WPAC: CHAN-HOM - Post-Tropical

[Alyono]

been a big convective blowup just east of this. Should produce another round of very strong shear. I wouldn't be surprised if we have an exposed center again soon.

unless the center is farther to the west, closer to 147W

[euro6208]

Sub 900mb Cat 5 for close to 4 days!

Peaks at 874 mb southeast of Okinawa but then a secondary peak of 878 mb awfully close to Okinawa and recurves it east of Shanghai and the China coast.

Previous run had a 890mb's typhoon making landfall in Eastern China...

[euro6208]

Expecting a Category 2 for Guam!

WDPN31 PGTW 022100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING NR 10//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 294 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION THAT HAS BECOME MORE
COMPACT OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS BUT CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 021841Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LLCC WITH THE BULK OF CONVECTION
SHEARED TO THE WEST. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A MARGINAL
ENVIRONMENT WITH MODERATE TO HIGH EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
BEING PARTIALLY OFFSET BY GOOD DUAL CHANNEL DIVERGENT OUTFLOW. WARM
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN CONDUCIVE FOR STRENGTHENING. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE AND
SUPPORTED BY SATELLITE FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD AT 65 KNOTS BASED ON
CONCURRING DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T4.0 (65 KNOTS) AND A
RECENT SATCON INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF 67 KNOTS. TY 09W HAS SLOWED TO A
QUASI-STATIONARY MOTION AS THE SYSTEM TRANSITIONS TO A NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY TOWARDS A BREAK IN THE SUB-TROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTH.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY 09W WILL CONTINUE TO TURN TO THE NORTH-NORTHWEST TOWARDS A
BREAK IN THE STR OVER THE FIRST 12 HOURS. BEYOND TAU 12, TY CHAN-HOM
WILL TURN TOWARDS THE NORTHWEST AS THE STEERING STR BUILDS BACK IN
NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. THE SYSTEM WILL STEADILY INTENSIFY DUE TO WARM
SSTS AND GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, REACHING 100 KNOTS BY TAU 72; HOWEVER,
MODERATE VWS WILL PERSIST. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE CONFLICTS ON THE
TIMING OF THE NORTHWARD TURN, WHICH WILL CHANGE THE NORTHWESTWARD
TRAJECTORY TOWARDS THE MARIANA ISLANDS.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TY CHAN-HOM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND REMAINING
ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE. THIS WILL ALLOW TY 09W TO
REACH SUPER TYPHOON INTENSITY BY THE END OF FORECAST PERIOD. MODEL
GUIDANCE FOR THIS PORTION OF THE FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE IN
EXCELLENT AGREEMENT LENDING HIGH CONFIDENCE TO THE EXTENDED PORTION
OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST; HOWEVER DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN THE NEAR-
TERM, THERE IS AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
GUZ001>004-030200-

HYDROLOGIC OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
745 PM CHST THU JUL 2 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM WILL BRING SIGNIFICANT RAINFALL TO THE
MARIANAS THIS WEEKEND...

TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM WHICH MIGHT BECOME A TYPHOON AS IT PASSES
THROUGH THE MARIANAS SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...CAN PRODUCE HEAVY
RAINFALL OF 8 TO 12 INCHES ACROSS THE AREA. THIS RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL CAUSE LOCAL FLOODING IN URBAN AND LOW-LYING AREAS...AND FLASH
FLOODING NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS. IF CHAN-HOM SLOWS DOWN WHILE
MOVING THROUGH THE MARIANAS...HIGHER RAINFALL AMOUNTS AND LONGER
FLOODING ARE POSSIBLE.

CLEAR ANY CLOGGED STORM DRAINS IN YOUR AREA AND MONITOR WATER LEVELS
IF YOU LIVE NEAR RIVERS AND STREAMS. LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD
PLAN TO ALLOCATE RESOURCES. STAY ALERT ON THIS DEVELOPING SITUATION
AS FLASH FLOOD WATCHES/WARNINGS MIGHT BE ISSUED LATER WHEN NECESSARY.

$$

W. AYDLETT/CHAN

[euro6208]

