ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[toad strangler]

Why are they shifting east? I thought their was a ridge?
I also thought it would go more west since it's barely hanging on?
It's hard enough getting local people to even think about Erika but I'm nervous and afraid because we don't what's happening.
Do you think it's going to flop back west?
The weekend is coming up and I want to prepare but I'm so confused and unsure. I think everyone feels this way.

WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

There are many that over react to individual model runs so you have to kinda filter out the noise to glean the real good stuff being posted.

[NDG]

I was looking at the models archive the last few minutes, ever since Erika was an invest, and since day one tropical models have been for the most part right biased in the 3-5 day range, even the HWRF. Something to keep in mind.

[Steve H.]

weatherlover, no need to panic. I think there will be a much better idea of what is going to happen by Friday. So take a deep breathe and relax tonight.

[TheProfessor]

Why are they shifting east? I thought their was a ridge?
I also thought it would go more west since it's barely hanging on?
It's hard enough getting local people to even think about Erika but I'm nervous and afraid because we don't what's happening.
Do you think it's going to flop back west?
The weekend is coming up and I want to prepare but I'm so confused and unsure. I think everyone feels this way.

WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

There are many that over react to individual model runs so you have to kinda filter out the noise to glean the real good stuff being posted.

To answer your question though, the models are showing further east because they forcasted a stronger trough that allows weakness in the ridge, allowing a stronger Erika to find the weakness and go further east and possibly out to sea, or for a weaker Erika to stay more west. I wouldn't say that many are over reacting (though a few are) but that when drastic changes occur it's like getting a totally new present for your birthday, your first present is new scuba gear and you're super excited then you open up a brand new ps4 or xbox one and you get super excited all over again due to the big difference. But because we are still fairly far out, I wouldn't put any eggs into any model and would instead prepare in case they turn west. Remember, its always better safe than sorry!

[Bocadude85]

I was looking at the models archive the last few minutes, ever since Erika was an invest, and since day one tropical models have been for the most part right biased in the 3-5 day range, even the HWRF. Something to keep in mind.

I think they were right biased with Danny also.

[deltadog03]

First call on my Facebook page, and twitter pages as well. Here is the map. I know there are MANY possible solutions, but here is my best forecast as of now. Flame away!

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons
https://twitter.com/wxmanchris

[AutoPenalti]

I'm still not convinced that trough will make it that south.

[ObsessedMiami]

weatherlover, no need to panic. I think there will be a much better idea of what is going to happen by Friday. So take a deep breathe and relax tonight.

One of the most sensible posts this evening.

[gatorcane]

Let us not forget just how close the 12Z ECMWF gets to SE Florida and the FL east coast. I think we are assuming that the ECMWF 00Z run that starts at 1:45AM EST tonight will shift east with the rest of the models (which is quite possible), but what if it doesn't and it shifts a little bit back west or even stays the same?

Zoomed in 12Z ECMWF at 120 hours, plenty of room for error here:

[SouthFLTropics]

First call on my Facebook page, and twitter pages as well. Here is the map. I know there are MANY possible solutions, but here is my best forecast as of now. Flame away!

https://www.facebook.com/ChriswxmanSimmons
https://twitter.com/wxmanchris

Thanks for putting it right on my house delta??? LOL

[gulf701]

Models have sure come a long way a forecasting tool and sure can be confusing. But that is weather at it's best, confusing It should make us all respect the forecasters at NHC and the remarkable job they do in forecasting. They are the ones with the awesome responsibility. It is fun to try and guess what eventually will happen with a tropical system, especially when they are still week. I do so much enjoy everyone's input with a special thanks to the Pro Mets.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Why are they shifting east? I thought their was a ridge?
I also thought it would go more west since it's barely hanging on?
It's hard enough getting local people to even think about Erika but I'm nervous and afraid because we don't what's happening.
Do you think it's going to flop back west?
The weekend is coming up and I want to prepare but I'm so confused and unsure. I think everyone feels this way.

WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

Might should back away from the keyboard and take a break for a while. There's nothing to be afraid of. As other pro mets just said the intensity forecasts are pure entertainment that should be taken with a grain of salt. Just watch the 6 hour forecasts from the nhc and you will be fine. And they are shifting east because a stronger trough is dropping down, therefore weakening and eroding the ridge leaving a substantial weakness along the east coast for this to turn and move north. If they are still trending east into tomorrow morning you should definitely fell much better and less confused.

[SunnyThoughts]

Good call deltadog. As usual, timing is the key, intensity is difficult to predict, but within the next couple of days, hopefully we get a better idea about that ridge, and any weakness it shows, in order to take the system farther away from the east coast. Everyone from South Fla to North Carolina should keep an eye on their local weather stations as well as the NHC in order to plan for what could happen. Better to be prepared and have it miss your location than the opposite. Stay safe everybody.


Just an opinion, stay tuned to NHC for official information

[deltadog03]

Thanks everyone!! thanks for the new likes on FB and follows on Twitter. Great work on the post Jonathan!

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Why are they shifting east? I thought their was a ridge?
I also thought it would go more west since it's barely hanging on?
It's hard enough getting local people to even think about Erika but I'm nervous and afraid because we don't what's happening.
Do you think it's going to flop back west?
The weekend is coming up and I want to prepare but I'm so confused and unsure. I think everyone feels this way.

WeatherLover12- Not a pro met.. Just a citizen

The good and bad thing about a tropical system is that they take so long to develop. that's good, because that gives you plenty of time to prepare. It's bad, because it gives a lot of people too much time to worry. At this time, it is in the worry stage, unfortunately. Just try to sit back and relax for another day or so, it will come into better focus by Friday i am sure. Until then, have a drink and enjoy the view.

[La Breeze]

Good advice Cyclone Mike and Wilmington Sandbar, GOM seems to be off limits at this time according to our local mets and the models - not our monkey, not our circus.

[TimeZone]

So, I know i'm talking very long term but assuming this does recurve is there any chance this could potentially be a threat to the Maritimes/Atlantic Canada down way down the road? Or would it likely curve away/fall apart by the time it made it this far North?

[WilmingtonSandbar]

So, I know i'm talking very long term but assuming this does recurve is there any chance this could potentially be a threat to the Maritimes/Atlantic Canada down way down the road? Or would it likely curve away/fall apart by the time it made it this far North?

I do believe the models that are talking about recurve are talking a sharp recurve. Maybe, so sharp that it circles back.

[toad strangler]

WOW the end of the cone is wider than I thought it would be …. and I thought it would be wide. NHC keeps Hurricane OUT OF THE EQUATION until the last plot point yet again.

[tolakram]

The cone is a pre-set width each year, based on past performance. It does not vary with storm.


GFS 0z starts at 11:30PM EDT