ATL: 90L - ERIKA Remnants - Models

[blp]

HwRF is weaker.

[ericinmia]

HWRF updated some hours, but skipped others...

Slower and slightly further north than last night.
Stronger and further WNW than 18z model run.

63hrs 00z Tonight


63 hrs 00z Yesterday Night

[Bocadude85]

HWRF seems to be a bit faster and a tad further west so far

[Evil Jeremy]

Finally the HWRF progresses, that was starting to tick me off. ECMWF, the main event of the morning, kicks off soon. Every model has moved west this run so far.

[ericinmia]

HWRF seems to be a bit faster and a tad further west so far

Compared to which run? Compared to 00z last night, it is slower.

[chaser1]

Seems like all is in play. NHC must be believing the eastward shift. We will see if their amazing forecasting ability holds up. I can't wait for the 5 pm advisory tomorrow. That will put us within 72 hours of approaching SFL and the accuracy goes up tremendously from there.

Can you imagine the whiplash these forecasters would be feeling, if tonight's EURO were to suddenly drive a 924mb Erika way more westward... say through the Florida Keys? This storm may well be the cause for an increase in early vacations requests over at NHC and many local NWS offices along the way

[northjaxpro]

Evil Jeremy, what is your thoughts? Being here in Jax, we may possibly be seeing some interesting days ahead uh?

[Bocadude85]

HWRF seems to be a bit faster and a tad further west so far

Compared to which run? Compared to 00z last night, it is slower.

No I'm comparing it to the 18z run

[Evil Jeremy]

Evil Jeremy, what is your thoughts? Being here in Jax, we may possibly be seeing some interesting days ahead uh?

I just moved to Jacksonville last week (from Fort Lauderdale). This would certainly be a fascinating start to my time here.

My thoughts? If we get a system up here, it will be mostly light wind and rain. It's likely we will experience some effects, even if its from the system's fringes as it passes us for the Carolina's. It will be some interesting days up ahead.

[northjaxpro]

It would depend how strong Erika could get Jeremy. If she rides up the coast like Hurricane David did in 1979, (David stayed 30-50 miles off the coast after first landfall in Palm Beach his whole trip before landfalling in Savannah) the impacts would be much more signifcant here in NE Florida. Coastal impacts would be HUGE obviously. But, still 4-5 days away at least. EURO coming up!!

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF has started

00z:

[chaser1]

Has the ful-res GFS updated to include landfall intensity yet? The entire tropicaltidbits site has stopped loading pictures for me now.

Hammy, I tried clearing my cache, clicking back on Levi's home page, etc. Having the same issues however that you are. It looks to me that a bunch of images from about 144 to 240 hours just never loaded to his site and perhaps the cause of this problem?? Here's the link to NCEP where I typically go to view the GFS (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/). I did check and all images/forecast hours are properly showing up there.

[Evil Jeremy]

Someone in the chatroom, claiming access to a paid model site, says the HWRF is at 29.6N, 78W at 120 hours. That would put it about 2 degrees South and 1 degree West of the 18z run at the comparable time frame.

[USTropics]

Using the raw .grid2 data with IDV and a few simple overlays for the HWRF (raw data can be found here: ftp://ftp.ncep.noaa.gov/pub/data/nccf/c ... 015082700/)

East of Florida so far at 120 hours:

[Bocadude85]

HWRF is about a 100 miles west or so of the 18z at 93 hours

[blp]

HWRF a full longitude west so far 93 hrs from 18z.

[Evil Jeremy]

ECMWF 24 hours:

[ericinmia]

HWRF a full longitude west so far 93 hrs from 18z.

[chaser1]

Evil Jeremy, what is your thoughts? Being here in Jax, we may possibly be seeing some interesting days ahead uh?

I just moved to Jacksonville last week (from Fort Lauderdale). This would certainly be a fascinating start to my time here.

My thoughts? If we get a system up here, it will be mostly light wind and rain. It's likely we will experience some effects, even if its from the system's fringes as it passes us for the Carolina's. It will be some interesting days up ahead.

Having also lived down in the Miami area, I was very surprised to see the much greater tide fluctuation that the Jacksonville area seems to have. I have a couple friends that live there and am always amazed seeing the long docks that so many homes along the rivers need, given how far the tide recedes and rises. Now that I think about it (and providing I had a good elevation vantage point), that would make for a fun chase... and some very wild storm surge action depending on tides of course.

[Hammy]

Has the ful-res GFS updated to include landfall intensity yet? The entire tropicaltidbits site has stopped loading pictures for me now.

Hammy, I tried clearing my cache, clicking back on Levi's home page, etc. Having the same issues however that you are. It looks to me that a bunch of images from about 144 to 240 hours just never loaded to his site and perhaps the cause of this problem?? Here's the link to NCEP where I typically go to view the GFS (http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/). I did check and all images/forecast hours are properly showing up there.

Thank you, this has been driving me nuts and I didn't know if something was glitching with my internet or the site.