THE MAIN CONCERN IS WHAT WILL CHAN-HOM DO AS THE TRACK FORECAST IS
STILL NOT SETTLED. CHAN-HOM ADVISORY NUMBER 7 FROM YESTERDAY
PREDICTED THE TRACK OF CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE ROTA CHANNEL. ADVISORY
NUMBER 8 DEPICTED THE TYPHOON CROSSING NORTHERN GUAM AND ADVISORY
NUMBER 9 HAD THE TYPHOON PASSING OVER GUAM. WILL THE TRACK
PROJECTION MOVE FURTHER SOUTH OR MOVE BACK NORTH. THE TYPHOON THIS
MORNING IS STILL MOVING WEST AND IS EXPECTED TO SLOW DOWN THEN
TURN NORTHWEST. IF THE TURN IS A BIT LATER THAN ORIGINALLY
THOUGHT THAN THE TYPHOON MAY PASS SOUTH OF GUAM. THE POINT OF THIS
IS TO ILLUSTRATE THE UNCERTAINTIES THAT REMAIN IN THE FORECAST.
BECAUSE OF THE UNCERTAINTIES DID NOT CHANGE THE FORECAST. STILL
EXPECT TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS TO BEGIN SATURDAY AFTERNOON AND
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY AFTERNOON. TYPHOON WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
SUNDAY MORNING. SINCE THE TRACK FORECAST UNCERTAINTIES ARE STILL
SIZABLE ALL OF THE MARIANAS ARE INCLUDED IN THE TYPHOON WATCH.
HOPEFULLY AS THE DAY PROGRESSES A MORE ACCURATE TRACK FORECAST
WILL PRESENT ITSELF. THE TYPHOON WILL ALSO BRING PERIODS OF HEAVY
RAIN TO THE LOCAL AREA.

AFTER CHAN-HOM PASSAGE THE MARIANAS WILL BE IN SOUTHWEST WINDS
AS THE STORM WILL DRAG THE MONSOON TROUGH NORTH OF THE LOCAL AREA.

[euro6208]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 8.2.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 02 JUL 2015 Time : 200000 UTC
Lat : 10:10:27 N Lon : 148:09:47 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.6 / 978.2mb/ 79.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.6 4.6 3.9

Center Temp : -76.7C Cloud Region Temp : -74.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : PACIFIC

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : MW HOLD
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 82km
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : MTSAT2
Satellite Viewing Angle : 12.5 degrees

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ31 PGUM 022107
TCPPQ1

BULLETIN
TYPHOON CHAN-HOM (09W) ADVISORY NUMBER 10
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU WP092015
700 AM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON CHAN-HOM SLOWS DOWN SOUTHEAST OF GUAM...

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY
--------------------------
NONE

WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
A TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GUAM...ROTA...TINIAN AND
SAIPAN AND ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS. TYPHOON CONDITIONS...INCLUDING
WINDS OF 74 MPH OR MORE...ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN 48 HOURS.

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...10.2N 148.1E

ABOUT 320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM
ABOUT 335 MILES SOUTHEAST OF ROTA AND
ABOUT 375 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SAIPAN AND
ABOUT 370 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF TINIAN

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST...270 DEGREES AT 3 MPH

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK
----------------------
AT 700 AM CHST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF TYPHOON CHAN-HOM WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.2 DEGREES NORTH AND LONGITUDE 148.1 DEGREES
EAST. CHAN-HOM IS MOVING WEST AT 3 MPH. CHAN-HOM IS EXPECTED TO
SLOWLY TURN NORTHWESTWARD THROUGH THE DAY WITH A SLIGHT INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK WOULD BRING CHAN-HOM THROUGH THE MARIANAS
EARLY SUNDAY MORNING.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WIND REMAINS NEAR 75 MPH. TROPICAL STORM WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 110 MILES FROM THE CENTER. TYPHOON CHAN-HOM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
AN INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE AT 1100 AM THIS MORNING FOLLOWED BY THE NEXT SCHEDULED
ADVISORY AT 200 PM.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[Alyono]

its now clear I was looking at the wrong place for the center

[Alyono]

that said, this is in trouble. The inflow seems split between Chan-Hom and the convection to the east. I doubt this is a typhoon now

[Alyono]

this looks like a remnant low on microwave

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

[Yellow Evan]

this looks like a remnant low on microwave

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

This is not a remnant low.

However, I agree it's looking terrible. God, why does every storm have to have some twists and turns and be so complex? I feel like that's been the case as of late.

[Alyono]

this looks like a remnant low on microwave

http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_ho ... egreeticks

This is not a remnant low.

However, I agree it's looking terrible. God, why does every storm have to have some twists and turns and be so complex? I feel like that's been the case as of late.

too much convection in the area. Not focused about the center. This leads me to strongly question the model forecasts (and perhaps Linfa may become more intense due to less interaction with this one)

this would not qualify for an upgrade to a TD based upon its current microwave appearance. It is AWFUL

[cycloneye]

JMA downgrades to Severe Tropical Storm.

