ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[ScottNAtlanta]

I wouldn't buy into the recurve just yet. Next 2 days will be key in answering that question.

[Bocadude85]

Yes I agree, we need another cycle or two of an east shift and will start feeling much better. Still let's not forget the consensus of the GFS and ECMWF is still into SE Florida or very close to Palm Beach County area. By no means are we "in the clear" here at all.

Not looking good either way for folks in the Bahamas.

I wonder how much of a shift the NHC makes to the track at 5pm. The GFS and Euro are within 50 miles of each other at the 120 hour mark. Perhaps a slight shift north and right along the coast of Palm Beach is what I am thinking.

[SouthFLTropics]

We've seen this countless times before...the model windshield wiper effect. Don't be surprised to see swings east and west until it locks in on a solution. Middle of the road of those swings still leaves FL in the crosshairs. We're definitely not out of the woods yet.

[Bocadude85]

2005 and 2009

Has there ever been a situation where the models have had a huge change and then changed back?

OMG, so many examples... They will continue flopping, they always do when you are looking at >100 hours out...

The GFS and Euro both smack Andros Island. I do not recall to many storms hitting Andros Island and missing Florida to the east. I'm sure it has happened but I can not think of any storms off the top of my head.

[Kohlecane]

This should be very interesting for me up in JAX well for the GFS run that is it strengthens it up the coast to us ...

[Zarniwoop]

NOTICED THIS WHEN LOOKING AT ERIKA ... KINDA OFF TOPIC AND ITS THE GFS IN LA LA LAND BUT CHECK OUT WHAT SHOWES UP OF THE COAST OF GA/SC AT 384HR
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Blank page in my browser (firefox).

[Alyono]

Has there ever been a situation where the models have had a huge change and then changed back?

Kilo just last week

[hcane27]

Latest global model graphics from thehurricanealley.com

[AutoPenalti]

NOTICED THIS WHEN LOOKING AT ERIKA ... KINDA OFF TOPIC AND ITS THE GFS IN LA LA LAND BUT CHECK OUT WHAT SHOWES UP OF THE COAST OF GA/SC AT 384HR
http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/Imageanis.php

Blank page in my browser (firefox).

Not to sure what I'm looking at.

[emeraldislenc]

Do you think the cone will be more east at 5 pm?

[stormlover2013]

I don't think they will change it that much, they will wait for tonights runs to see some consistency!!!

[chaser1]

Do you think the cone will be more east at 5 pm?

Landfall probably slightly nudged to the north and east by 10-20 miles

[Bocadude85]

Latest global model graphics from thehurricanealley.com

Are you sure those are the 12z models? Something seems off to me... Isn't the ECMW the Euro?

[floridasun78]

i learn past cone over south fl models have chance from been over us to making turn to our east so for me i need see were it on friday night and sat morning see how look too it waiting game

[hcane27]

Yes , the ECMW is the Euro .... this one is updated with the 12Z JMA added

[Bocadude85]

Yes , the ECMW is the Euro .... this one is updated with the 12Z JMA added

But the 12z Euro doesn't make landfall in Florida...

[gatorcane]

Looks like the TVCN (consensus track) is just east of the Bahamas. What a shift from the 12Z.

[gatorcane]

Another view, still no good consensus though. We would like to see more of a tight clustering:

[tgenius]

That is slowly getting me to breathe a slight sigh of relief.. if the model runs from tonight and tomorrow morning keep that trend then I will feel muc more comfortable.

[WPBWeather]

That is slowly getting me to breathe a slight sigh of relief.. if the model runs from tonight and tomorrow morning keep that trend then I will feel muc more comfortable.

If it stays weak, could it not go farther west? Large flips are concerning.