None of them are reliable right now, just too many variables.IMO
stormlover2013 wrote:lol these models have been strugglingggggg
ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models
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Stormcenter
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Do you think?
None of them are reliable right now, just too many variables.IMO
None of them are reliable right now, just too many variables.IMO
Last edited by Stormcenter on Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:35 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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tolakram
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Re:
Hammy wrote:What intensity is the full-res Euro showing? I know a few people in Brevard county.
I posted it just above yours. 986MB offshore and stays offshore Florida through 138 hours. (Weatherbell)
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DESTRUCTION5
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
gatorcane wrote:boca wrote:South Florida luck continues with these storms 5 day cone =no hit
Not even close to being out of the woods yet. The Euro is barely offshore SE Florida that run, 00Z run can shift a smidge west and direct hit.
Its going to flip back and forth a few more times Im sure till it gets within 60 hrs.
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Riptide
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
gatorcane wrote:boca wrote:South Florida luck continues with these storms 5 day cone =no hit
Not even close to being out of the woods yet. The Euro is barely offshore SE Florida that run, 00Z run can shift a smidge west and direct hit.
A miss for SFL is likely a hit somewhere else in this pattern. Careful what you wish for tho.
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
980MB due east of the GA/FL border, offshore.
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SFLcane
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
And just like that.... Florida threat ah yea.
@RaleighWx: 18z Spaghetti plots just in, shift east now mostly east of FL. #Erika http://t.co/VGKcyWnQI9
@RaleighWx: 18z Spaghetti plots just in, shift east now mostly east of FL. #Erika http://t.co/VGKcyWnQI9
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
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Re: Re:
AdamFirst wrote:AutoPenalti wrote:I don't see how this could shift east all of the sudden. It hasn't even strengthen at all, and it's still heading West.
HWRF can be considered a high-intensity outlier. It strengthens it rather quickly - an outcome that promets earlier in this thread deemed unrealistic since conditions do not favor steady or quick strengthening over the next two days.
I was looking at yesterday's guidance.
Oops.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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AutoPenalti
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Wouldn't be surprise if models shift back west again.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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tolakram
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Hard right turn at 180 hours, 963MB
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CaneCurious
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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
tolakram wrote:Hard right turn at 180 hours, 963MB
Completely misses the United States on this Euro run. We should all be applauding at that run except it is still very close to SE Florida and Carolinas on this run.
Last edited by gatorcane on Wed Aug 26, 2015 1:46 pm, edited 2 times in total.
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