ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[abajan]

Judging by how these systems tend to bomb during the night, I have a gut feeling we're going to be looking at a Cat 4 by 5 AM.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[lilybeth]

Checked Weather Underground and San Salvador, Bahamas is currently thunderstorms with winds at 40 mph along with gusts to 50 mph. I hope everyone down there in the islands stays safe - esp if he parks there for a while.

[AutoPenalti]

Hey there AutoP! DMAX and DMIN refer to the Diurnal Maximum and Diurnal Minimum of thunderstorm intensity that typically occurs in tropical cyclones over 24 hours. To understand this remember that the hurricane's core thunderstorms (the storm engine) thrive by pulling warm surface air up to very high levels where it is extremely cold. The warmer the surface and the colder the thunderstorm tops, the more intense the thunderstorms are, so the bigger the temp difference between the bottomand top of the thunderstorms, the more intense the storms and the hurricane. During both the day and night the core thunderstorms have very warm air below (air warmed by high water temps) but during the day the sun heats the tops of the thunderstorms so that they are not quite as cold topped and thus a little weaker. At night with no sun, the thunderstorm tops can get really cold and thus the temp difference from bottom to top gets larger and the thunderstorms get more intense. So the longer the day wears on the more the thunderstorms weaken and we have the diurnal minimum, DMIN. At night, as the tops get colder and colder we get DMAX. Thus DMIN is just before the sun goes down and DMAX just before the sun goes up. Ok?

Beautiful explanation! Thanks!

Sorry if I'm annoying you guys, just a lot Mets and amateur mets here and I feel like I'm learning a lot.

[floridasun78]

did bamajammer4eva ever explain what he say by According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.

[bahamaswx]

Checked Weather Underground and San Salvador, Bahamas is currently thunderstorms with winds at 40 mph along with gusts to 50 mph. I hope everyone down there in the islands stays safe - esp if he parks there for a while.

We had some veryyyy high tides today all across the Bahamas.

[kat61]

I'm in Hampstead NC, Cape Fear Coast, Topsail area. To you professionals and experts, what are you thinking about the water we already have from the past 10 days and storm surge?

[AutoPenalti]

did bamajammer4eva ever explain what he say by According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.

No, but essentially the lower the pressure the change in steering from ??? to ???.

[tropicwatch]

According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Well it looks like Joaquin is more under the influence of the high to its southwest. The high should have to weaken or move in a direction where the trough can start to have more of an impact and start to move north.

[floridasun78]

According to this steering map, direction changes significantly if J... continues to intensify below 940mb.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/d ... oom=&time=

Well it looks like Joaquin is more under the influence of the high to its southwest. The high should have to weaken or move in a direction where the trough can start to have more of an impact and start to move north.

so high not pulling it yet to north or nw

[JonathanBelles]

New post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/09/30/po ... trengthen/

[abajan]

Checked Weather Underground and San Salvador, Bahamas is currently thunderstorms with winds at 40 mph along with gusts to 50 mph. I hope everyone down there in the islands stays safe - esp if he parks there for a while.

We had some veryyyy high tides today all across the Bahamas.

I'm sure you did. Also, due to the exremely shallow waters throughout The Bahamas, I imagine the potential height of the storm surge has to be a major concern.

This post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just my opinion and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC after the latest 00z run.

[ConvergenceZone]

The 11pm advisory tonight will be real interesting. I'm guessing they'll have Joaquin peaking stronger before weakening.

I'm thinking they up the peak intensity to Cat 4, and that comes sooner (maybe by late tomorrow) before ERC's begin the weakening.

I agree. I think a Cat 4 is definitely "possible" when it's peaking. Of course that's really big because even though it's predicted to weaken as it approaches land, it might mean that the storm will still be stronger than forecast if it does hit land. I think the confidence is growing in a U.S. landfall. We will see what the late night models do.

[Alyono]

how many times is the recon data going to fail to come in? This is getting rediculous

[CrazyC83]

Missing 2 data sets.

[kat61]

thank you for the education

[ConvergenceZone]

New post: http://jonathanbelles.com/2015/09/30/po ... trengthen/

Love reading your reports as always Jonathan, keep posting them

[RL3AO]

how many times is the recon data going to fail to come in? This is getting rediculous

Maybe the comm equipment will enter the 21st century soon...

[Hammy]

Very evident upper anticyclone showing up now.

[northjaxpro]

Big shift south, with most models now concentrating on a landfall from the SC-NC coastal region atm.