ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[TheAustinMan]

I expect a turn to the north shown on the next advisory unless I'm missing something...

The cone is WIDE at the end of this one.

Keep in mind that the size of the cone is simply based on the average track errors of the NHC over the past few years (how far they've been off). It has nothing to do with how confident they are and does not change on an advisory-to-advisory basis. The cone has remained the same size since the beginning of the season.

[AutoPenalti]

When are the next couple runs?

[tolakram]

I could spend all day at this site: http://coast.noaa.gov/hurricanes/

I selected the current location of Erika (best guess) to see historic tracks. Only one, Donna (1960) hit Florida. This is meaningless, the past is NO indication of future tracks, especially with a limited amount of data, but I thought it was interesting none the less. The NC hit is Bertha (1996).

[Bocadude85]

And they have shifted the track to the east a little.

Id say that's more then a little..Also no longer a hurricane near South Florida.

Still pretty close to the SE Florida coast though. Any wobble to the left on that angle of approach would bring the center pretty darn close to the coastline.

[NDG]

Per the 11 PM advisory, the X is where they estimated the COC to be. It has not gained much latitude this evening.

[tgenius]

Granted the models can and likely will shift I see a trend with south fl being moved away from the cone. I would think by 5am would be even farther unless euro pulls back west. Regardless it will bring some squally weather down here.

[northjaxpro]

When are the next couple runs?

EURO is due out around 1:45 a.m. Eastern Daylight Time.

[Aric Dunn]

Per the 11 PM advisory, the X is where they estimated the COC to be. It has not gained much latitude this evening.

And lets add radar in on this get some perspective on how close that deep convection really is.. which is not all that close.. ...

[Evil Jeremy]

Anyone know when we are getting Gulfstream-IV upper air data for the models (if we haven't already)?

[Aric Dunn]

Granted the models can and likely will shift I see a trend with south fl being moved away from the cone. I would think by 5am would be even farther unless euro pulls back west. Regardless it will bring some squally weather down here.

Remember the weaker this stays ( or shallow ) and can survive the more likely we will see a track slightly more west. right now its a 50/50 shot this stays weak enough to make it to florida before the turn.

[NDG]

One last note before I go to be from the NHC's discussion tonight

One should remember to not focus on the exact forecast track,
especially at the long range where the average NHC track errors
during the past 5 years are about 180 miles at day 4 and 240
miles at day 5.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MI ... HHMM.shtml

[toad strangler]

There will need to be a HOP in the track to get north of PR …

[AutoPenalti]

Granted the models can and likely will shift I see a trend with south fl being moved away from the cone. I would think by 5am would be even farther unless euro pulls back west. Regardless it will bring some squally weather down here.

I don't see that trend. Here are 2 reasons.

1) It has yet to gain any intensity
2) It's still moving to the west (according to the NHC) with no change in track

[Hammy]

It's further north than I thought based on radar, which means the chances of it running into the islands are dwindling.

[MGC]

I would not let your guard down in Florida. Almost the entire Florida Peninsula is still in the cone. Track could start shifting back west. Hopefully Erika don't hit any land.....MGC

[mitchell]

I expect a turn to the north shown on the next advisory unless I'm missing something...

The cone is WIDE at the end of this one.

Keep in mind that the size of the cone is simply based on the average track errors of the NHC over the past few years (how far they've been off). It has nothing to do with how confident they are and does not change on an advisory-to-advisory basis. The cone has remained the same size since the beginning of the season.

This is so easy to forget! The width of the cone has absolutely nothing to do with the storm at hand. The models could be in agreement, or in disagreement, but the cone would be the same width.

[psyclone]

12 hours ago the end point was near lake O and now it's a good bit east of cape Canaveral. that's a big swing...the NHC doesn't typically make big changes at once...they happen over several forecast cycles and I wouldn't be surprised if the 5 am track continues the trend..we'll see but once again I don't get worked up over 3-5 day outlooks for this very reason..too much changes.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[tolakram]

For whoever was asking, the GFS 0Z run starts at 11:30PM EDT.

[AutoPenalti]

For whoever was asking, the GFS 0Z run starts at 11:30PM EDT.

Thanks!

[bahamaswx]

This burst of convection is getting to be pretty dang big.