ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I was waiting for the 2nd VDM that never arrived, but here is my update on Erika:
http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/08/26/er ... uncertain/

As always, great discussion and blog Jonathan!!

Took the time to read his forecast, very good read. Did not go with one idea and left all options on the table.

[Hammy]

Look at the barbados radar, East of guadeloupe

Looking a bit worse than earlier, still due west, but there looks like there might be new convection about to fire.

[Alyono]

I believe the feature Gator pointed out is the remnant mid level vortex associated with this previous convective burst.

So you are feeling that the LLC is still the original, and a new one is not forming under the new convection.

there is not a new center. You're paying attention to the MLC, which often forms under big bursts. There was too much low level convergence into the LLC to allow for a reformation

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Nice blow up of thunder storms in the last few frames, also looking at the water vapor loop I may be wrong but seems that Erica is producing a decent amount of moisture to fend off the dry air to her north and west.

[Alyono]

This burst will probably die out. Happens quite a bit in high shear environments

[Miami Storm Tracker]

I believe the feature Gator pointed out is the remnant mid level vortex associated with this previous convective burst.

So you are feeling that the LLC is still the original, and a new one is not forming under the new convection.

there is not a new center. You're paying attention to the MLC, which often forms under big bursts. There was too much low level convergence into the LLC to allow for a reformation

Thank you Alyono,

I always follow and read ur post.

[curtadams]

So you are feeling that the LLC is still the original, and a new one is not forming under the new convection.

The new burst is close enough to the old LLC that it could be coming from it given the sheared conditions. The air gets displaced as it's going up. Maybe there was a relatively short displacement, "dragging", or elongation involved; almost impossible to tell from satellite. The burst is so large and stably positioned it almost has to be drawing from an LLC.

[toad strangler]

Note the much calmer shear zone (well modeled) between the islands and the Bahamas.

[Aric Dunn]

Hello all.....

[gatorcane]

Hello all.....

Aric! Haven't seen you on here in a while! Nice to see you

[deltadog03]

Hello all.....

uh oh!! look who made it!

[WPBWeather]

Hello all.....

Welcome back! Explain all , please.

[weatherSnoop]

Hello all.....

I have been wondering where you were hiding

[Aric Dunn]

Its quite apparent from radar that the center is still exposed to the NW side.

[Bocadude85]

Why is Gaudeloupe not under a tropical storm warning? If most of the turbulent weather is south of the center I would think they would get some nasty weather over night.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Well well look what the Cat dragged in, long time how have you been. Would really like your take on this mess.

[northjaxpro]

Welcome back Aric!

[NDG]

Looking at the radar the LLC is still on the NW edge of the deep convection.
Also by looking at the radar I would say that the LLC is located near 16.6N & 60W, IMO

[BobHarlem]

Long run loop of that Barbados radar composite http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?175

[tailgater]

Are we sure there may not be a new center trying to form more ESE of the current LLC which is along the NW fringe of the blob? Look around 57N 17W and the cloud flow around that area. Perhaps it is just at the mid-levels.

http://i.imgur.com/SgZ04ak.gif

Wow that far north GC