ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[SouthFLTropics]

WOW the end of the cone is wider than I thought it would be …. and I thought it would be wide. NHC keeps Hurricane OUT OF THE EQUATION until the last plot point yet again.

The cone is always the same width based on the margin of error in the NHC forecast.

[gatorcane]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM run is out and this is the 84 hour 500MB chart. Seems to show more ridging to the north (ridge axis over North Florida out east) than the GFS model. You would think this system would continue heading WNW:

[toad strangler]

WOW the end of the cone is wider than I thought it would be …. and I thought it would be wide. NHC keeps Hurricane OUT OF THE EQUATION until the last plot point yet again.

The cone is always the same width based on the margin of error in the NHC forecast.

DID NOT KNOW THAT.

Thanks.

[Jevo]

WOW the end of the cone is wider than I thought it would be …. and I thought it would be wide. NHC keeps Hurricane OUT OF THE EQUATION until the last plot point yet again.

The cone is always the same width based on the margin of error in the NHC forecast.

DID NOT KNOW THAT.

Thanks.

There are exceptions..

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM run is out and this is the 84 hour 500MB chart. Seems to show more ridging to the north (ridge axis over North Florida out east) than the GFS model. You would think this system would continue heading WNW:

If I recall the NAM is real lousy at tropical systems but decent about picking up troughs and ridges. It doesn't go out past 84 hours does it? That image would sure make me believe it would continue a WNW track.

With that said, it was awful troughy (is that a word) on the Florida peninsula today with severe thunderstorms moving from South to North.

[deltadog03]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM run is out and this is the 84 hour 500MB chart. Seems to show more ridging to the north (ridge axis over North Florida out east) than the GFS model. You would think this system would continue heading WNW:

NAM is well...you know...however, That would be an IDEAL upper setup for rapid intensification. That would head to FL, yes.

[Jevo]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM run is out and this is the 84 hour 500MB chart. Seems to show more ridging to the north (ridge axis over North Florida out east) than the GFS model. You would think this system would continue heading WNW:

NAM is certainly not a tropical model, but is great for synoptical patterns. While I would not look at storm location, you certainly are onto something in regards to the ridging.

Edit: Ugh I need to update my avatar... It's 11 years and I've lost 150lbs.. ok back to Erika

[gatorcane]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM run is out and this is the 84 hour 500MB chart. Seems to show more ridging to the north (ridge axis over North Florida out east) than the GFS model. You would think this system would continue heading WNW:

http://i.imgur.com/Ry5QQJi.png

If I recall the NAM is real lousy at tropical systems but decent about picking up troughs and ridges. It doesn't go out past 84 hours does it? That image would sure make me believe it would continue a WNW track.

Actually it does quite well with forecasting synoptic setups and if you follow it, has done well with some of the systems this season. I just wonder if the GFS may go back to showing a bit more of a ridge? I mean all it takes is a 50-100 mile shift west and SE Florida is back in the path of the GFS. Big model runs tonight from both the GFS and ECMWF...do they hold strong, shift east, or shift some back west? Perhaps the NAM run is a hint of what the GFS may do in 15 minutes?

[bjackrian]

There are exceptions..

Still a pre set width at each forecast point. Just sometimes harder to smooth the circles than others!

[SouthFLTropics]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM run is out and this is the 84 hour 500MB chart. Seems to show more ridging to the north (ridge axis over North Florida out east) than the GFS model. You would think this system would continue heading WNW:

http://i.imgur.com/Ry5QQJi.png

If I recall the NAM is real lousy at tropical systems but decent about picking up troughs and ridges. It doesn't go out past 84 hours does it? That image would sure make me believe it would continue a WNW track.

Actually it does quite well with forecasting synoptic setups and if you follow it, has done well with some of the systems this season. I just wonder if the GFS may go back to showing a bit more of a ridge? I mean all it takes is a 50-100 mile shift west and SE Florida is back in the path of the GFS. Big model runs tonight from both the GFS and ECMWF...do they hold strong, shift east, or shift some back west? Perhaps the NAM run is a hint of what the GFS may do in 15 minutes?

I'm looking forward to the GFS run as well as the Euro. Not sure my eyes will let me stay awake for all of it.

[tgenius]

Gatorcane do you know about how far apart the different hour runs are for the GFS? In other words how long does it take to generate from 24 to 48 for example?

[SeGaBob]

Is there any chance more ridging will show up in the models? I'm not leaning towards it but I'd like to know what others think. Most of the time when models shift east it seems to be a done deal. (not always but mostly)



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[stormlover2013]

Look around 50-80 hours on the trough and see how far south it digs!!! Last night it wasn't to bad but today it dug always the to the gom!! The trough is the big player here

[SouthFLTropics]

I've seen the models show east and come back west many times. Frances is a good example and Ike is a huge example.

[TheStormExpert]

I've seen the models show east and come back west many times. Frances is a good example and Ike is a huge example.

But since those storms track guidance has seem to become better. It's intensity guidance that really struggles.

[Bocadude85]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM run is out and this is the 84 hour 500MB chart. Seems to show more ridging to the north (ridge axis over North Florida out east) than the GFS model. You would think this system would continue heading WNW:

NAM is certainly not a tropical model, but is great for synoptical patterns. While I would not look at storm location, you certainly are onto something in regards to the ridging.

Edit: Ugh I need to update my avatar... It's 11 years and I've lost 150lbs.. ok back to Erika

Someone posted the 12z Nam earlier, anyways the 0z has Erika a little further southwest then the 12z showed. I have noticed with past storms that when the nam shifts a little south or west so does the GFS. Maybe will not happen this time.,,but I guess we will know soon enough.

[TimeZone]

So, I know i'm talking very long term but assuming this does recurve is there any chance this could potentially be a threat to the Maritimes/Atlantic Canada down way down the road? Or would it likely curve away/fall apart by the time it made it this far North?

I do believe the models that are talking about recurve are talking a sharp recurve. Maybe, so sharp that it circles back.

Really? I thought that was just the GFS. So I guess this isn't much of a threat to Canada in the long range at all.

[tolakram]

We don't have anything that goes out that far yet. The upper air pattern is tricky and the models keep Erika around for 10 days, sono real clue what will happen after that yet.

[tgenius]

We don't have anything that goes out that far yet. The upper air pattern is tricky and the models keep Erika around for 10 days, sono real clue what will happen after that yet.

Mark do you know how quick the GFS run will complete through? Curious how long between the different time frames does it take in real time to generate.

[ericinmia]

FWIW, the 00Z NAM run is out and this is the 84 hour 500MB chart. Seems to show more ridging to the north (ridge axis over North Florida out east) than the GFS model. You would think this system would continue heading WNW:


NAM is certainly not a tropical model, but is great for synoptical patterns. While I would not look at storm location, you certainly are onto something in regards to the ridging.

Edit: Ugh I need to update my avatar... It's 11 years and I've lost 150lbs.. ok back to Erika

Someone posted the 12z Nam earlier, anyways the 0z has Erika a little further southwest then the 12z showed. I have noticed with past storms that when the nam shifts a little south or west so does the GFS. Maybe will not happen this time.,,but I guess we will know soon enough.

I was going to say the same thing....
There has been many a Storm, where the NAM showed a synoptic setup/change, which then shown through in future GFS runs.