ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[Frank2]

Wow, it looks pretty awful (as in pizza-like) - is recon still out there?

LOL

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[SouthFLTropics]

I'm having a real hard time spotting the LLC and quite frankly if she doesn't start gaining some latitude quickly she is going to slam right into PR and DR. Perhaps the Euro weak solution has credence. If this trend continues I could definitely foresee the GFS coming more left on the 12z.

[BobHarlem]

Where is the center now? I honestly can't tell on radar or satellite.

[txwatcher91]

I'm having a real hard time spotting the LLC and quite frankly if she doesn't start gaining some latitude quickly she is going to slam right into PR and DR. Perhaps the Euro weak solution has credence. If this trend continues I could definitely foresee the GFS coming more left on the 12z.

It's hard to spot on visible and even radar very difficult. Maybe the center is relocating?

[Frank2]

Not to be a broken record (what's a record), the NHC did say that dissipation was also a possibility - the GFS has shown that more than once, the past several days...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[BobHarlem]

Those reports of flooding in Dominica seem pretty extreme. Amazingly they didn't even have a Tropical Storm warning for them. (It was up to the local governments)

[BucMan2]

May be the NVGEM was on to something?

[msbee]

I have been very disappointed by much of the discussion of Erika in the past few days ONLY focusing on Florida and the USA. I have asked for some analysis of what you all might think could be the effects of Erika on the islands..I didn't get much response.
I realize there are only a handful of islanders here.
But, while, you all are discussing possible impacts 0n Florida, here is what is happening in Dominica.
They are getting hit hard. Lots of flooding and damage

[psyclone]

Those reports of flooding in Dominica seem pretty extreme. Amazingly they didn't even have a Tropical Storm warning for them. (It was up to the local governments)

Are they (or anyone, for that matter) experiencing sustained tropical storm force winds? If not, the lack of a warning was the right call. Heavy rain isn't the reason for a TS warning.

[tolakram]

Erika is still on the edge of this view but if you speed the loop up I think you can see where the center, such that it is, is located.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=13&mapcolor=gray

[tolakram]

On this loop, watch the wind barbs. Still not clear, but maybe a general idea?

http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis/online/loop.asp?data_folder=tropical/tropical_ge_4km_visir2_floater_1&width=640&height=480&number_of_images_to_display=40

[Frank P]

Erika is still on the edge of this view but if you speed the loop up I think you can see where the center, such that it is, is located.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=14&lon=-62&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=13&mapcolor=gray

WOW, that almost looks like an eddy getting spit out, and is well south of the projected NHC forecast path... not looking all that health right now... my untrained opinion only!

[tolakram]

Recon is in the system and painting a very interesting picture.

[txwatcher91]

Is that a second center trying to form SE of the current center?

[Dean4Storms]

I believe the floods in Dominica are from Danny's remnants not Erika, correct?

[Frank2]

Many years ago I read an AF research paper that said weak systems often have multiple centers - no doubt the NHC will go with the smooth track for now and not consider any other swirls, unless they become the dominate feature...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[ConvergenceZone]

if it can survive today and tonight then it should be full steam ahead!! Right now it looks exactly like it suppose to look like, a very sheared system.

[Kohlecane]

what times do the 12z GFS and Euro run?

[stormlover2013]

10:30 GFS and EURO around 12:45

[msbee]

I believe the floods in Dominica are from Danny's remnants not Erika, correct?

No, they are from Erika.
Watch the video.. raging rivers taking a buildign down in Dominiica
http://www.weather.com/safety/hurricane ... da-impacts

reports from local Dominica radio are reporting possible deaths..3 people missing from landslides