WPAC: DOLPHIN - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

The last typhoon to ever hit Guam was Super Typhoon Pongsona in December of 2002 of an el nino year.

Before that we got hit by Typhoon Chataan in July also 2002.

Typhoons seems to like coming here during el nino year. Before that we got hit by Typhoon Omar in 1992 and Super Typhoon Paka in 1997 both el nino years although i'm not too sure about 1992...

It's every 5 years and we are due for one...

If not Dolphin then i am worried what the rest of the year will bring

[euro6208]

Jim Edds ready to shoot

[cycloneye]

Looks ready to takoff.

[cycloneye]

TPPN11 PGTW 121808

A. TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN)

B. 12/1732Z

C. 9.89N

D. 156.54E

E. FIVE/MTSAT

F. T3.5/3.5/D1.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 38A/PBO SBC/ANMTN. CNVCTN WRAPS 1.0 ON LOG10 SPIRAL
YIELDING A DT OF 3.5. MET AND PT AGREE WITH DT YIELDING A 3.5.
DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


LEMBKE

[RL3AO]

ECMWF 10m winds (Posted on Twitter by Ryan Maue) shows 125kt winds over Guam.

[cycloneye]

STS 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 18:45 UTC, 12 May 2015
<Analyses at 12/18 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°00'(10.0°)
E157°20'(157.3°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 985hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 13/18 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N10°30'(10.5°)
E152°10'(152.2°)
Direction and speed of movement W 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 140km(75NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 14/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°05'(12.1°)
E146°50'(146.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 970hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 15/18 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°00'(14.0°)
E141°40'(141.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(13kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(80kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(115kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM

[cycloneye]

JTWC 21:00 UTC warning:



WDPN32 PGTW 122100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING
NR 25//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED EIR CONTINUES TO SHOW A DEEP CDO
FEATURE OBSCURING THE LLCC. FORMATIVE CONVECTIVE BANDING IS ALSO
CLEARLY VISIBLE. A 121801Z SSMIS REINFORCES THE PRESENCE OF THESE
BANDING FEATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE
AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGERY WHILE THE INTENSITY OF 50 KNOTS IS
HELD DUE TO OBSERVATIONS FROM A 121611Z RSCAT PASS WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN AN
AREA OF LOW VWS AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, AN
EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS STARTED TO PROVIDE A VENTILATION
MECHANISM. THE CYCLONE IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN
PERIPHERY OF AN EXTENSION OF A DEEP-LAYERED STR TO THE NORTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 07W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST THROUGH
TAU 72 AS THE STR TO THE NORTH FLATTENS AND SLOWLY TRACKS TO THE
EAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR CONTINUED
INTENSIFICATION AT FAIRLY STANDARD RATES.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL TRACK MORE TO
THE NORTHWEST AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS THROUGH A BREAK IN THE STR AS THE
MAIN BODY OF THE RIDGE BUILDS AS IT TRACKS TO THE EAST. THE
CONTINUED FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL INCLUDE A VIGOROUS DUAL OUTFLOW
CHANNEL, FAVORING A MORE RAPID INTENSIFICATION TOWARDS THE LATER
TAUS. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT, LENDING HIGH
CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

GFS and EURO now bullseye over Guam...

[HurricaneTracker2031]

Dolphin is intensifying now and will continue to do so gradually for the next 3-4 days. After that, it will be intensifying more greatly. It's looking good now on satelite imagery and that will continue. As for Guam, they may get a close call or direct hit (models now supporting that). We will see.



Synopsis for Dolphin and others: http://goo.gl/F3qooH

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Alyono]

http://manati.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/rsca ... MBas68.png

highest winds as of a few hours ago wer eonly 40 kts. This is running below Dvorak estimates. Not a severe tropical storm.

[Alyono]

ECMWF 10m winds (Posted on Twitter by Ryan Maue) shows 125kt winds over Guam.

he may want to check his units. I suspect that is knots. I am seeing in the full EC about 60-70 kts over Guam, with 80-90 kts just north of the island

[cycloneye]

Typhoon watch issued for Guam.

WTPQ32 PGUM 122132
TCPPQ2

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN (07W) ADVISORY NUMBER 25
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP072015
800 AM CHST WED MAY 13 2015

...TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN MAINTAINING INTENSITY...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR GUAM AND ROTA. TYPHOON
CONDITIONS...INCLUDING WINDS OF 74 MPH AND GREATER ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS NOW IN EFFECT FOR TINIAN AND SAIPAN.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR FANANU IN CHUUK STATE.
TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS...INCLUDING DAMAGING WINDS OF 39 TO 73
MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 24 HOURS.

