ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Blown Away]

18z...

[Hammy]

Wouldn't be surprise if models shift back west again.

I agree, too many people get excited/disappointed/relieved over a single model run sometimes.

[tolakram]

[hurricaneCW]

Hard right turn at 180 hours, 963MB

Completely misses the United States on this Euro run. We should all be applauding at that run except it is still very close to SE Florida and Carolinas on this run.

But where's the strong trough or weakness? Yeah we should be applauding but it's most likely incorrect.

[hurricanekid416]

I just dont see how it gets that strong for a recurve but its only one run

[Blown Away]

TVCN consensus shifted hundreds of miles east, normally don't see big moves that quick from TVCN...

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

12Z to 12Z Euro has moved this from central Alabama to off the east coast.

At 210 hours it's still out there, moving very slowly.

[alienstorm]

I am a little skeptical of these runs I will need to see the east shift in 2 consecutive runs. Dont see anything to make me think Erika will ride the east coast of florida. But if the trends continue then I'll buy in.

Thanks

[gatorcane]

Mostly east of Florida now:

[Zarniwoop]

Long time (mostly) lurker.

I live in extreme western Orlando, and I'm a HUGE fan of this track as there is a GIGANTIC live oak that leans over the house we are renting.

Swear to God, where we live could double as sleepy hollow in a movie and so I'm just thrilled with the huge jump east.

Let's hope that it continues to shift and goes to play with the fishes and misses everything once it strengthens.

Disclaimer: I have no idea what I'm talking about.

[tolakram]

[StarmanHDB]

I am a little skeptical of these runs I will need to see the east shift in 2 consecutive runs. Dont see anything to make me think Erika will ride the east coast of florida. But if the trends continue then I'll buy in.

Thanks

Agree wholeheartedly. Respect the trend. The trend is your friend.

[cycloneye]

Levi Cowan ‏@TropicalTidbits · 13s13 seconds ago
Why does #Erika escape out to sea on ECMWF? Because a New England shortwave erodes the ridge. GFS, CMC don't have it.

[Stormcenter]

Not hating on the models here but that should tell you a lot right there. No one is off the hook yet assuming this
does survive the trek and actually strengthens. IMO

12Z to 12Z Euro has moved this from central Alabama to off the east coast.

[stormlover2013]

That trough looked pretty strong on the GFS, if the trough is that strong then it will shift that much

[Bocadude85]

The 12z GFS and Euro would bring some pretty nasty weather to South Florida. The Euro misses the coast by 50 miles. Surprisingly the GFS has been the most consistent so far in my opinion.

[tolakram]

[TheStormExpert]

The 12z GFS and Euro would bring some pretty nasty weather to South Florida. The Euro misses the coast by 50 miles.

Majority of the nasty weather in TC's I thought was on the North and East sides?

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS Ensembles. Where is Florida?