STS 1509 (CHAN-HOM)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 3 July 2015
<Analyses at 03/00 UTC>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N10°25'(10.4°)
E148°20'(148.3°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slowly
Central pressure 980hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(55kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 40m/s(80kt)
Area of 50kt winds or more ALL70km(40NM)
Area of 30kt winds or more ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 04/00 UTC>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N12°20'(12.3°)
E147°35'(147.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 10km/h(6kt)
Central pressure 975hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 30m/s(60kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 45m/s(85kt)
Radius of probability circle 130km(70NM)
Storm warning area ALL220km(120NM)

<Forecast for 05/00 UTC>
Intensity Strong
Center position of probability circle N14°50'(14.8°)
E145°00'(145.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 15km/h(9kt)
Central pressure 960hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 40m/s(75kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 55m/s(105kt)
Radius of probability circle 200km(110NM)
Storm warning area ALL330km(180NM)

<Forecast for 06/00 UTC>
Intensity Very Strong
Center position of probability circle N17°30'(17.5°)
E141°40'(141.7°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20km/h(10kt)
Central pressure 950hPa
Maximum wind speed near the center 45m/s(85kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60m/s(120kt)
Radius of probability circle 300km(160NM)
Storm warning area ALL440km(240NM)

[Alyono]

looking at a wider satellite loop, the disturbance east of Chan-Hom looks more intense. Will that one be the intense system? More inflow appears to be going into that developing circulation and little into Chan-Hom. Perhaps Chan-Hom will die at the expense of another system? Wouldn't have thought that

[Alyono]

I think the JT synoptic reasoning is wrong. The shear is due to the system immediately to the east, not so much due to the TUTT

[cycloneye]

WDPN31 PGTW 030300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 09W (CHAN-HOM) WARNING
NR 11//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 09W (CHAN-HOM), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 282 NM
SOUTHEAST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE
RECENT ASSOCIATED CONVECTION WEAKENING AND SHEARING TO THE WEST.
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A TUTT CELL THAT WAS LOCATED FAR NORTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM BEGAN TO TRACK SOUTHWEST OVER THE PAST 3 TO 4 HOURS,
POSITIONING ITSELF JUST UPSTREAM OF TS 09W. THIS HAS INCREASED THE
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND CREATED CONVERGENCE ALOFT. THESE
IMPACTS ARE SUPPRESSING AND WEAKENING THE CONVECTION. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE MSI LOOP WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE LACK OF A
CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE; HOWEVER, DUE TO THE CURRENT STATE OF THE
SYSTEM, THE INTENSITY COULD BE LOWER. TS CHAN-HOM IS DRIFTING SLOWLY
WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE CURRENT INTENSITY AND FORECASTED INTENSITY THROUGH TAU 24
HAS BEEN LOWERED DUE TO THE UNFORESEEN POSITIONING AND RELATED
IMPACTS OF THE TUTT CELL JUST NORTHEAST OF THE CIRCULATION. THE TUTT
CELL IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN IN PLACE OVER THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS
BEFORE IT GETS ABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE PATTERN.
B. TS 09W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT SLOWLY WESTWARD TO WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 12 HOURS DUE TO THE TUTT CELL
POSITIONING NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. TS CHAN-HOM WILL TURN TO THE
PREVIOUSLY FORECASTED NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY AS THE TUTT CELL
RETROGRADES TO THE EAST AND GETS REABSORBED INTO THE LONGWAVE
PATTERN. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS
DUE TO THE IMPACTS OF THE TUTT CELL. BEYOND TAU 24, TS 09W WILL
BEGIN TO REINTENSIFY DUE TO FAVORABLE DIVERGENT OUTFLOW AND
DECREASED VWS AS IT ACCELERATES NORTHWESTWARD.
C. IN THE EXTENDED TAUS, TS CHAN-HOM WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK
NORTHWESTWARD AND FURTHER INTENSIFY AS VWS DECREASES AND THE
REMAINING ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS STAY FAVORABLE. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE REMAINS UNCHANGED; HOWEVER, THEY TEND TO STRUGGLE WITH TUTT
CELL INTERACTION. DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED MODEL ISSUES AND THE
COMPLEXITY OF THE STEERING ENVIRONMENT, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

000
WTPQ81 PGUM 030450
HLSPQ1

URGENT - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) LOCAL STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TIYAN GU
250 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...CHAN-HOM WEAKENS TO TROPICAL STORM...

.NEW INFORMATION...
NONE.

.AREAS AFFECTED...
THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND
RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT
LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER OF GUAM AND THE NORTHERN MARIANAS AND
SURROUNDING WATERS.

.WATCHES/WARNINGS...
A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...GUAM...
ROTA...TINIAN AND SAIPAN.

FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TYPHOON WATCH CONTINUES FOR ALL OF
MARIANAS WATERS.

.STORM INFORMATION...
AT 2 PM CHST...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM (09W) WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 10.3N...LONGITUDE 148.0E. THIS WAS ABOUT
320 MILES SOUTHEAST OF GUAM. STORM MOTION WAS QUASI-STATIONARY.

