Global model runs discussion

[Meso]

Not that far out, 180 hour GFS



And then a monster wave later on emerges off Africa and remains as a closed low for a few days before dissipating.



Overall the GFS seems to be hinting that the wave train will be up in a week or two. Lots of dents in the isobars.

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS certainly hintsd at sometihng, and FWIW the ECM also brings off another wave at exactly the same time so they both key into the same feature...

[wxman57]

Lots of sinking air predicted for the East Pac and Atlantic Basin through about the first week of August. This would indicate a rather quiet next 2 weeks.

[SFLcane]

The gfs has been too aggressive with shifting things westward although things currently are plenty dry over the main development region.

[StormClouds63]

At least 2 weeks before a hint of tropical development. Unfavorable conditions to say the least.

[cycloneye]

The Canadian for the past 4 runs has shown a developing system east of the Lesser Antilles. In this particular run has another little system in the Southern Caribbean.

12z CMC at 144 hours

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[Tropics Guy]

The Bermuda High looks pretty weak in that frame, possible east coast trough at that time , IF something develops during that time frame it would probably be a fish unless high pressure builds in rapidly after that, anyway nice to see that models are starting to show development out of the Atlantic soon..........

TG

[cycloneye]

Colin and Danielle? Well,is way out (10 days) but is something to watch. That system in the Antilles has been shown by the EURO for the past 5 runs.

[Ivanhater]

Notice the ridge placement on the Euro, a change from a strong ridge over the northern Gulf to an open door.

[Macrocane]

The models have been showing a change in the Atlantic pattern with stronger waves and a weaker subtropical ridge, the GFS, CMC, Euro and NOGAPS are seeing that.

[Riptide]

This would definately be the most reasonable way to begin a historical tropical season in August.
Many have alluded to the fact that the environment in the MDR isn't really that hostile, we just need the energy now.

[cycloneye]

New GFS delayed by one day=July 28

It was supposed to be out by the 27th, but read below why they will delay it by one day.

TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE 10-15... AMENDED
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HEADQUARTERS WASHINGTON DC
202 AM EDT MON JUL 19 2010

TO: SUBSCRIBERS:
-FAMILY OF SERVICES
-NOAA WEATHER WIRE SERVICE
-EMERGENCY MANAGERS WEATHER INFORMATION NETWORK
-NOAAPORT
OTHER NWS PARTNERS...USERS AND EMPLOYEES

FROM: TIMOTHY MCCLUNG
SCIENCE PLANS BRANCH CHIEF
OFFICE OF SCIENCE AND TECHNOLOGY

SUBJECT: AMENDED DATE: GLOBAL FORECAST SYSTEM CHANGES:
RESCHEDULED FOR JULY 28 2010

REFER TO: TECHNICAL IMPLEMENTATION NOTICE /TIN/ 10-15
TRANSMITTED APRIL 2 2010...AMENDED TIN 10-15
TRANSMITTED JUNE 14 2010

DUE TO THE COMPLEXITY OF THE IMPLEMENTATION OF THE GLOBAL
FORECAST SYSTEM AND ALL DOWNSTREAM DEPENDENCIES...THE EFFECTIVE
DATE OF THE UPGRADE IS BEING RESCHEDULED FOR WEDNESDAY JULY 28.
IF THE NWS DECLARES A CRITICAL WEATHER DAY ON OR AROUND JULY 28
THE IMPLEMENTATION MIGHT BE DELAYED. ANOTHER TIN WILL BE SENT IF
THIS OCCURS.

In case anyone missed this post, I am bumping it as the new GFS will be unvailed with the 12z on the 28th.

[ROCK]

The models have been showing a change in the Atlantic pattern with stronger waves and a weaker subtropical ridge, the GFS, CMC, Euro and NOGAPS are seeing that.

yeah but models do that every year...climo plays a part in that....in August you get periods of weaker ridging only to build back faster and quicker than say Sept....Trofs are likely to dig deeper in mid- to late Sept...what is comes down to is 4-5 day model runs to see the evolution of the upper environment and the impact on the TC.....

[KWT]

Worth noting those long range forecasts that go into August the Chi 200 forecasts are real prone to changing and shifting about...

Also worth noting its based of the GFS...which has done an *shockingly bad* job on calling this current MJO cycle, the GFS called it to reach phase 6/7, in trutyh its barely going to get into 4 before diving back, such mistakes being made at 7-10 days show why we shouldn't really pay much attention to further out then that.

Anyway the ECM/GFS and other models are certainly seeing at least hints of development, will probably see things get going close to mid month in a major way.

[ROCK]

Worth noting those long range forecasts that go into August the Chi 200 forecasts are real prone to changing and shifting about...

Also worth noting its based of the GFS...which has done an *shockingly bad* job on calling this current MJO cycle, the GFS called it to reach phase 6/7, in trutyh its barely going to get into 4 before diving back, such mistakes being made at 7-10 days show why we shouldn't really pay much attention to further out then that.

Anyway the ECM/GFS and other models are certainly seeing at least hints of development, will probably see things get going close to mid month in a major way.

agreed the lid is coming to off here shortly....just too much heat potential out there....

[Meso]

For what it's worth...

00z CMC Long Range (240 Hours)



Showing 2 storms, one of which develops in the Caribbean in the more believable time frame.

06z GFS Long Range (384 Hours)



Begins as a strong wave exiting Africa at around 180-200 hour frame then develops at around 240 hours

[Stormcenter]

Yawn.........I guess I can catch up on my sleep
until August 15.

[StormClouds63]

The Bermuda High looks pretty weak in that frame, possible east coast trough at that time , IF something develops during that time frame it would probably be a fish unless high pressure builds in rapidly after that, anyway nice to see that models are starting to show development out of the Atlantic soon..........

TG

I think Colin will be a "fish" too.

[tolakram]

12z Canadian hints at development at 72 hours and develops after 72. I don't trust the Canadian past 72 hours but this is worth watching. If the 0z shows development at 72 or before then I'm interested.



From: http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[ronjon]

12Z CMC - first CV major?

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.cgi?time=2010072712&field=Sea+Level+Pressure&hour=Animation