ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

The 11pm advisory tonight will be real interesting. I'm guessing they'll have Joaquin peaking stronger before weakening.

I'm thinking they up the peak intensity to Cat 4, and that comes sooner (maybe by late tomorrow) before ERC's begin the weakening.

I agree. I think a Cat 4 is definitely "possible" when it's peaking. Of course that's really big because even though it's predicted to weaken as it approaches land, it might mean that the storm will still be stronger than forecast if it does hit land. I think the confidence is growing in a U.S. landfall. We will see what the late night models do.

If it doesn't hit an ERC or upwelling, I wouldn't entirely rule out Cat 5 in the next 24-36 hours either.

[TheProfessor]

Very evident upper anticyclone showing up now.

That would help vent the storm better right?

[CronkPSU]

Very evident upper anticyclone showing up now.

That would help vent the storm better right?

yep...

[tolakram]

live 30 frame IR loop

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=24&lon=-74&info=ir&zoom=2&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=30&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

[ozonepete]

Hey there AutoP! DMAX and DMIN refer to the Diurnal Maximum and Diurnal Minimum of thunderstorm intensity that typically occurs in tropical cyclones over 24 hours. To understand this remember that the hurricane's core thunderstorms (the storm engine) thrive by pulling warm surface air up to very high levels where it is extremely cold. The warmer the surface and the colder the thunderstorm tops, the more intense the thunderstorms are, so the bigger the temp difference between the bottomand top of the thunderstorms, the more intense the storms and the hurricane. During both the day and night the core thunderstorms have very warm air below (air warmed by high water temps) but during the day the sun heats the tops of the thunderstorms so that they are not quite as cold topped and thus a little weaker. At night with no sun, the thunderstorm tops can get really cold and thus the temp difference from bottom to top gets larger and the thunderstorms get more intense. So the longer the day wears on the more the thunderstorms weaken and we have the diurnal minimum, DMIN. At night, as the tops get colder and colder we get DMAX. Thus DMIN is just before the sun goes down and DMAX just before the sun goes up. Ok?

Beautiful explanation! Thanks!

Sorry if I'm annoying you guys, just a lot Mets and amateur mets here and I feel like I'm learning a lot.

You are welcome and no it's not annoying at all. Smart people ask questions and learn. That's what we're here for.

[smithtim]

??? If I'm not mistaken it went from 80 @ 5pm to 105 @ 8pm update ( they noted got info from hunters..)

My question is that difference really because not best data before and good update from plane OR could this thing be in rapid intensification


Thanks : ))

[1900hurricane]

Got a Coriolis pass a little while back. Was still a little south-weighted at the time, but looking good.



IR image at that time:



Since then, the system has continued to grow some.

[Weatherlover12]

I know I asked this but when is this gonna move N?

I live on the FL east coast & I don't expect this to make landfall but it seems like if it comes close enough we could get rain and wind.

I have friends in the Bahamas who just found out about this today and they're rushing to prepare & I don't want to be caught of guard either. So what's the verdict?

[RL3AO]

??? If I'm not mistaken it went from 80 @ 5pm to 105 @ 8pm update ( they noted got info from hunters..)

My question is that difference really because not best data before and good update from plane OR could this thing be in rapid intensification


Thanks : ))

Most likely the former. Your best bet is to compare it to the last recon data from 7am, which was 75 mph winds and a central pressure of 971 hPa.

[TheProfessor]

I hope people on the East coast are already preparing, there isn't much time until this storm could make landfall, only a few days.

[Alyono]

how many times is the recon data going to fail to come in? This is getting rediculous

Maybe the comm equipment will enter the 21st century soon...

that may not happen until the 25th century

[emeraldislenc]

So will the NHC shift it south at 11?

[floridasun78]

do trough look weaker from yesterday?

[CrazyC83]

do trough look weaker from yesterday?

Not to my eye, if anything it looks stronger, but the southern position may keep Joaquin from interacting.

[northjaxpro]

I hope people on the East coast are already preparing, there isn't much time until this storm could make landfall, only a few days.

Could be as early as Saturday night into Sunday for some area on the U.S. East Coast

[Hammy]

No word from recon for about an hour, are there communication problems?

[Lifeless]

Interestingly the intensity guide on Tropical Tidbits already suggesting a Cat 3 as it heads into the Bahamas. Anyone like to fill me in where its getting that information from?

[NDG]

Weather starting to go downhill at the central Bahamas, I hope they had enough to get impacted by a major hurricane.

[tolakram]

Latest IR with track