 00
222230 2716N 07752W 3756 08053 0428 -158 -328 143006 006 003 000 00
222300 2716N 07749W 3755 08054 0428 -158 -370 138007 007 006 000 00
222330 2717N 07746W 3755 08054 0428 -159 -394 128007 009 006 000 03
222400 2717N 07743W 3757 08053 0429 -159 -405 118007 009 014 000 03
222430 2717N 07741W 3756 08054 0430 -161 -408 122005 008 014 000 03
222500 2716N 07738W 3757 08054 0431 -165 -406 133003 004 014 000 00
222530 2715N 07736W 3755 08057 0430 -164 -404 121007 009 010 000 00
222600 2714N 07733W 3756 08057 0430 -164 -406 115009 009 014 000 00
222630 2713N 07731W 3755 08057 0430 -165 -408 109008 010 014 000 00
222700 2711N 07729W 3756 08056 0430 -165 -409 111009 010 011 000 00
222730 2710N 07726W 3755 08057 0430 -165 -409 110009 010 008 000 00
222800 2709N 07724W 3757 08054 0430 -166 -410 097007 009 010 000 00
222830 2708N 07721W 3755 08058 0431 -165 -410 102008 009 010 000 00
222900 2706N 07719W 3757 08057 0432 -164 -412 107010 010 010 000 00
222930 2705N 07717W 3756 08057 0431 -165 -412 103009 010 010 001 00
223000 2704N 07714W 3757 08054 0430 -165 -411 104009 009 007 000 00
223030 2703N 07712W 3757 08055 0430 -165 -408 097010 010 012 000 00
223100 2702N 07710W 3755 08058 0430 -165 -408 092010 010 005 000 00
223130 2700N 07707W 3755 08057 0430 -167 -409 093011 011 004 000 00
$$
;

[TheStormExpert]

Aric, you think upwelling could soon be a problem?

not likely. the depth ( heat content ) is very high. if it were to sit for 2 days maybe.

It is also moving South and West where the ocean heat content increases some.

[wxman57]

Is anyone familiar with how storm surge and flooding affects Virginia Beach during a hurricane? My daughter and her family just moved there a few months ago since her husband is in the navy and we are familiar with hurricanes here in New Orleans, but not in Virginia Beach. They are preparing now just in case it does come their way, but I would like her to have an idea of what she could expect. Thank you!

I've run SLOSH (surge model) for a Cat 2 of average size striking near Hatteras from the SE and get a surge height of 6-8 feet in the Virginia Beach area. Could be a bit higher in bays/river inlets. Consider the heavy rain Thu/Fri combined with 10-15" from Joaquin and there will be flooding problems everywhere.

[Alyono]

Is anyone familiar with how storm surge and flooding affects Virginia Beach during a hurricane? My daughter and her family just moved there a few months ago since her husband is in the navy and we are familiar with hurricanes here in New Orleans, but not in Virginia Beach. They are preparing now just in case it does come their way, but I would like her to have an idea of what she could expect. Thank you!

I've run SLOSH (surge model) for a Cat 2 of average size striking near Hatteras from the SE and get a surge height of 6-8 feet in the Virginia Beach area. Could be a bit higher in bays/river inlets. Consider the heavy rain Thu/Fri combined with 10-15" from Joaquin and there will be flooding problems everywhere.

looking at the models, this may be significantly larger than average sized at landfall