ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[psyclone]

After reading the latest discussion, I'm sticking with my earlier comment - dissipation is a possibility, as the other NHC forecasters mentioned in the past couple of days...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Even if it does open up the potential for a reformation exists. It's late August and stuff happens and can happen fast. I remind people that a slow season does not = no season. as of now Erika amounts to primarily a heavy rain threat and that would be the case whether it's designated as a disturbance or a depression or a low end storm...the sensible weather isn't much different in either of those scenarios.

Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Take Invest 94L heading into the FL Big Bend region earlier this month as a good example as to why it doesn't have to be an organized Tropical Cyclone to cause problems.

95L and heavy rains in the days preceding that disturbance delivered more than 2' to my rooftop in about 10 days.. we still have river flooding going on weeks later so I really understand and validate your point.

[Sanibel]

IMO the original surface feature is still there and moving along on yesterday's track.




The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Aric Dunn]

IMO the original surface feature is still there and moving along on yesterday's track.


but that vort is not on the track recon even reporting wsw motion. there is evidence of multiple vorts come from recon. the southern quad and se are no looking healthy at all.



The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[Hyperstorm]

I think the NHC is still following a NW movement because none of the reliable models are showing this storm striking the Dominican Republic directly. Also, the storm needs to be initialized farther south in the models and that hasn't happened yet. I think once the lower latitude center is initialized on the 12z GFS and 12 EURO, we will probably see a track directly impacting the Dominican Republic and that could change the whole game.

A weak system (tropical depression or wave) is likely to survive movement over landmasses better than one with a well defined circulation.

This is not an official forecast. Please follow NHC advisories for official information.

[AutoPenalti]

NHC seems to be having a hard time with the track, especially with no vertical stacking.

[ROCK]

that sure looks like her LLC heading straight for PR / DR....badly decoupled....

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html

[drezee]

Hey Storm2K....we missed one!!! Erika's Eddy/Center just passed over a Buoy'!! 1006.3 pressure

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.p ... t=E&tz=EST

[Dean4Storms]

The GOM front is stationary but is definitely a hard stop for any cyclones headed towards it.

Looking @500mb ECM forecast at 120 hours the Gulf looks pretty calm mid level wind wise and very weak SW winds at 300mb.

[Sanibel]

The islands must have disturbed the weak center and scattered many satellite vortices on many levels.



The only thing to do is see how it resolves. NHC feels it is going to correct and seek that NW direction north of the islands.

[ConvergenceZone]

After reading the latest discussion, I'm sticking with my earlier comment - dissipation is a possibility, as the other NHC forecasters mentioned in the past couple of days...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yea, they are realizing that any shift west is going to put this over more land, really increasing the chance of dissipation. Even if that does happen, I would think that Florida may get ALOT of rain from this....

[Gustywind]

I have been very disappointed by much of the discussion of Erika in the past few days ONLY focusing on Florida and the USA. I have asked for some analysis of what you all might think could be the effects of Erika on the islands..I didn't get much response.
I realize there are only a handful of islanders here.
But, while, you all are discussing possible impacts 0n Florida, here is what is happening in Dominica.
They are getting hit hard. Lots of flooding and damage

http://pbs.twimg.com/media/CNahWNHWsAAoovW.jpg

Well said!

Florida is 5 days away and we have this thing on top of us here and no useful information about local conditions. All Florida! C'mon guys...Focus!

Look at that video sharing how worrying, what a nightmare in Dominica

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=dO0fm2OsI8c

[rolltide]

I'll start believing a wnw or nw direction when Erika actually moves that way. As for now it's moving due west. Question is how long will the due west motion continue.


This is not an official forecast. Please follow NHC advisories for official information.

[Portastorm]

After reading the latest discussion, I'm sticking with my earlier comment - dissipation is a possibility, as the other NHC forecasters mentioned in the past couple of days...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

Yea, they are realizing that any shift west is going to put this over more land, really increasing the chance of dissipation. Even if that does happen, I would think that Florida may get ALOT of rain from this....

Weak systems do not dissipate over land nearly as rapid as more developed systems do.

[Evil Jeremy]

Breaking News: Erika driving enthusiasts crazy. More on this at 5. And 11. And every other six hours.


Everyone calm down and take a deep breath... We have a long weekend ahead, no need for headaches now.

The NHC stated a west motion now to account for the center readjustment. Erika is still moving with a northward component. Having said that, I think it misses the next forecast point to the south.

Hispaniola will effect Erika more if it gets her act together. The mountains can't disrupt a circulation if there is barely one to disrupt.

We need to keep an eye on the conditions in the Bahamas. If shear is low, with those hot SSTs, Erika can develop there, even if she is dead on arrival.

Time for the GFS.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[seatrump]

Hey guys.
Long time board member here but new to this branch of the forums. Spent six years in Hong Kong and Shanghai so usually watched the WPAC forums.

Now I live in the Turks and Caicos and this is my first hurricane season. I have spent the morning boarding up the guest house just in case (it can stay boarded up for the rest of the hurricane season). With the main house we have electric shutters which all work so we can delay preparations until we know more.

Right now looks like the main effect may be lots of rain which is badly needed here. I have lived here since mid April and it has rained twice, both times quick showers.... My cisterns need water. That said, I live on one of the highest points of the island, it's windy up here even when calm down on the beaches. We are on the south shore so with the current track going to the south it's likely the winds might be a bit stronger.

I'll keep you guys updated and can post some videos/photos when/if this thing gets going. Right now it's a typical day, hot and sunny but with a brisk breeze from the east.

[SunnyThoughts]

From over in the recon thread. Hail in a TS? wow

URNT11 KNHC 271505
97779 15044 50148 62258 30500 26010 10109 /3170
RMK AF303 0605A ERIKA OB 14
SWS = 39 KTS
INBOUND SE QUAD
HAIL PRESENT WITHIN TS
SFC WND NOT VISIBLE DUE TO UNDERCAST

[txwatcher91]

Recon found hail in SE quad of the storm and looks like maybe a second center reforming with the naked one dissipating. Hard to tell yet.

[Portastorm]

Hey guys.
Long time board member here but new to this branch of the forums. Spent six years in Hong Kong and Shanghai so usually watched the WPAC forums.

Now I live in the Turks and Caicos and this is my first hurricane season. I have spent the morning boarding up the guest house just in case (it can stay boarded up for the rest of the hurricane season). With the main house we have electric shutters which all work so we can delay preparations until we know more.

Right now looks like the main effect may be lots of rain which is badly needed here. I have lived here since mid April and it has rained twice, both times quick showers.... My cisterns need water. That said, I live on one of the highest points of the island, it's windy up here even when calm down on the beaches. We are on the south shore so with the current track going to the south it's likely the winds might be a bit stronger.

I'll keep you guys updated and can post some videos/photos when/if this thing gets going. Right now it's a typical day, hot and sunny but with a brisk breeze from the east.

Thanks for your post and keeping us aware of what's going on in your part of the world! Be safe and best of luck in weathering Erika.

[shortwave]

Just an opinion and observation, if you look at visible sat and track the overall broad circulation motion and not the smaller vorticy it does appear close to the current forecast track. If it was to lose more convection I think this would be more apparent. The large circulation envelope that this system has is definitely going to be in its favor while traversing close to or over PR and DR.

[Aric Dunn]

recon pass not very impressive with structure in the SE quad. something is down in that area not very well defined but has been enough to cause some changes to the motion of the center. only time will tell. shear is still big player here with this maintaining convection near the center. exposed like this does not bode will if that circ is to be dominant.