.SITUATION OVERVIEW...
TROPICAL STORM CHAN-HOM IS FORECAST TO BEGIN TO MOVE AGAIN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST LATER TONIGHT. CHAN-HOM HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY
SINCE LAST NIGHT AS IT MOVED INTO A STRONG UPPER-LEVEL VERTICAL
SHEAR. HOWEVER...THIS SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO ABATE LATER TONIGHT AND
SLOWLY BEGIN TO INTENSIFY AGAIN ON SATURDAY. CHAN-HOM COULD
BECOME TYPHOON AS IT PASSES THROUGH THE MARIANAS SUNDAY MORNING.

.PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...
PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

PREPARE TO PUT YOUR DISASTER PREPAREDNESS PLAN INTO ACTION. MAKE
SURE YOU HAVE ENOUGH FOOD AND WATER FOR A FEW DAYS...AS WELL AS
FUEL FOR VEHICLES AND GENERATORS. BEGIN PREPARING YOUR PROPERTY
FOR TYPHOON CONDITIONS..POSSIBLE AS EARLY AS SATURDAY NIGHT.
FOLLOW INSTRUCTIONS FROM YOUR LOCAL EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS.
THE CURRENT FORECAST BRINGS THE CENTER OF CHAN-HOM NEAR GUAM AND
ROTA EARLY SUNDAY MORNING...BUT SOME UNCERTAINTY REMAINS IN THE
TIMING AND THE FORECAST TRACK. TYPHOON CONDITIONS COULD OCCUR ON
ANY OF THE ISLANDS. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE WARNINGS AND BE READY TO
EVACUATE IF NECESSARY. HEED THE ADVICE OF LOCAL OFFICIALS AND
COMPLY WITH ANY ORDERS THAT ARE ISSUED.

FOR MARINERS...BEGIN TO SAFELY SECURE YOUR CRAFT AND MAKE PLANS
TO LEAVE IT FOR ADEQUATE LAND BASED SHELTER. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE
WARNINGS. SMALL CRAFT SHOULD RETURN TO PORT.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. BECAUSE SMALL ADJUSTMENTS IN
FORECAST TRACK ARE EXPECTED...LISTEN FOR UPDATED FORECAST
INFORMATION.

CLOSELY MONITOR NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER LOCAL NEWS OUTLETS
FOR OFFICIAL STORM INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR POSSIBLE CHANGES TO
THE FORECAST.

&&

.NEXT UPDATE...
THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE IN TIYAN AROUND 9 PM CHST...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS
WARRANT.

GUZ001>004-PMZ151>154-031200-
/O.CON.PGUM.TY.A.0003.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
GUAM-ROTA-TINIAN-SAIPAN-GUAM COASTAL WATERS-ROTA COASTAL WATERS-
TINIAN COASTAL WATERS-SAIPAN COASTAL WATERS-
250 PM CHST FRI JUL 3 2015

...TYPHOON WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT...

...WINDS AND SEAS...
AS CURRENTLY FORECAST...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE POSSIBLE
BY SATURDAY EVENING...WITH TYPHOON FORCE WINDS POSSIBLE EARLY
SUNDAY MORNING. WINDS WILL BEGIN TO SUBSIDE LATE SUNDAY MORNING
FOR GUAM.

SEAS OF 9 TO 13 FEET TODAY WILL BUILD THROUGH TONIGHT AS CHAN-HOM
NEARS AND COULD REACH UP TO 20 FEET LATE SATURDAY NIGHT AND
SUNDAY MORNING NEAR THE CENTER.

...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE...
HAZARDOUS SURF OF 10 TO 15 FEET FRIDAY WILL BUILD TO DANGEROUS
LEVELS OF 17 TO 22 FEET SATURDAY EVENING. DANGEROUS SURF WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH SUNDAY NIGHT BEFORE SUBSIDING BY MONDAY MORNING.

COASTAL INUNDATION OF 1 TO 3 FEET IS EXPECTED ALONG EAST FACING
SHORES AS CHAN-HOM APPROACHES. HIGHER COASTAL INUNDATION IS
POSSIBLE DEPENDING ON THE EXACT TRACK AND STRENGTH OF CHAN-HOM.

...FLASH FLOODING...
RAINFALL TOTALS OF 6 TO 10 INCHES ARE POSSIBLE THROUGH MONDAY
MORNING WHICH CAN CAUSE FLASH FLOODING.

$$

KLEESCHULTE

[xtyphooncyclonex]

Like crap now, but I think given the agreement of the models, this be'd a powerful monster by late Sunday. Maybe sustaining super typhoon intensity for a long period of time and being among the strongest to lash Okinawa island and Southern Japan or Central China on record. It's quite strange that the models (GFS/ECMWF) switched scenarios. Track really depends on the timing of the trough or turn to the northeast (if ever).

ECMWF






GFS

[Alyono]

the problem is, the mdoels initialized this now as a bonadife TC, when it is not