EPAC: HILDA- Post-Tropical

[Yellow Evan]

CMG ring now....

Cat 3, I have to say it.

Shame that ADT can't handle it.

Def headed in that direction. I'd say 95 knts now.

[Kingarabian]

CMG ring now....

Cat 3, I have to say it.

Shame that ADT can't handle it.

Def headed in that direction. I'd say 95 knts now.

100kts. I see no reason why not.

[1900hurricane]

Huge difference in IR sat presentation in just one hour.


23Z


00Z

[Yellow Evan]

Actual SAB bulletin:

TXPZ26 KNES 080025
TCSENP

A. 10E (HILDA)

B. 08/0000Z

C. 12.9N

D. 139.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...MG EYE IS EMBEDDED IN W AND SURROUNDED BY CMG RESULTING
IN A DT OF 6.0 WITH NO EYE ADJUSTMENT. THE AVERAGE SUBJECTIVE DT
CALCULATED HOURLY FOR THE 6 HOUR PERIOD ENDING AT 00Z WAS 5.3. FT OF 5.5
IS BASED ON THIS AVERAGE AND RECOGNIZES THAT THE DVORAK TECHNIQUE MAY
BE UNDERESTIMATING THE ACTUAL INTENSITY OF THE SYSTEM DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE EYE. 6 HR AVERAGE JUSTIFIES BREAKING THE DVORAK CONSTRAINT
LIMITING CHANGES IN FT TO 1.0 OVER 6 HOURS.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...TURK

[1900hurricane]

I'm curious as to how much colder the CDO and warmer the eye will be next frame. This is where something like Himawari-8 or GOES-R would come in handy, both due to increased image resolution and more frequent images.

[Kingarabian]

As they're saying on WeatherUnderground, the CDO in the last frame almost resembles an annular hurricane.

[Kingarabian]

21z ASMR2 pass:

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 201508080000, 10, DVTS, CI, , 1290N, 13900W, , 1, 90, 2, 970, 2, DVRK, , , , , , , , , , , , , , E, TAFB, DM, VI, 1, 5050 /////, , , GOES15, CSC, T, FT BASED ON CONSTRAINTS OF 1.0 T-NUMBER CHANGE IN 6

TAFB does not break constraints

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 000000 UTC
Lat : 12:47:24 N Lon : 138:53:09 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 5.6

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -47.6C Cloud Region Temp : -68.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Kingarabian]

Intermediate advisory is only 90kts. I think if it clears out more they'll have no choice but to go against Dvorak estimates.

[Yellow Evan]

EP, 10, 2015080800, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1390W, 90, 975, HU, 34, NEQ, 60, 60, 40, 60, 1008, 140, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 10, 2015080800, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1390W, 90, 975, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 1008, 140, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,
EP, 10, 2015080800, , BEST, 0, 129N, 1390W, 90, 975, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 15, 10, 10, 1008, 140, 10, 0, 0, E, 0, , 0, 0, HILDA, D, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 014,

[Yellow Evan]

* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST *
* IR SAT DATA AVAILABLE, OHC AVAILABLE *
* HILDA EP102015 08/08/15 00 UTC *

TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
V (KT) NO LAND 90 100 105 109 109 106 97 85 71 60 49 37 28
V (KT) LAND 90 100 105 109 109 106 97 85 71 60 49 37 28
V (KT) LGE mod 90 104 113 116 116 110 100 88 75 62 50 39 30
Storm Type TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP TROP

SHEAR (KT) 9 9 7 4 3 1 9 19 24 35 35 39 40
SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 3 5 4 -4 -4 0 4 0 4 2 1
SHEAR DIR 80 78 95 77 57 304 224 238 233 243 247 258 265
SST (C) 28.5 28.5 28.4 28.2 28.0 27.7 27.4 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.0 27.1
POT. INT. (KT) 150 150 149 147 144 141 137 135 133 132 132 132 133
200 MB T (C) -51.3 -51.3 -51.5 -51.5 -51.1 -51.6 -51.3 -52.0 -52.1 -53.1 -53.3 -53.8 -54.1
TH_E DEV (C) 8 8 8 7 7 7 7 6 6 6 6 7 7
700-500 MB RH 61 61 62 58 59 58 58 59 61 60 59 55 50
MODEL VTX (KT) 15 16 17 18 17 18 17 17 15 14 13 10 9
850 MB ENV VOR 22 23 16 18 20 25 19 20 19 21 21 5 3
200 MB DIV 6 22 14 15 29 14 29 57 70 48 40 -8 1
700-850 TADV -1 -2 -1 -1 -1 0 5 11 11 9 6 3 1
LAND (KM) 1838 1726 1614 1490 1367 1159 970 782 626 513 471 399 312
LAT (DEG N) 12.9 13.2 13.5 13.9 14.2 14.9 15.8 16.7 17.6 18.6 19.7 20.4 20.9
LONG(DEG W) 139.0 140.0 141.0 142.1 143.2 145.0 146.5 148.0 149.2 150.0 150.3 151.1 152.2
STM SPEED (KT) 11 10 11 11 10 9 8 8 7 6 5 6 5
HEAT CONTENT 15 10 9 13 20 17 23 33 25 22 14 12 11

FORECAST TRACK FROM OFCI INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 13 CX,CY: -12/ 2
T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=581)
GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 11.6 (MEAN=14.5)
% GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 80.0 (MEAN=65.0)

INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE
6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120
----------------------------------------------------------
SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2.
SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 0. -3. -8. -12. -17. -21. -24. -27. -28.
VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -1. 0. 0. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -5. -10. -14.
VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1.
VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 3. 2. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2.
PERSISTENCE 10. 15. 16. 16. 12. 8. 5. 3. 2. 2. 0. -1.
200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. -8.
THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4.
700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1.
MODEL VTX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 0. -1. -3. -6. -8.
850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1.
850-700 T ADVEC 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. 0. 0. 1. 2.
ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3.
STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1.
DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1.
GOES PREDICTORS 0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2.
OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0.
----------------------------------------------------------
TOTAL CHANGE 10. 15. 19. 19. 16. 7. -5. -19. -30. -41. -52. -62.

