ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[Hurricaneman]

I see no escape on this run.

I see an escape but Wilmington, NC is in the way

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Thank you NDG.

[northjaxpro]

GFS slowly intensifies Erika drifting along the coast.

[BobHarlem]

Charleston

[Miami Storm Tracker]

So if this evening Euro run shows any change of a course to the west, does the NHC alter the cone west? Or wait another run to see if it is a trend.

[NDG]

A SC landfall on this run.

[JtSmarts]

Erika can stay away from us, no Hugo repeats please.

[northjaxpro]

Also, that "escape" is so narrow though Hurricaneman on the 0ZGFS @ 126 hr that the cyclone may miss it. Erika could easily stall out within 100 miles off the NE Florida, SE GA coast looking at this run.

[Bocadude85]

So if this evening Euro run shows any change of a course to the west, does the NHC alter the cone west? Or wait another run to see if it is a trend.

Well the Euro couldn't get any closer to the coast without a landfall if it's similar to the 12z run. I'd say the current NHC track is decent unless the Euro shifts west or further east.

[SouthFLTropics]

Hugo...episode 2

[tolakram]

TT really slow but this map updated.

[ericinmia]

Even with that Ridge... she rides the coast north.... @ 108 hrs

Your image shows ridging at the surface not the mid levels, you need to look at the 500mb maps.

I am aware of that, but if you look at these two maps, which is easier to read....

Meteorologists use a wide range of information and techniques to formulate weather forecasts. The MSLP analysis does not and cannot show all of these factors. It is a fairly simple representation of past and probable future locations of surface weather systems (highs, lows, fronts, etc.). Nevertheless it provides a useful guide to the weather.

[USTropics]

SC hit:



What a hard system to forecast. I don't envy the NHC at all with this one. The NHC is pretty close to the ECMWF/GFS though currently through 5 days (perhaps 50-100 miles east of the respective models last 2 runs).

[LarryWx]

Erika producing ~10" of rainfall for Charleston and nearby areas on the 0Z GFS due to pretty slow movement! If that occurs, the rainfall related flooding could easily be the worst impact from it if it doesn't get too strong.

[Hurricaneman]

Also, that "escape" is so narrow though Hurricaneman on the 0ZGFS @ 126 hr that the cyclone may miss it. Erika could easily stall out within 100 miles off the NE Florida, SE GA coast looking at this run.

or even possibly even move SW if the trough completely leaves and the ridge rebuilds similar to what Joe Bastardi says. Boy this is a headache to forecast

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products

[blp]

Landfall S. Carolina 156hrs.

[deltadog03]

GFS looks west from 18z and a little right of 12z

[Evil Jeremy]

Boy this is a headache to forecast

You can tell which storms are giving people headaches by the page count of the models thread compared to the main discussion thread. Erika's model thread is outpacing the main discussion by 15ish pages lol.

[SouthFLTropics]

00z HWRF is running...so far looks to be SW of the previous run.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Landfall S. Carolina 156hrs.

Evening Brian.