ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Blown Away]

Already south of the 5pm track...

[SunnyThoughts]

Well apparently we are NOT going to get anymore obs from the HH. When does the next plane take off? Early am I take it?

[blp]

Take a look at track on Monday and now today. The were way off on the SW movement.

Monday


Today:

[Alyono]

a tail is about to set up over Haiti. It may linger for 2 days. Massive flooding and loss of life a distinct possibility. A repeat of Hanna cannot be ruled out

[RL3AO]

Interestingly the intensity guide on Tropical Tidbits already suggesting a Cat 3 as it heads into the Bahamas. Anyone like to fill me in where its getting that information from?

The 0z best track data from NHC was 100kt.

AL, 11, 2015100100, , BEST, 0, 239N, 730W, 100, 951, HU

[gatorcane]

Joaquin is so strong it now looks to have turned ex-99L (swirl off the East Coast of Florida) to the south.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[floridasun78]

No word from recon for about an hour, are there communication problems?

this last one i got from recon Time: 00:41:30Z

[floridasun78]

plane report pressure of 952 how low will it go poor Bahama

[Blown Away]

Some formidable analogs for Joaquin...

[gatorcane]

Joaquin is so strong it now looks to have turned ex-99L (swirl off the East Coast of Florida) to the south.

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

In fact look at the low clouds as far as way as the Eastern Gulf as they seem to be getting "sucked" into Joaquin as they move SE.

This hurricane is basically influencing weather that far away. I wonder if Joaquin can attain CAT 4 or even CAT 5 status before all is said and done?

[NDG]

All I am saying is that if Joaquin continues with its southerly track the Euro's operational run could be more right than wrong, all the models that slam it into the US east coast want it to turn north fairly fast and do not show it go as far south as the Euro has it.
Many of us, including some pro-mets, were laughing at the Euro for tracking it towards the Bahamas as a Major Hurricane.

[HurrMark]

Sinking below 24N...

[LarryWx]

I cannot for the life of me remember who, but one poster for months had been warning of a possible major threat between mid-September and mid-October. That threat appears to be here and in that time frame.

I think it was LarryWx.

But he was referring to a GoM/NE Gulf threat as opposed to this I believe.

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117035&start=500

To quote him:

"As we get to Sept.: if the MJO were to remain within the circle, that actually becomes favorable per hard stats compiled for 1995-2012. Regardless, as far as CONUS threats are concerned, I wouldn't let a quiet August lead one to believe that Sept-Oct. will likely have no H threats based on the prior 2nd year very strong Nino seasons. Though I'm not predicting this since it isn't predictable, two CONUS H hits in Sep.-Oct. (especially mid-Sep. through mid Oct.) wouldn't at all be surprising to me based on history of similar ENSO. If so, my educated guess is that they wouldn't be storms that form east of 50W."

Edit: I'm not 100% sure but looks like Joaquin formed at 27.5N 68.7W

That's cool that you three remembered this on such a busy forum. It being so busy here is why I mentioned this a few times. Related to this, here is the link to the original S2K post I made on 8/10/15 with the backup data:

viewtopic.php?f=31&t=117035&st=0&sk=t&sd=a&start=486

The idea in my mind was that there is heightened risk based on similar 2nd year very strong El Nino seasons data of 1-2 CONUS H hits as strong as cat 3 during the 9/15-10/15 period. However, as "TheStormExpert" correctly said, I was harping on the NE GOM (especially NW FL) as the most likely CONUS area to be hit if this were to occur. So, absent a H hit on NW FL (especially if it were to be a cat 2 or 3) by 10/15, I won't claim a victory for this.

[gatorcane]

Looks to me like Joaquin is still sagging south along 73W, maybe SSW, how much latitude will he lose?

To Alyono's point, Haiti looks like it may get the tail soon and that might cause issues with flooding.

Also for the Bahamas, this could be very ugly. I am sure this storm is catching them off guard. Could be devastating for them.

[deltadog03]

Hot off the presses! LOL new weather video update talking about Joaquin. Not a super long update, but some thoughts and ideas on there as well. Thanks for watching and like my page if you want. Thanks! @wxmanchris on twitter as well.
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

[northjaxpro]

Well, it appears that Joaquin will continue moving southwest well into tomorrow. It is possible it may move as far south or slightly below even of 22 degrees latitude.

[CrazyC83]

Hot off the presses! LOL new weather video update talking about Joaquin. Not a super long update, but some thoughts and ideas on there as well. Thanks for watching and like my page if you want. Thanks! @wxmanchris on twitter as well.
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

You definitely have great videos!

[gatorcane]

Based on this loop, it looks to be pretty steady SW movement though:

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

[northjaxpro]

Looks to me like Joaquin is still sagging south along 73W, maybe SSW, how much latitude will he lose?

To Alyono's point, Haiti looks like it may get the tail soon and that might cause issues with flooding.

Also for the Bahamas, this could be very ugly. I am sure this storm is catching them off guard. Could be devastating for them.

I am afraid that the Bahamas may suffer some devastating effects from Joaquin. My prayers are with those folks down there for certain!

[deltadog03]

Hot off the presses! LOL new weather video update talking about Joaquin. Not a super long update, but some thoughts and ideas on there as well. Thanks for watching and like my page if you want. Thanks! @wxmanchris on twitter as well.
https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons

You definitely have great videos!

Thank you!