ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[LarryWx]

Headed to landfall near Charleston per 0Z GFS.

[ericinmia]

120 hrs closer up....

Not much rain or wind would be over land with this size/track/model/run.

[SouthFLTropics]

Erika likes Disney @ 114 hrs

Looks more like Vero Beach vicinity on that run.

Disney has a resort in Vero Beach...LOL

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Even with that Ridge... she rides the coast north.... @ 108 hrs

Your image shows ridging at the surface not the mid levels, you need to look at the 500mb maps.

NDG,

Please explain if you don't mind the difference and how one effects the storm verses the other.

[MWatkins]

Did the Global Hawk data get into the 0Z runs? It's possible the additional data is impacting the GFS track.

MW

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great to see you again Matt, hope all is well.

[NDG]

You have to like how similar the 12z Euro and 0z GFS look, we may have something to go by.

[LarryWx]

Per the 0Z GFS, this could be a huge rainfall related flooding event for much of the SC coastal sections at least!

[SouthFLTropics]

Hour 126 looks like it's headed for a rare Jax or Georgia coast landfall!!!

[Hurricaneman]

Great to see you again Matt, hope all is well.

His name is Mike but looking at this run of the GFS is painfully close to making landfall on the Florida east coast and does also need to be watched up in the Carolinas too

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Evil Jeremy]

You have to like how similar the 12z Euro and 0z GFS look, we may have something to go by.

Lets wait and see though if the 00z ECMWF stays the course. Hopefully it does. If it flops another direction (it hasn't shown much consistency past few runs) more headaches abound...

[Stormcenter]

Still have serious doubts this is how it will all eventually play out. IMO

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Great to see you again Matt, hope all is well.

His name is Mike but looking at this run of the GFS is painfully close to making landfall on the Florida east coast and does also need to be watched up in the Carolinas too

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

Thank u, had not seen him on or chatted for a while thanks again for the correction.

[NDG]

Even with that Ridge... she rides the coast north.... @ 108 hrs

Your image shows ridging at the surface not the mid levels, you need to look at the 500mb maps.

NDG,

Please explain if you don't mind the difference and how one effects the storm verses the other.

A quick answer is this: Mid level ridges at 500mb (mid levels) is what block tropical systems from moving into their direction not at the surface.

[northjaxpro]

Hour 126 looks like it's headed for a rare Jax or Georgia coast landfall!!!

Well, 0Z GFS is doing a '79 David replay with the track of Erika riding up slowly the peninsula Florida East Coast.

[Kingarabian]

LOW RES 00Z GFS:

[blp]

I see no escape on this run.

[NDG]

Still have serious doubts this is how it will all eventually play out. IMO

So what are your thoughts?

[USTropics]

Hour 126 looks like it's headed for a rare Jax or Georgia coast landfall!!!

It stayed off the coast. Carolinas are in play though:

[Hammy]

Is tropicaltidbits loading extremely slow/not at all for anyone else?