EPAC: PATRICIA - Recon

[Yellow Evan]

Code: Select all

EP, 20, 201510230601,  50, AIRC,         CI,  , 1647N, 10542W,      , 2, 182, 2,  890, 1,     ,    ,     ,     ,     ,     ,     ,  ,  ,  ,  ,  ,    ,    ,  ,  KNHC, NHC,   , 700, 2134, 182, 128,   6, 221, 180, 126,   5,  890,  12,  27,  10,   ,   , CI,    ,  7,   ,    ,  10,  3, MAX FL WIND 180 KT 126 / 5 NM 06:00:30Z CNTR DROPS

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Earlier, second pass, from SE to NW:

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 230650
AF303 0320E PATRICIA HDOB 44 20151023
064100 1634N 10543W 6970 03001 9849 +118 +112 005066 067 062 009 00
064130 1634N 10541W 6963 02992 9856 +119 +119 005067 069 068 009 00
064200 1634N 10540W 6965 02962 9827 +125 +125 008076 077 073 011 00
064230 1633N 10538W 6976 02920 9788 +121 //// 006081 083 080 004 01
064300 1633N 10536W 6965 02891 9711 +125 +121 005093 098 091 004 00
064330 1633N 10534W 6965 02829 9651 +113 //// 004112 119 106 009 01
064400 1633N 10533W 6972 02718 9576 +114 +114 003139 150 144 027 03
064430 1633N 10531W 6942 02582 9417 +121 //// 359161 166 175 056 05
064500 1633N 10530W 6996 02289 //// +140 //// 356096 165 /// /// 05
064530 1633N 10528W 6980 02192 8931 +218 +111 352029 060 057 007 00
064600 1633N 10526W 6991 02133 8852 +276 +073 151006 020 046 003 00
064630 1634N 10524W 7025 02094 8879 +249 +112 150076 109 042 001 03
064700 1636N 10523W 7043 02266 9206 +134 //// 145173 192 /// /// 05
064730 1637N 10522W 7081 02467 //// +106 //// 139164 173 165 006 05
064800 1638N 10521W 6990 02712 //// +112 //// 136142 155 136 003 05
064830 1639N 10520W 6958 02834 9651 +119 +117 139122 134 108 000 05
064900 1640N 10519W 6939 02911 9726 +123 //// 141109 120 101 001 01
064930 1641N 10518W 6963 02922 9790 +116 //// 141101 104 085 034 01
065000 1642N 10517W 6967 02946 9822 +115 +115 143095 098 083 016 00
065030 1643N 10515W 6962 02979 9841 +117 +117 144086 090 078 010 00
$$
;

[Kingarabian]

885mb and 175kts sfmr

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 173 knots (199.1 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 192 knots (220.9 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s Avg.) Sfc. Wind: 106 knots (122.0 mph) ... Suspect value: 175 knots (201.4 mph) ... two values missing
Extrapolated Sfc. Pressure: 885.2 mb (~ 26.14 inHg)

[Yellow Evan]

And 192 knot flight....

I don't know what to do anymore.....

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Link to HDOB:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... .2-173-106

[Yellow Evan]

Pressure could outlast Wilma but extraop pressure seem to be too bullish.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Just to illustrate how insanely powerful this storm is, though with a small wind field of those highest winds:

6:45:00Z, as it is just hitting the eye:

Flight Level Wind (30 sec. Avg.): 96 knots (110.5 mph)
Peak (10 sec. Avg.) Flight Level Wind: 165 knots (189.9 mph)

In the same 30 second period!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Chris_in_Tampa]

885mb, 41 knots of surface wind

UZPN13 KNHC 230659
XXAA 73077 99166 71054 04765 99885 27008 13541 00/// ///// /////
92/// ///// ///// 85361 26039 15035 70095 27473 09001 88999 77999
31313 09608 80645
61616 AF303 0320E PATRICIA OB 20
62626 CENTER MBL WND 15036 AEV 07775 DLM WND 15524 885698 WL150 1
4040 084 REL 1655N10544W 064552 SPG 1658N10544W 064923 =
XXBB 73078 99166 71054 04765 00885 27008 11861 25420 22850 26039
33825 28259 44824 28259 55802 29262 66793 29062 77758 31872 88710
30075 99698 27069
21212 00885 13541 11850 15035 22770 17520 33727 16010 44718 16513
55709 15018 66698 00503
31313 09608 80645
61616 AF303 0320E PATRICIA OB 20
62626 CENTER MBL WND 15036 AEV 07775 DLM WND 15524 885698 WL150 1
4040 084 REL 1655N10544W 064552 SPG 1658N10544W 064923 =
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Link to sonde:
http://hurricanecity.com/recon/recon.cg ... -885-41-41

