ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[tropicwatch]

I think this might be why we are seeing a better looking system.

[HurriGuy]

.

[bahamaswx]

Hey its still trying to build convection. I doubt we see anything reform. That LLC looks pretty healthy.

Agreed. I think 6-10 hours from now she'll look pretty good actually.

What makes you think that? Shear is still going to be an issue by then

Passes the eye test is all. Presentation has been improving for a few hours now.

[jlauderdal]

What are the chances of rapid intensification once it jumps through the hoops and valleys of the Carribean?

ri next to impossible to predict so I will go 8.3%...if it can get away from pr and dr/hisp then it has a decent chance of doing something but lets be real clear that ri is very unlikely in this setup...ri is unlikely in any setup, its rare and thats why you see this board go cra when it happens

hurricane charley went through RI as it approached board member blown away on the SW coast...small storm with very heavy damage, was on sainibel/captiva 2 weeks after buzzsaw charley topped alot of trees and cut part of the island

[tropicwatch]

Storm Relative 1km loop: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/loop.asp?product=1kmsrvis&storm_identifier=AL052015&starting_image=2015AL05_1KMSRVIS_201508271145.GIF

From: http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/

Wow, kind of like, come to daddy

[HurriGuy]

.

[Aric Dunn]

if it can get tucked under that convection and not out run it again. should see some decent improvements and may end up surviving the islands.

[Frank2]

If the southern Caribbean high is the reason, panamatropicwatch, once the system moves NW then it's back to strong shear for a day or so...

[Hammy]

ASCAT pass above is from roughly ~9:30 this morning I believe based on the time stamp below.

[HurriGuy]

ASCAT pass above is from roughly ~9:30 this morning I believe based on the time stamp below.

I am just realizing this. I have no idea what I was thinking. Lol

[gatorcane]

So there are many examples of systems that greatly intensified once in the Bahamas (or getting west of Hispaniola longitude).
There are some examples of systems that do not strengthen either. 1941 and 1888 were el nino years. The hurricane 5 1932 track is kindaof similar to what some models are showing.

http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif
http://weather.unisys.com/hurricane/atl ... /track.gif

Bump, added Ernesto 2006 at the end. It didn't strengthen over the FL straits.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Here is a graphic from JB's twitter feed it shows whats going on



The MLC is under the upper high, but that doesnt help the LLC. If they can stack this can really go to town

[fci]

After forecast discussion said he might strengthen to a possible Cat 2 on his way to SE Fla. School was canceled and we call him "The Leaf Blower".

[Hammy]

Bump, added Ernesto 2006 at the end. It didn't strengthen over the FL straits.

Ernesto shows the difference of having land interaction, as Erika will likely have to deal with: The rest spent days over open water prior, where Ernesto spend half a day over Cuba and had only 24 hours before landfall in Florida.

[gatorcane]

so I agree looks like this system might be trying to ramp up. The shear seems to be decreasing and it has nice symmetric outflow in the upper-levels.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.

[gatorcane]

Bump, added Ernesto 2006 at the end. It didn't strengthen over the FL straits.

Ernesto shows the difference of having land interaction, as Erika will likely have to deal with: The rest spent days over open water prior, where Ernesto spend half a day over Cuba and had only 24 hours before landfall in Florida.

True, I remember that even with that short time between Cuba an the FL Keys, the NHC was actually calling for Ernesto to maybe become a CAT 2 or CAT 3 hurricane. But somehow it did not and we got very lucky here in South Florida, nothing but a little rain and that is about it. Talk about dodging another bullet on that one.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Look familiar? This is Erika 2009

[TheStormExpert]

Bump, added Ernesto 2006 at the end. It didn't strengthen over the FL straits.

Ernesto shows the difference of having land interaction, as Erika will likely have to deal with: The rest spent days over open water prior, where Ernesto spend half a day over Cuba and had only 24 hours before landfall in Florida.

True, I remember that even with that short time between Cuba an the FL Keys, the NHC was actually calling for Ernesto to maybe become a CAT 2 or CAT 3 hurricane. But somehow it did not and we got very lucky here in South Florida, nothing but a little rain and that is about it. Talk about dodging another bullet on that one.

Ernesto rode basically the spine of Cuba up to the FL straights where it had about 90miles or so to get itself fully together again. With Erika that shouldn't be the case at the moment.

[BucMan2]

Does anyone know the size of Ericka?

[TheStormExpert]

Look familiar? This is Erika 2009

http://i.imgur.com/UE7J95i.jpg

They're Twins!