RESIDENTS OF ULUL IN CHUUK STATE SHOULD CAREFULLY MONITOR THE
PROGRESS OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...9.8N 156.4E

ABOUT 305 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF FANANU
ABOUT 345 MILES EAST-NORTHEAST OF WENO ISLAND CHUUK
ABOUT 465 MILES EAST OF ULUL
ABOUT 810 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND TINIAN
ABOUT 815 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF ROTA
ABOUT 825 MILES EAST-SOUTHEAST OF GUAM

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 7 MPH.

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN
WAS NEAR LATITUDE 9.8 NORTH AND LONGITUDE 156.4 EAST. DOLPHIN
CONTINUES TO MOVE WESTWARD SLOWLY BUT IS EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY
TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST TONIGHT.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS REMAIN AT 60 MPH. TROPICAL STORM DOLPHIN IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND IS LIKELY TO
BECOME A TYPHOON WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 140 MILES FROM THE
CENTER...THIS IS BASED ON THE LATEST SATELLITE-DERIVED OCEAN SURFACE WIND
DATA.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED ADVISORY AT 200 PM
THIS AFTERNOON.

$$

M AYDLETT

[cycloneye]

Dolphin is taking off as eye feature is present.

[1900hurricane]

If I were a gambling man, I'd say Dolphin is in for some explosive intensification tonight. That is the prototypical pre-bombing look right now.

[cycloneye]

07W DOLPHIN 150513 0000 10.2N 156.2E WPAC 65 974

[SouthDadeFish]

It's about to explode. The microwave structure is textbook. Not looking good for those islands in the path :/

[cycloneye]

JMA at 60kts.



STS 1507 (DOLPHIN)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 13 May 2015
<Analyses at 13/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N9°55'(9.9°)
E156°50'(156.8°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL90km(50NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL280km(150NM)

<Forecast for 14/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N10°35'(10.6°)
E152°30'(152.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(65kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(95kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL240km(130NM)

<Forecast for 15/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N12°30'(12.5°)
E147°00'(147.0°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 965hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 35m/s(70kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50m/s(100kt)
Radius of probability circle 260km(140NM)
Storm warning area ALL390km(210NM)

<Forecast for 16/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°35'(14.6°)
E141°40'(141.7°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 25km/h(14kt)
Central pressure 955hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 390km(210NM)
Storm warning area ALL540km(290NM)

[cycloneye]

JTWC upgrades to Typhoon at 65kts. Cat 2 near Guam.



WDPN32 PGTW 130300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 07W (DOLPHIN) WARNING NR 26//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 07W (DOLPHIN), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 223 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF POHNPEI, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MSI CONTINUES TO SHOW GOOD
CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING TIGHTLY INTO A LLCC WITH A SMALL DIMPLE
FEATURE FORMING. A 122301Z GPM IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE
AND SOMEWHAT ELONGATED BANDING. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
THE ABOVE IMAGERY WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS
BEEN RAISED TO 65 KTS DUE TO THE INCREASE IN THE OVERALL STRUCTURE
OF THE SYSTEM AS WELL AS THE DVROAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW
AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO
HAVE GOOD SINGLE CHANNEL OUTFLOW WITH LOW VWS WITH TY DOLPHIN
TRACKING ON THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED STR.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, TY 07W WILL TRACK WEST-NORTHWEST AS
THE STEERING STR CONTINUES TO ELONGATE AND TRACK TO THE WEST. AS A
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH CREATES A BREAK IN THE STR, EXPECT TY DOLPHIN TO
TURN POLEWARD AND TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST. AT THIS TIME, THERE WILL
BE AN ACCELERATION IN INTENSIFICATION RATE AS THE SYSTEM GAINS
ACCESS TO DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. BY TAU 72, THE STR WILL BE FULLY
BUILT TO THE NORTHEAST OF TY 07W.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, TS DOLPHIN WILL CONTINUE TO
TRACK TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT BEGINS TO ROUND THE STR AXIS. THE
ENVIRONMENT WILL CONTINUE TO BE FAVORABLE, POSSIBLY ALLOWING FOR A
RAPID INTENSIFICATION SITUATION. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN
TIGHT AGREEMENT WITH LIMITED SPREAD, LEADING TO HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[xtyphooncyclonex]

The JMA and JTWC show a DIRECT hit over Guam, specifically over Hagåtña, not near Guam. That is why it is a major threat

[Yellow Evan]

Holy cow. Dolphin has crazy outflow channels.