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 230700
AF303 0320E PATRICIA HDOB 45 20151023
065100 1644N 10514W 6969 02990 9869 +110 +110 145086 088 075 008 00
065130 1646N 10513W 6960 03019 9899 +116 +116 148079 084 069 017 00
065200 1647N 10511W 6967 03024 9914 +108 +108 146078 079 066 012 00
065230 1648N 10510W 6961 03044 9924 +111 +111 148077 079 064 010 00
065300 1650N 10509W 6970 03044 9941 +111 +111 143073 077 064 007 03
065330 1651N 10507W 6974 03044 9961 +107 +107 141072 075 059 012 00
065400 1652N 10506W 6961 03068 9963 +106 +106 140066 070 057 010 00
065430 1653N 10505W 6970 03065 9965 +108 +108 140067 068 055 022 00
065500 1654N 10503W 6973 03065 9982 +109 +109 143064 073 052 020 03
065530 1656N 10502W 6964 03083 9989 +102 +102 142059 061 048 009 03
065600 1657N 10501W 6970 03076 9974 +099 +099 139061 062 048 007 00
065630 1658N 10500W 6966 03087 9992 +099 +099 141057 061 049 007 00
065700 1659N 10458W 6969 03086 9995 +098 //// 139056 057 047 008 01
065730 1701N 10457W 6966 03093 //// +095 //// 139059 059 046 004 01
065800 1702N 10456W 6969 03093 9977 +096 +092 140058 059 044 002
065830 1703N 10454W 6965 03100 //// +091 //// 141058 059 043 003 01
065900 1705N 10453W 6967 03102 9989 +095 +093 143057 058 044 002 01
065930 1706N 10452W 6968 03104 //// +095 //// 143058 059 044 003 01
070000 1707N 10450W 6967 03106 9989 +098 +092 144059 059 044 003 01
070030 1708N 10449W 6967 03109 9992 +098 +091 144056 058 043 001 00
$$
;

It's been a good recon mission.

[Yellow Evan]

Oh my f***ing god.....

Sorry for cussing, but that's the only way to describe this hurricane.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

URPN12 KNHC 230703
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE EP202015
A. 23/06:46:00Z
B. 16 deg 33 min N
105 deg 26 min W
C. 700 mb 2113 m
D. 175 kt
E. 264 deg 5 nm
F. 358 deg 166 kt
G. 264 deg 5 nm
H. 885 mb
I. 12 C / 3073 m
J. 29 C / 3026 m
K. 8 C / NA
L. CLOSED
M. C7
N. 12345 / 7
O. 0.02 / 0.5 nm
P. AF303 0320E PATRICIA OB 19
MAX OUTBOUND AND MAX FL WIND 192 KT 053 / 3 NM 06:47:10Z
CNTR DROPSONDE SFC WIND 135 / 41 KT
;

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URPN12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 23rd day of the month at 7:03Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF97-5303
Storm Number & Year: 20 in 2015
Storm Name: Patricia (flight in the Northeast Pacific basin)
Mission Number: 3
Observation Number: 19
A. Time of Center Fix: 23rd day of the month at 6:46:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 16°33'N 105°26'W (16.55N 105.4333W)
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,113m (6,932ft) at 700mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 175kts (~ 201.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the W (264°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 358° at 166kts (From the N at ~ 191.0mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 5 nautical miles (6 statute miles) to the W (264°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 885mb (26.14 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 12°C (54°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,073m (10,082ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 29°C (84°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,026m (9,928ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 8°C (46°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Closed
M. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 7 nautical miles
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 700mb
O. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 0.5 nautical miles

Remarks Section:
Maximum Outbound and Flight Level Wind: 192kts (~ 220.9mph) which was observed 3 nautical miles to the NE (53°) from the flight level center at 6:47:10Z
Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 135° at 41kts (From the SE at 47mph)

[Chris_in_Tampa]

[Kingarabian]

000
URPN15 KNHC 230710
AF303 0320E PATRICIA HDOB 46 20151023
070100 1710N 10448W 6966 03114 9995 +097 +090 145057 057 040 002 00
070130 1711N 10446W 6969 03113 0006 +101 +098 142054 056 039 001 00
070200 1712N 10445W 6978 03103 0000 +095 //// 148055 056 039 004 01
070230 1714N 10444W 6964 03120 9998 +098 +094 149056 057 042 002 00
070300 1715N 10442W 6967 03119 0004 +095 +093 149056 057 042 000 01
070330 1716N 10441W 6967 03122 0003 +099 +091 147055 056 041 001 00
070400 1717N 10440W 6968 03121 0001 +105 +083 147057 058 039 001 00
070430 1719N 10438W 6963 03127 0005 +102 +084 148059 059 039 001 00
070500 1720N 10437W 6970 03120 0008 +099 +086 148057 059 038 001 00
070530 1721N 10436W 6966 03127 0013 +096 +087 147055 057 038 002 00
070600 1723N 10434W 6969 03125 0016 +095 +093 148054 055 038 001 01
070630 1724N 10433W 6967 03130 //// +095 //// 148055 056 040 002 01
070700 1725N 10431W 6967 03128 0031 +091 +089 148058 060 043 007 00
070730 1727N 10430W 6976 03124 0061 +098 +098 149062 063 050 022 00
070800 1728N 10429W 6965 03133 0054 +101 +101 149054 064 048 030 00
070830 1729N 10427W 6976 03120 0051 +111 +111 145047 051 056 052 00
070900 1731N 10426W 6972 03126 0050 +109 +109 144052 054 048 050 03
070930 1732N 10425W 6963 03142 0057 +099 +099 145055 056 043 018 03
071000 1733N 10423W 6969 03133 0055 +099 +099 147057 058 041 009 00
071030 1734N 10422W 6966 03136 //// +093 //// 148057 059 041 003 01
$$
;

[Cyclenall]

Oh my f***ing god.....

Sorry for cussing, but that's the only way to describe this hurricane.

I'm right there with you, my heart was beating fast as I was getting ready to look at the new recon HDOBS just now, also hands shaking a little!!!!!!! I'm right back to Wilma from 2005 again, those recon passes are going to be legendary and then some.

[Chris_in_Tampa]