** 2013 E. Pacific RI INDEX EP102015 HILDA 08/08/15 00 UTC **
( 30 KT OR MORE MAX WIND INCREASE IN NEXT 24 HR)

12 HR PERSISTENCE (KT): 40.0 Range:-22.0 to 38.5 Scaled/Wgted Val: 1.0/ 2.2
850-200 MB SHEAR (KT) : 6.4 Range: 18.7 to 1.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 1.0
POT = MPI-VMAX (KT) : 58.0 Range: 40.3 to 141.7 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.2
STD DEV OF IR BR TEMP : 11.6 Range: 38.9 to 2.4 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.7/ 0.8
Heat content (KJ/cm2) : 13.4 Range: 3.6 to 75.9 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.1/ 0.1
D200 (10**7s-1) : 17.2 Range:-11.0 to 135.3 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.2/ 0.1
% area w/pixels <-30 C: 72.0 Range: 41.4 to 100.0 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.5/ 0.3
850-700 MB REL HUM (%): 72.8 Range: 57.6 to 96.8 Scaled/Wgted Val: 0.4/ -0.1

Prob of RI for 25 kt RI threshold= 37% is 2.8 times the sample mean(13.1%)
Prob of RI for 30 kt RI threshold= 33% is 3.8 times the sample mean( 8.7%)
Prob of RI for 35 kt RI threshold= 31% is 5.1 times the sample mean( 6.0%)
Prob of RI for 40 kt RI threshold= 26% is 6.2 times the sample mean( 4.3%)

[Kingarabian]

[Yellow Evan]

New frame. Eye has cooled.

[Yellow Evan]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 003000 UTC
Lat : 12:48:18 N Lon : 138:58:33 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 5.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km

Center Temp : -43.7C Cloud Region Temp : -70.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

Ugh. Center fix off just when it matters most.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 08 AUG 2015 Time : 010000 UTC
Lat : 12:52:47 N Lon : 139:15:54 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
4.4 / 981.5mb/ 74.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
4.4 4.4 4.1

Center Temp : -61.6C Cloud Region Temp : -73.3C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION w/ MW EYE

Positioning Method : SPIRAL ANALYSIS

[Yellow Evan]

Adv taking a while. Will it be 90, 95, or 100? The suspense...

[Kingarabian]

Adv taking a while. Will it be 90, 95, or 100? The suspense...

It's not 30 minutes early. I wonder if they're all sitting around the discussion table thinking what to assign it.

[Yellow Evan]

Adv taking a while. Will it be 90, 95, or 100? The suspense...

It's not 30 minutes early. I wonder if they're all sitting around the discussion table thinking what to assign it.

Well if their looking at new frames, the eye has been warming and becoming more defined. Longer the wait, the higher it is probs.

[Yellow Evan]

000
WTPZ25 KNHC 080256
TCMEP5

HURRICANE HILDA FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102015
0300 UTC SAT AUG 08 2015

THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.6W AT 08/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 15 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 280 DEGREES AT 13 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 975 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 90 KT WITH GUSTS TO 110 KT.
64 KT....... 15NE 15SE 10SW 10NW.
50 KT....... 30NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT....... 60NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
12 FT SEAS..100NE 70SE 50SW 90NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 13.0N 139.6W AT 08/0300Z
AT 08/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 12.9N 139.0W

FORECAST VALID 08/1200Z 13.4N 141.4W
MAX WIND 100 KT...GUSTS 120 KT.
64 KT... 20NE 15SE 10SW 15NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 80NE 80SE 60SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/0000Z 14.1N 143.5W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 09/1200Z 14.9N 145.4W
MAX WIND 110 KT...GUSTS 135 KT.
64 KT... 25NE 20SE 15SW 20NW.
50 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT... 90NE 90SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 10/0000Z 15.8N 147.2W
MAX WIND 95 KT...GUSTS 115 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 80NW.

FORECAST VALID 11/0000Z 17.8N 149.5W
MAX WIND 75 KT...GUSTS 90 KT.
50 KT... 50NE 40SE 30SW 40NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE 70SW 90NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 150 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 12/0000Z 19.5N 151.0W
MAX WIND 50 KT...GUSTS 60 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 13/0000Z 20.6N 153.0W
MAX WIND 35 KT...GUSTS 45 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 13.0N 139.6W

THIS IS THE LAST FORECAST/ADVISORY ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL HURRICANE
CENTER ON HILDA. FUTURE ADVISORIES WILL BE ISSUED BY THE CENTRAL
PACIFIC HURRICANE CENTER IN HONOLULU HAWAII...UNDER AWIPS HEADER
HFOTCMCP5...WMO HEADER WTPA25 PHFO...AND ON THE WEB AT
HTTP://WWW.PRH.NOAA.GOV/CPHC...BEGINNING AT 08/0900Z.

$$
FORECASTER PASCH