ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models
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SouthFloridawx
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Miami Storm Tracker
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
ericinmia wrote:Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Not that I follow the CMC much but by chance can you post a map of how close to S. FLA it gets.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_17.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=248
Great thanks so much is that a Cat 1 at that position?
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Not a Hugo style hit as that would have come from a more se'ly direction. Intensity though? On that track you could see 2/3. Also for the record, surface and upper highs (as well as mid level highs) can and do block systems in various conditions and circumstances. So it's more complicated than just attributing that to the mid levels.
Interesting GFS run. I'm not sold on any landfalls nor any solutions yet. All I know is the current trough dug deeper than they usually do in August. SW Atlantic should be primed.
Interesting GFS run. I'm not sold on any landfalls nor any solutions yet. All I know is the current trough dug deeper than they usually do in August. SW Atlantic should be primed.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:ericinmia wrote:Miami Storm Tracker wrote:Not that I follow the CMC much but by chance can you post a map of how close to S. FLA it gets.
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... eus_17.png
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=248
Great thanks so much is that a Cat 1 at that position?
Just a strong TS based on the graphic. Most likely 40-50mph winds, maybe 60mph in a tiny pocket.
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Miami Storm Tracker
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
Got you,
But then again guessing how strong is a little tuff this far out.
But then again guessing how strong is a little tuff this far out.
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WeatherEmperor
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HurricaneFrances04
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
SouthFloridawx wrote:What's causing the weakness in the ridge?
Well over Texas is a cut off low that is not allowing the ridge to expand west so the storm is just rounding the periphery the ridge. No majic trough this time. The deeper system will jist round the periphery sooner in my opinion.
Last edited by blp on Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:55 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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Bocadude85
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:UKMET shifted west too. Closer to the SE US.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... est&hh=096
That is a HUGE shift west. At least 200 miles further west.
Last edited by Bocadude85 on Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Miami Storm Tracker
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:UKMET shifted west too. Closer to the SE US.
http://meteocentre.com/models/explorate ... est&hh=096
Yeah but if you continue the run it heads north still a big shift though.
Last edited by blp on Wed Aug 26, 2015 11:59 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Re:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:What did the HWRF run end up with.
I keep hitting refresh, but it hasn't progressed yet....
In a minute i'll pull it up from another source. I was trying to keep continuity. Sorry!
Stuck at 18 hrs still:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=269
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Miami Storm Tracker
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Re: Re:
ericinmia wrote:Miami Storm Tracker wrote:What did the HWRF run end up with.
I keep hitting refresh, but it hasn't progressed yet....
In a minute i'll pull it up from another source. I was trying to keep continuity. Sorry!
Great NP thank u.
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Evil Jeremy
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Re:
Miami Storm Tracker wrote:What did the HWRF run end up with.
It's stuck at 18 hours.
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Frances 04 / Jeanne 04 / Katrina 05 / Wilma 05 / Fay 08 / Debby 12 / Andrea 13 / Colin 16 / Hermine 16 / Matthew 16 / Irma 17
Re: Re:
ericinmia wrote:Miami Storm Tracker wrote:What did the HWRF run end up with.
I keep hitting refresh, but it hasn't progressed yet....
In a minute i'll pull it up from another source. I was trying to keep continuity. Sorry!
Stuck at 18 hrs still:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=269
The site won't even load for me at all, anyone else having trouble?
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SouthFLTropics
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Re: Re:
Hammy wrote:ericinmia wrote:Miami Storm Tracker wrote:What did the HWRF run end up with.
I keep hitting refresh, but it hasn't progressed yet....
In a minute i'll pull it up from another source. I was trying to keep continuity. Sorry!
Stuck at 18 hrs still:
http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis ... 0&ypos=269
The site won't even load for me at all, anyone else having trouble?
I'm having trouble as well...
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Evil Jeremy
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Re: ATL: ERIKA - Models
HWRF weaker so far...
I think the intensity guidance is coming back to reality tonight.
I think the intensity guidance is coming back to reality tonight.
Last edited by blp on Thu Aug 27, 2015 12:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including storm2k.org For Official Information please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
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