ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[CourierPR]

Looking at the continued west track of Erika, I think we may be in for a roller coaster ride with the models.

[SouthFLTropics]

I hope the GFS initial location is good..,I have a gut feeling that more interaction with the big islands is going to occur and that could have big implications down the road.

[tolakram]

We don't have anything that goes out that far yet. The upper air pattern is tricky and the models keep Erika around for 10 days, sono real clue what will happen after that yet.

Mark do you know how quick the GFS run will complete through? Curious how long between the different time frames does it take in real time to generate.

According to Weatherbell: NCEP GFS: (4x daily) - 11:22-12:50 AM/PM | 5:22-6:50 AM/PM

[SouthFLTropics]

Initial location looks good and ridge is stout at 0 hour.

[tolakram]

0Z GFS Initialized.

[tolakram]

[USTropics]

We don't have anything that goes out that far yet. The upper air pattern is tricky and the models keep Erika around for 10 days, sono real clue what will happen after that yet.

Mark do you know how quick the GFS run will complete through? Curious how long between the different time frames does it take in real time to generate.

According to Weatherbell: NCEP GFS: (4x daily) - 11:22-12:50 AM/PM | 5:22-6:50 AM/PM

There's a total of 52 images outputted. That would mean roughly every 1 1/2 - 2 minutes a new image would appear, although generally there's a lapse and then a quick succession of 2-4 images in a short time period.

[SouthFLTropics]

Any thoughts so far on the 00z...any differences anyone sees from 18z?

[Evil Jeremy]

Any thoughts so far on the 00z...any differences anyone sees from 18z?

It's only out 6 hours so far.

[tolakram]

[tolakram]

So far nearly identical to last run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Any thoughts so far on the 00z...any differences anyone sees from 18z?

It's only out 6 hours so far.

Tropicaltidbits has part of it out to 12 hours. I'm looking more at the evolving trough and ridge pattern more than anything

[Hurricaneman]

So far nearly identical to last run.

maybe a bit closer to Puerto Rico but not much

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[LarryWx]

The 0Z GFS looks ever so slightly ESE of the 18Z run for the same time to this point.

[Bocadude85]

The 0Z GFS looks ever so slightly ESE of the 18Z run for the same time to this point.

Yea just a hair south.

[tolakram]

[BobHarlem]

So far nearly identical to the last run, but weaker.

[NDG]

Looking at the 0z GFS come in so far it show ridging to the north a little stronger so I would not b surprised if it goes a little to west cliser to the 12z run but I migh be wrong.

[ericinmia]

Comparison of 00z last night vs. 00z tonight.... @ 30hrs out...

Slightly slower and more defined, LLC and Cloud Structure

Last night:


Tonight:

[tolakram]