ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[NDG]

It's further north than I thought based on radar, which means the chances of it running into the islands are dwindling.

Which Islands are you talking about because it will be tracking across the Leeward Islands tonight.

[SouthFLTropics]

There will need to be a HOP in the track to get north of PR …

If she doesn't pull up soon I see no way she doesn't get tangled up in at least PR, and possibly Hispaniola

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 05, 2015082700, , BEST, 0, 166N, 595W, 40, 1006, TS,

[Lifeless]

This burst of convection is getting to be pretty dang big.

No kidding, loads of convection from an area near its typically quite dry. Mind you Danny did the same thing just a few days ago here.

[deltadog03]

Granted the models can and likely will shift I see a trend with south fl being moved away from the cone. I would think by 5am would be even farther unless euro pulls back west. Regardless it will bring some squally weather down here.

Remember the weaker this stays ( or shallow ) and can survive the more likely we will see a track slightly more west. right now its a 50/50 shot this stays weak enough to make it to florida before the turn.

Bingo!! Why I think the HWRF and GFDL are bogus right now

[Hammy]

It's further north than I thought based on radar, which means the chances of it running into the islands are dwindling.

Which Islands are you talking about because it will be tracking across the Leeward Islands tonight.

Oh, I meant the mountains (Dominican Republic)

[NDG]

Hot off the press.

[NDG]

Granted the models can and likely will shift I see a trend with south fl being moved away from the cone. I would think by 5am would be even farther unless euro pulls back west. Regardless it will bring some squally weather down here.

Remember the weaker this stays ( or shallow ) and can survive the more likely we will see a track slightly more west. right now its a 50/50 shot this stays weak enough to make it to florida before the turn.

Bingo!! Why I think the HWRF and GFDL are bogus right now

The HWRF and GFDL for the most part have been right biased with Erika, more so the GFDL way far right.

[TheStormExpert]

Granted the models can and likely will shift I see a trend with south fl being moved away from the cone. I would think by 5am would be even farther unless euro pulls back west. Regardless it will bring some squally weather down here.

Remember the weaker this stays ( or shallow ) and can survive the more likely we will see a track slightly more west. right now its a 50/50 shot this stays weak enough to make it to florida before the turn.

Bingo!! Why I think the HWRF and GFDL are bogus right now

The NHC keeps this a 35-45kt TS up until the Central Bahamas and still show it missing Florida to the east.

[Hammy]

ASCAT shows Erika is in much better shape than Danny was at the time, circulation is larger and while not able to close easily due to the speed, still has plenty of inflow from WSW/SW over quite a large area.

[TheStormExpert]

GFDL has ALWAYS had a tendency to be right biased. That's why in the model track guidance those two hurricane models always stick out.

[Aric Dunn]

Remember the weaker this stays ( or shallow ) and can survive the more likely we will see a track slightly more west. right now its a 50/50 shot this stays weak enough to make it to florida before the turn.

Bingo!! Why I think the HWRF and GFDL are bogus right now

The NHC keeps this a 35-45kt TS up until the Central Bahamas and still show it missing Florida to the east.

remember this is all based on a vertically stacked well organized TS if it never becomes somewhat vertically stacked the low level flow will keep it more w to wnw. then as it deepens that turn would happen.

[NDG]

ASCAT shows Erika is in much better shape than Danny was at the time, circulation is larger and while not able to close easily due to the speed, still has plenty of inflow from WSW/SW over quite a large area.

I was about to post that, in fact the circulation is almost twice as big as Danny was when it was in this area.

[Hurricaneman]

Why does everyone assume this will become a hurricane, it hasn't even cleared Peurto Rico and Hispaniola yet and with its current path which is south of the NHC path it might just hit the big islands an become not much more than it is now which IMO is still an option

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[northjaxpro]

ASCAT shows Erika is in much better shape than Danny was at the time, circulation is larger and while not able to close easily due to the speed, still has plenty of inflow from WSW/SW over quite a large area.

I was about to post that, in fact the circulation is almost twice as big as Danny was when it was in this area.

It is because of this, the larger circulation and moisture inflow that will imo help to keep Erika sustainable through a trek through or near the Greater Antilles the next 48 hours. Erika will not really align vertically until approaching 70 longitude imo.

[NDG]

Why does everyone assume this will become a hurricane, it hasn't even cleared Peurto Rico and Hispaniola yet and with its current path which is south of the NHC path it might just hit the big islands an become not much more than it is now which IMO is still an option

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

That is a good possibility but right now it has no model support to track across Hispaniola which would do the most weakening to Erika.
PR will not do much to it if it tracks across the Island because this is a large system with a vigorous ML which tend to survive better than smaller systems.

[northjaxpro]

Why does everyone assume this will become a hurricane, it hasn't even cleared Peurto Rico and Hispaniola yet and with its current path which is south of the NHC path it might just hit the big islands an become not much more than it is now which IMO is still an option

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Yeah, Hispaniola definitely , as always a huge obstacle for tropical cyclones. It will be close as to the proximity the cyclone will be to that island within the next 48 hours.

[SouthFLTropics]

There is a possibility that the islands will assist with the consolidation of the system...we've seen that before on a storm that isn't well stacked.

[Hurricaneman]

One thing I did notice is that this is becoming better alligned with its MLC and LLC but still has a little work to do to get there

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 270244
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
1100 PM AST WED AUG 26 2015

...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO BEGIN OVER PORTIONS OF
THE LEEWARD ISLANDS EARLY THURSDAY...


SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.7N 60.2W
ABOUT 110 MI...175 KM ESE OF ANTIGUA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

None.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* Antigua and Barbuda
* St. Kitts and Nevisis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* North coast of the Dominican Republic from Cabo Engano to Cabo
Frances Viejo
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.



NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST.
Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST.

$$
Forecaster Avila