EPAC: BLANCA - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 7
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
400 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

The cloud pattern of Blanca has become a little better organized
overnight with increased banding and very deep convection over the
center. However, there has been no recent microwave imagery to
assess the structure of the inner core. Although the Dvorak
T-numbers are a little higher, a recent ASCAT pass suggest that
the maximum winds are still 40 to 45 kt. Therefore, the initial
intensity remains 45 kt for this advisory.

The shear that has been affecting the cyclone during the past day
or so appears to have decreased with better anticyclonic outflow
noted over Blanca. The tropical storm appears to be poised to
intensify as a favorable environment characterized by low shear,
warm water, and a moist atmosphere is expected during the next few
days. The NHC forecast remains in good agreement with the SHIPS and
FSU Superensemble guidance, which both predict rapid strengthening
during the next day or two. Late in the forecast period, increasing
shear and cooler SSTs should result in weakening.

The ASCAT data suggest that Blanca has drifted westward overnight,
however, little overall motion is forecast during the next couple
of days while the cyclone remains in an area of weak steering flow.
After 48 hours, a mid-level ridge is forecast to strengthen and
shift eastward over northern Mexico. This should cause Blanca to
move northwestward at a faster forward speed beginning Thursday.
A northwestward to north-northwestward motion should continue on
days 3 through 5 while Blanca moves around the southwestern
periphery of the ridge. The model guidance is in good agreement on
this scenario, but has shifted slightly westward this cycle. The
updated NHC forecast has been nudged in that direction, and lies
a little east of the model consensus.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/0900Z 13.3N 104.6W 45 KT 50 MPH
12H 02/1800Z 13.3N 104.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
24H 03/0600Z 13.1N 104.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 03/1800Z 12.9N 104.9W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 04/0600Z 12.9N 104.9W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 05/0600Z 15.0N 106.5W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/0600Z 17.9N 108.6W 100 KT 115 MPH
120H 07/0600Z 21.0N 110.0W 75 KT 85 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brown

[SouthDadeFish]

Inner core is now there. Probably about to explode:

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Strong TS

02E BLANCA 150602 1200 13.1N 104.6W EPAC 55 999

[Yellow Evan]

Looks much better.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUN 2015 Time : 111500 UTC
Lat : 13:18:18 N Lon : 104:36:47 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.5 / 981.5mb/ 77.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.5 4.5 4.5

Center Temp : -78.1C Cloud Region Temp : -77.7C

[cycloneye]

Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 25m25 minutes ago
#Blanca has basically maxed out the SHIPS-RI index-- wow. This one could be pretty special.

[Yellow Evan]

6z GFS- Los Cabos

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* BLANCA EP022015 06/02/15 12 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 55 62 70 79 89 105 119 123 121 110 102 88 69
V (KT) LAND 55 62 70 79 89 105 119 123 121 110 102 88 69
V (KT) LGE mod 55 62 69 76 84 98 112 121 122 112 97 79 62
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 7 6 4 4 3 2 9 11 13 17 16 16 17
SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 -2 0 3 9 9 4 3 3 -2
SHEAR DIR 353 356 15 27 27 178 103 78 101 108 129 123 134
SST (C) 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.3 30.2 30.1 29.6 28.7 27.7 26.2 24.6
POT. INT. (KT) 164 164 163 163 163 163 165 165 161 151 140 125 109
200 MB T (C) -52.8 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.5 -51.4 -51.6 -50.8 -51.0 -50.7 -51.1 -50.8 -51.3
TH_E DEV (C) 4 5 6 6 6 7 7 8 7 7 6 6 4
700-500 MB RH 86 84 85 84 86 82 77 72 71 67 61 57 54
MODEL VTX (KT) 17 20 22 23 25 30 37 40 41 38 36 32 25
850 MB ENV VOR -2 9 16 19 34 61 62 91 86 80 61 71 61
200 MB DIV 99 102 116 108 130 142 100 114 98 42 2 -14 -20
700-850 TADV 0 0 0 0 0 -1 0 0 0 1 1 -3 -2
LAND (KM) 577 591 605 612 620 647 617 550 482 432 415 345 147
LAT (DEG N) 13.1 13.0 12.9 12.9 12.8 12.5 12.9 14.0 15.5 17.0 18.2 19.8 21.6
LONG(DEG W) 104.6 104.7 104.8 104.9 104.9 104.8 105.1 105.9 107.1 108.2 108.9 109.7 110.3
STM SPEED (KT) 2 1 1 1 1 0 5 8 9 8 8 9 9
HEAT CONTENT 99 98 97 97 96 97 92 78 37 12 4 2 0

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):250/ 2 CX,CY: -1/ 0
T-12 MAX WIND: 45 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 586 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 3.4 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 100.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 1. 2. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 17. 16. 14. 13.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 7. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 4.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. 3.
PERSISTENCE 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. 1. 0.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -10. -12. -14. -14. -15. -15.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5.
700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 6. 5.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 2. 5. 8. 17. 27. 32. 34. 29. 28. 22. 11.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 1. 0. -1. -3.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
GOES PREDICTORS 2. 4. 5. 6. 7. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 1. 1.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 1. 2. 4. 6. 9. 11. 10. 7. 7. 7. 5. 3.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 7. 15. 24. 34. 50. 64. 69. 66. 55. 47. 33. 14.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP022015 BLANCA 06/02/15 12 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 10.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 1.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 4.9 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 1.1
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 108.5 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.7
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 3.4 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 1.0
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 97.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.9
D200 (10**7s-1) : 111.0 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.8/ 0.6
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 100.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 0.5
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 78.0 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 15.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 95% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[cycloneye]

Baja California as destination but weaker.

[Ntxw]

Any chance we get recon with Blanca?

