ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ozonepete]

Why does everyone assume this will become a hurricane, it hasn't even cleared Peurto Rico and Hispaniola yet and with its current path which is south of the NHC path it might just hit the big islands an become not much more than it is now which IMO is still an option

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Because to bet against the NHC is to lose most of the time. I see no data or even the current position of Erika that indicate it will go directly over PR or over Hispaniola at all. I see a weak to moderate tropical storm going on the NHC forecast path and then a very clear chance for it to intensify rapidly over the Bahamas. You will make yourself crazy looking at slight center location changes in under 12 hour periods. Trust me. It made me crazy many times.

[Hammy]

Why does everyone assume this will become a hurricane, it hasn't even cleared Peurto Rico and Hispaniola yet and with its current path which is south of the NHC path it might just hit the big islands an become not much more than it is now which IMO is still an option

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Because to bet against the NHC is to lose most of the time. I see no data or even the current position of Erika that indicate it will go directly over PR or over Hispaniola at all. I see a weak to moderate tropical storm going on the NHC forecast path and then a very clear chance for it to intensify rapidly over the Bahamas.

I personally wouldn't rule out Puerto Rico given that it's moving a bit more west than initially expected, so clipping the eastern third of the island might be a possibility at this point. Either way it likely won't have any impact (Georges in 1998 for example went down the full length of the island and only weakened 5 mph.)

[ozonepete]

Why does everyone assume this will become a hurricane, it hasn't even cleared Peurto Rico and Hispaniola yet and with its current path which is south of the NHC path it might just hit the big islands an become not much more than it is now which IMO is still an option

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Because to bet against the NHC is to lose most of the time. I see no data or even the current position of Erika that indicate it will go directly over PR or over Hispaniola at all. I see a weak to moderate tropical storm going on the NHC forecast path and then a very clear chance for it to intensify rapidly over the Bahamas.

I personally wouldn't rule out Puerto Rico given that it's moving a bit more west than initially expected, so clipping the eastern third of the island might be a possibility at this point. Either way it likely won't have any impact (Georges in 1998 for example went down the full length of the island and only weakened 5 mph.)

First I want to say you are one of the best non pro-mets on here, by far, and anyone can see it in your coverage of Danny and Erika.
Second, I said "directly over PR" because I assumed that it might clip the San Juan area.

[Aric Dunn]

Why does everyone assume this will become a hurricane, it hasn't even cleared Peurto Rico and Hispaniola yet and with its current path which is south of the NHC path it might just hit the big islands an become not much more than it is now which IMO is still an option

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Because to bet against the NHC is to lose most of the time. I see no data or even the current position of Erika that indicate it will go directly over PR or over Hispaniola at all. I see a weak to moderate tropical storm going on the NHC forecast path and then a very clear chance for it to intensify rapidly over the Bahamas.

I personally wouldn't rule out Puerto Rico given that it's moving a bit more west than initially expected, so clipping the eastern third of the island might be a possibility at this point. Either way it likely won't have any impact (Georges in 1998 for example went down the full length of the island and only weakened 5 mph.)

its quite possible from the angle of approach and being a exposed center that it might "bounce" off the mountains of PR as the western portion of the circ drags on the mountains it would rotate up and around. its happened many time times. OF course it does not mean much if it does.. but its fun to watch..

[Sanibel]

The IR burst should mean there's plenty of energy once it gets stacked.

[ROCK]

agree with Aric...many times interaction with land will tighten up a circulation...many examples Humberto, Alicia and even Ike

[Hammy]

I've been keeping tabs of the model runs (putting plot points for every 24 hours for every run over the last several weeks) and just finished the 18z GFS's run, and when looking at the finished track couldn't help but be reminded of this, strictly track-wise.



That said if the GFS of anything close plays out (preferably with limited land impact) it would rack up a nice bit of ACE.

[ericinmia]

its quite possible from the angle of approach and being a exposed center that it might "bounce" off the mountains of PR as the western portion of the circ drags on the mountains it would rotate up and around. its happened many time times. OF course it does not mean much if it does.. but its fun to watch..

Ivan was a good example of land interaction (mountains) on an organized storm....

[Blinhart]

Am I the only thinking of Andrew and Lily with this system?

[Aric Dunn]

GFS is pretty far south this run...

[bahamaswx]

South and west.

[fci]

Granted the models can and likely will shift I see a trend with south fl being moved away from the cone. I would think by 5am would be even farther unless euro pulls back west. Regardless it will bring some squally weather down here.

Actually we would probably not got much in the way of direct effects if the storm was off shore like that. West side being the weak side and especially this storm which has had little to no convection on its west side.

However, the afternoon convective storms would probably track from SW to NE and bring rain to SE FL. but probably not squalls from Erika.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks like models could shift back west again.

[ozonepete]

Latest GFS has it close, but no Florida landfall.

[tropicwatch]

I have been looking at the trough that everyone thinks that will pick Erika up. If Erika was past Puerto Rico already I would agree. It is not and the front has gone stationary over Florida but you can still see the southwestern portion still diving towards Mexico. Two days from now it will no longer be as strong, might start backing up towards the northwest or dissipate. JMO.




Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[fci]

I would not let your guard down in Florida. Almost the entire Florida Peninsula is still in the cone. Track could start shifting back west. Hopefully Erika don't hit any land.....MGC

Always a wise thing to not let your guard down until the storm actually passes, however; I can't recall seeing a track shift back once it made the shift East. Doesn't mean it can't but that would be pretty rare. Last one I specifically remember was Jeanne that was supposed to move north and didn't, huge exception to the norm.

[ericinmia]

I would not let your guard down in Florida. Almost the entire Florida Peninsula is still in the cone. Track could start shifting back west. Hopefully Erika don't hit any land.....MGC

Always a wise thing to not let your guard down until the storm actually passes, however; I can't recall seeing a track shift back once it made the shift East. Doesn't mean it can't but that would be pretty rare. Last one I specifically remember was Jeanne that was supposed to move north and didn't, huge exception to the norm.

Frances was also supposed to ride up the Florida coast.... and many NHC advisories mapped this, but she was influenced elsewhere.

[Sanibel]

The small burst that's tagging the center just burst black IR. That's a sign of energy.

[Aric Dunn]

radar showing deeper convection firing right on the the southern part of the center with a little trying to wrap around up the east side..

[Aric Dunn]

The small burst that's tagging the center just burst black IR. That's a sign of energy.

this of course will migrate and build away from the center until the shear lessens