Global model runs discussion

[KWT]

The 12z GFS develops a region close to where Bonnie first tried to develop but the ridge isn't as strong:

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod ... n_156l.gif

African wave heading towards far E.Caribbean.

[cycloneye]

At very long range GFS has this off East Florida.

[cycloneye]

The 12z CMC continues with the development in the MDR and develops the wave now approaching the Lesser Antilles in the Western Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[KWT]

The 12z GFS long range is very interesting, the wave evetnually develops from Africa and then sits in a region of very slack steering currents. In truth I reckon the model is underdoing the trades but the general idea would lead to horrid conditions for the SE states!

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z CMC continues with the development in the MDR and develops the wave now approaching the Lesser Antilles in the Western Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

yep but it merges with the wave leaving africa....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

[cycloneye]

The 12z CMC continues with the development in the MDR and develops the wave now approaching the Lesser Antilles in the Western Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

yep but it merges with the wave leaving africa....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That is why I generalized development in the MDR, not saying any system in particular.

[KWT]

The GFS also does make a possible subtropical system in the Atlantic as a low develops close to the Azores high.

[Aric Dunn]

The 12z CMC continues with the development in the MDR and develops the wave now approaching the Lesser Antilles in the Western Caribbean.

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

yep but it merges with the wave leaving africa....

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/cgi-bin/cmctc2.c ... =Animation

That is why I generalized development in the MDR, not saying any system in particular.

well that makes sense... lol

[Aric Dunn]

12z nogaps does essentially the same thing just has 2 separate vorts to deal with.. although it does eventually develop a pretty decent TC... at least the models are some what agreeing on the environment to be conducive..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[cycloneye]

What you said Aric. The models may have different tracks and intensities, but are seeing the pattern being favorable for cyclogeneris to take place in the next few days.

[blp]

That run shows our current wave that is reaching the leewards developing later into a nice system in BOC.

12z nogaps does essentially the same thing just has 2 separate vorts to deal with.. although it does eventually develop a pretty decent TC... at least the models are some what agreeing on the environment to be conducive..

https://www.fnmoc.navy.mil/wxmap_cgi/cg ... t=Tropical

[Aric Dunn]

:uarrow: What you said Aric. The models may have different tracks and intensities, but are seeing the pattern being favorable for cyclogeneris to take place in the next few days.

is that question.. lol

[KWT]

Yeah the GFS also does show some fairly decent Vorticity heading into the S.Caribbean from the wave we are watching heading into the Lesser Antilies.

[ronjon]

I see the 12Z GFS wants to split the vorticity from the disturbance near 30W with one piece veering off into the N Atlantic but the main piece developing into a tropical cyclone which turns north near the keys and inland up the FL peninsula to off the SC coast - very similar to Donna in 1960. Of course, this is fantasy, but interesting run. Long range models appear to bring this system toward the SE US but its way to far to speculate on that. I'm curious as to what the Euro shows this afternoon.

[South Texas Storms]

very long range gfs spins up a tropical cyclone in 360 hours (aug. 18) and heads it for tx/la coast. that might just be the next one to track (possibly danielle)

[KWT]

We'd be beyond the D storm if this 18z came off, we have a system that forms in the Mid Atlantic, then another from the CV region, then shortly after the Gulf system you mention, it'd be either the E/F storm if the 18z GFS was right.

[Wx_Warrior]

Yesterday 18z GFS had a Cat 3 in Lake Charles.

[KWT]

Its the 18z afterall, it is well known to throw out some pretty wacky long range ideas at time...

Though that system it forecasted on 18z will probably develop, but track into CA instead I reckon.

[Wx_Warrior]

[Ivanhater]

Gotta low rider that develops in just 6 days off Africa...eventually gets to the western Caribbean