[Cyclenall]

Inner core is now there. Probably about to explode:

*Cut*

Just looking at the unenhanced IR and also the RBTOP one you can see that gyro spin in the center is accelerating and that the inner core is there and ready to blow.

Any chance we get recon with Blanca?

I was going to say have recon planned and get it into Blanca, let's go NOAA.

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 95% is 7.6 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 95% is 11.5 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 95% is 15.5 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 95% is 23.3 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

Inconceivable, I didn't think I'd see the whole SHIPS RI Index maxed out including for the 40 kt category, too bad it doesn't go to 99%+ and have a 50, 60 kt threshold because it would be more useful for this TC. Wouldn't surprise me to see a 40 or 45 knot jump in intensity in a 6 hour window. When the NHC says wow, you know its on .

A 913mb Hurricane would be insane for June, even for the Eastern Pacific.

Just 56-96 hours away from May too, picture a 910-920 mb hurricane in that month...does not compute .

[cycloneye]

...BLANCA STRENGTHENING...
...EXPECTED TO BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY...


SUMMARY OF 1000 AM CDT...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.1N 104.6W
ABOUT 375 MI...605 KM SSW OF ZIHUATANEJO MEXICO
ABOUT 410 MI...655 KM S OF MANZANILLO MEXICO
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH...110 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...995 MB...29.39 INCHES



TROPICAL STORM BLANCA DISCUSSION NUMBER 8
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022015
1000 AM CDT TUE JUN 02 2015

Blanca is intensifying. Geostationary imagery shows a CDO and
prominent banding features, and a 0828Z AMSR-2 image from GCOM-W1
showed a low- and mid-level eye feature. The latest Dvorak
estimates from TAFB and SAB are T3.5/55 kt, and the latest ADT is
T4.5/77 kt. The initial intensity is set to 60 kt for this
advisory. Given that Blanca has developed the inner-core features
seen in microwave imagery and the shear is now below 10 kt, the
cyclone appears to be poised for a period of rapid intensification.
The NHC forecast is near the highest guidance, showing Blanca
becoming a major hurricane tomorrow, and conditions appear favorable
for continued strengthening through 72 hours, when the SHIPS, LGEM
and FSU Superensemble all show a peak near 120 kt. However, even
this forecast could be conservative given that the SHIPS RI index
shows a 95 percent chance of a 40-kt increase in the first 24 hours.
The shear increases while the cyclone moves over cooler waters at
days 4 and 5, which should result in steady if not rapid weakening
by the end of the forecast period.

Blanca has been moving little over the past few hours, and little
motion is expected through 36 hours while steering currents remain
weak. By 48 hours, a slow northwestward motion should begin as a
ridge builds to the northeast of the cyclone, and a faster
northwestward to north-northwestward motion is forecast on days 4
and 5. The track model guidance is in general agreement on this
scenario, but there continues to be some cycle-to-cycle variability
late in the period. The multi-model consensus has shifted to the
right again this cycle at days 4 and 5, but only minor changes were
made to the NHC track, which now lies to the west of the consensus
aids.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 02/1500Z 13.1N 104.6W 60 KT 70 MPH
12H 03/0000Z 13.0N 104.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 03/1200Z 12.8N 104.7W 90 KT 105 MPH
36H 04/0000Z 12.8N 104.7W 100 KT 115 MPH
48H 04/1200Z 13.3N 105.1W 115 KT 130 MPH
72H 05/1200Z 16.0N 107.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
96H 06/1200Z 19.0N 108.7W 95 KT 110 MPH
120H 07/1200Z 22.0N 110.0W 65 KT 75 MPH

$$
Forecaster Brennan

[SouthDadeFish]

New microwave pass is in:





Looks really good, with some deep convection firing in the eastern eyewall.

[Yellow Evan]

WOW.

[cycloneye]

Any chance we get recon with Blanca?

It would be fantastic to have a plane out there but apparently they wont go.

II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.

[Yellow Evan]

I don't get why they wont send Recon. It's a land threat and could be huge record-wise when it comes to pressure.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Blanca's structure has really kicked off overnight. This is a rapidly strengthening storm, probably a hurricane by 5pm.

[cycloneye]

I asked Eric Blake on Twitter about the recon question that Ntxw posted and his answer was the following.

CycloforumsPR ‏@CycloforumsPR · 10m10 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 No recon for Blanca?


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 3m3 minutes ago
@CycloforumsPR depends on Blanca's track and intensity. Maybe could go in POD tomorrow?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

It's pretty clear that Blanca is an intensifying Category 1 hurricane, and I expect the 18z ATCF update will have anywhere from 65-75kt depending on SAB and TAFB. UW-CIMSS ADT is currently sitting at 75 knots.

Amid record warm sea surface temperatures, a favorable upper-level setup, and plenty of moisture (unlike with Andres), Blanca is poised to undergo explosive deepening at some point over the next 24 hours. I think the cyclone has good potential to become a Category 5 hurricane, and perhaps one stronger than 140 knots. If it does so before June 7, it would become the earliest storm of such intensity on record in the East Pacific.

[Yellow Evan]

I asked Eric Blake on Twitter about the recon question that Ntxw posted and his answer was the following.

CycloforumsPR ‏@CycloforumsPR · 10m10 minutes ago
@EricBlake12 No recon for Blanca?


Eric Blake ‏@EricBlake12 · 3m3 minutes ago
@CycloforumsPR depends on Blanca's track and intensity. Maybe could go in POD tomorrow?

Which would be if they went in the POD, for Friday?

[TropicalAnalystwx13]

Earliest 2nd hurricane on record:

EP, 02, 2015060218, , BEST, 0, 131N, 1046W, 65, 989, HU,