ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SunnyThoughts]

I think Erica's center is redeveloping back to SE of that big burst. This changes a lot IMHO. Not an official forecast, but it looks very interesting. Models may shift west again.

Oh im quite sure they will shift west again at some point, then east again etc. UP until they resolve the issue with that ridge and how strong it is and if and when it develops a weakness or breaks down.



Just an opinion, pay attention to NHC for official information.

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF looks to be a hair further north of Puerto Rico on 18z vs 12z.

[tolakram]

In my opinion, based on previous GFS failures, the upper air pattern is difficult and the GFS is probably wrong. Recurve is the most likely scenario but it seems timing si going to mean everything in this case. Timing of where the storm is and how fast it strengthens. THis is just my amateur opinion.

[tolakram]

HWRF

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

Could 18z GFS be hinting a loop?

[Bocadude85]

18zHWRF is north of the 12z so far

[Bocadude85]

I'm wondering if Erika could just stall out in the Bahamas before heading west at some point. Didn't the models do something similar with Frances before shifting back to a Florida hit?

[Steve]

Could 18z GFS be hinting a loop?

What it ends up doing is drifting SE before getting picked up and out. Not sure that's how it would go exactly, and we don't know how high the heights will be with building high pressure over top. So it's really more wait a few days to see if a stall or loop or whatever is a legitimate possibility which many have been hinting at the last several days.

[bahamaswx]

I think I've seen 50x more loops done by hurricanes in models than done by hurricanes in real life.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm wondering if Erika could just stall out in the Bahamas before heading west at some point. Didn't the models do something similar with Frances before shifting back to a Florida hit?

Frances forecast in the same general area...

[gatorcane]

The 18Z NAVGEM up nearly the entire east coast of Florida:

[JPmia]

There's talk of center relocations, multiple vortices and possible dissipation so I am not sure any trend in the models can be trusted at the moment. I know the models account for a weakened state, but their initialization points might not be correct. Small changes in current location and track have large consequences down the road. I will say this, ordering hurricane supplies on Amazon has been one of the most delightful preparation strategies I have ever implemented.

[wzrgirl1]

Norcross on TWC just mentioned that one of the models showed a loop. Not sure which one. They were also discussing Bathymetry. Not sure what that is. Turned it on towards the end of the discussion.

[CronkPSU]

There's talk of center relocations, multiple vortices and possible dissipation so I am not sure any trend in the models can be trusted at the moment. I know the models account for a weakened state, but their initialization points might not be correct. Small changes in current location and track have large consequences down the road. I will say this, ordering hurricane supplies on Amazon has been one of the most delightful preparation strategies I have ever implemented.

What a freaking great idea and use of my prime membership that I always forget...

[Kohlecane]

Norcross on TWC just mentioned that one of the models showed a loop. Not sure which one. They were also discussing Bathymetry. Not sure what that is. Turned it on towards the end of the discussion.

Just literally did the same thing

[gatorcane]

18Z HWRF looks to have shifted even more east and it has done so with a weaker system too.

[Bocadude85]

18Z HWRF looks to have shifted even more east and it has done so with a weaker system too.

Yup further northeast. Models really have shifted east. I would assume the NHC will follow suit at 11pm

[gatorcane]

FIM-9:

[N2FSU]

HWRF +90hr