Global model runs discussion

[ronjon]

It's way out but GFS indicating an active start to the CV season.

[Weatherfreak000]

That's just scary. Models build back in high pressure as well. The storms will be able to go very far west when we start this August.


Dangerous month if that GFS verifies. OR the CMC.

[Florida1118]

So according to GFS, we will be getting to E soon?I don't know. Any way, if the high builds back all those systems are moving towards the south coast? Man I hope people are prepared. (IF it happens)

[SeminoleWind]

lets hope thats wrong or people in Florida to Louisiana will have big problems to deal with.

[wxman57]

The GFS image posted above is from the "old" GFS. The updated version (parallel run) replaces it tomorrow. Its forecast is a bit different, showing one storm in the SW Gulf and another by Africa. All indications are that the season will really begin the 2nd week of August:

[Blown Away]

Wxman57, I know it's mostly a timing thing w/ the BH, now that it is almost August can we get a sense of the steering patterns? Seems to me w/ -NAO and La Nina we should see more recurves from systems forming in the Atlantic? Any indication now that SFL/ GOM or NE CONUS may be targets from these systems?

[loup-garou]

I hate these scary models. It does not look good.

[srainhoutx]

HPC thoughts in Final Extended Disco:

IN THE TROPICS...THE GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MEMBERS ARGUED FOR A QUARTET
OF FEATURES...TWO TROPICAL WAVES CROSSING THE ATLANTIC WHICH DO
NOT APPEAR TO SEPARATE FROM THE ITCZ...ONE TROPICAL WAVE INDUCED
BY A RETROGRADING UPPER CYCLONE IN THE FAR EASTERN TROPICAL
PACIFIC LATE IN THE PERIOD...AND A POSSIBLE TROPICAL CYCLONE
MOVING WEST-NORTHWEST TO THE WEST OF MAINLAND MEXICO. NHC AND HPC
POINTS WERE QUITE CLOSE AT 16Z...AND AN AGREED-UPON COMPROMISE WAS
USED FOR THE MOST RECENT PRESSURES.


http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/pmdepd.html

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO quiet

[Ivanhater]

Nogaps shows a trio of storms heading west from the cape verde...I think these models are showing us the real season is about to start

[Frank2]

As long as folks new to this site (or those Wall Street types that lurk here), realize that the NWS discussion is for a 384-hour product (a/k/a almost 100% fiction)...

The NWS generates a discussion product for the sake of posting a discussion of the run itself - though anyone who views something like that must realize it will change from one run to the next (the earlier map and the later map are a good example of how much can change in just one run), but it's a reflection of the upcoming active portion of the season, anyway - whether it comes to pass is another matter...

Personally, a nice tropical wave through this area isn't a bad thing, and in fact most people last Friday (myself included) were happy with Bonnie as it was, as a means to give us all-day cloud cover and temps in the low 80s - it's roasting out there today...

Frank

[MiamiHurricanes10]

12z CMC developing a hurricane in the middle of the Atlantic basing originating from the tropical wave just over the African coast. The wave emerges, develops into a tropical depression by 84 hours, and then takes off. As the system intensifies it goes poleward and by the end of the run is heading towards the NW/N.

[MiamiHurricanes10]

Lots of sinking air predicted for the East Pac and Atlantic Basin through about the first week of August. This would indicate a rather quiet next 2 weeks.

I disagree with the GFS in terms of the strength of the downward motion. Upward motion has barely touched octant 4 through 8 in the past 40-50 days. With all the heat focused in the Atlantic (La Nina, well-defined Atlantic tri-pole, etc...) I see the upward motion just meandering right back to octant 1 and 2. Latest MJO graphs also suggest that the MJO is faltering in octant 3 (where it currently is) and is right back on its way to mommy Atlantic.

[KWT]

Yeah I've already said the MJO forecast was terrible and the wave has now stalled in phase 3, the GFS is finally flipping back to the more realistic solution and as a result we are starting to see a ramp up of the long range systems on quite a few of the models.

Anyway the models do seem to finally starting to sense some change in the Atlantic, a nice large upper high will hopefully help to shunt the upper low production zone out of possible systems paths.

[floridasun78]

this nogap want start peak part of hurr season next week we see system by PR next week AUG 3 https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical so get guys and ladys i hope you got kits ready in PR and rest carribbean and us coast line

[CourierPR]

AccuWeather says that next week the dry stable air in the Atlantic basin will give way to moist unstable air and that the shear will abate.

[KWT]

It has to be said the current operational GFS which ends tomorrow is very suggestive of some longer rangr development, Whilst the convective feedback issues on that version of the model maybe helping to create systems, there can be no doubt the CV zone becomes much more favourable in the next 10-14 days. Probably will see something before the 10th August from east of 50W.

The GFS sneds the wave just coming off Africa all the way to the Yucatan which would be a reasonable track based on the developing upper high that forms past 168hrs in the Atlantic.

[cycloneye]

Only two more runs left for the actual operational GFS as the new version takes over at the 12z package tommorow.

[Ivanhater]

If the GFS is right, we will have Colin, Danielle, Earl and Fiona by August 12th

[floridasun78]

it was nogap not gfs forecast next week system i notice it was nogap look at link i post earlyer