ATL: ERIKA - Remnants - Discussion

[ScottNAtlanta]

Look familiar? This is Erika 2009

http://i.imgur.com/UE7J95i.jpg

They're Twins!

Except Erika 2009 went POOF! I dont think Erika 2015 has the same plan, but if I had posted that as the 2015 storm not many would have noticed.

[AutoPenalti]

DMAX in T-minus 7 hours.

[Gustywind]

000
WTNT35 KNHC 271733
TCPAT5

BULLETIN
TROPICAL STORM ERIKA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 11A
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052015
200 PM AST THU AUG 27 2015

...ERIKA SLIGHTLY WEAKER...


SUMMARY OF 200 PM AST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...16.5N 63.8W
ABOUT 160 MI...255 KM W OF GUADELOUPE
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 280 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Antigua and Barbuda has discontinued the Tropical
Storm Warning for Antigua and Barbuda.

The government of the Dominican Republic has extended the Tropical
Storm Watch southward to Isla Saona.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for...
* Anguilla
* Saba and St. Eustatius
* St. Maarten
* St. Martin
* St. Barthelemy
* Montserrat
* St. Kitts and Nevis
* Puerto Rico
* Vieques
* Culebra
* U.S. Virgin Islands
* British Virgin Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for...
* Guadeloupe
* Dominican Republic from the northern border with Haiti eastward
and southward to Isla Saona
* Southeastern Bahamas
* Turks and Caicos Islands

A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are
possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours.

Interests elsewhere in the Dominican Republic should monitor the
progress of Erika.

For storm information specific to your area in the United
States, including possible inland watches and warnings, please
monitor products issued by your local National Weather Service
forecast office. For storm information specific to your area outside
the United States, please monitor products issued by your national
meteorological service.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
At 200 PM AST (1800 UTC), the center of Tropical Storm Erika was
located near latitude 16.5 North, longitude 63.8 West. Erika is
moving toward the west near 16 mph (26 km/h). A turn toward the
west-northwest is forecast later today, and this general motion
should continue for the next 48 hours. On the forecast track, the
center of Erika will move near the Virgin Islands later today,
move near or over Puerto Rico tonight, and move near or over the
Dominican Republic on Friday.

Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 45 mph (75 km/h) with
higher gusts. Little change in strength is forecast during the next
48 hours.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km)
to the east of the center.

The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb (29.71 inches).

[Hammy]

Look familiar? This is Erika 2009

http://i.imgur.com/UE7J95i.jpg

They're Twins!

Except Erika 2009 went POOF! I dont think Erika 2015 has the same plan, but if I had posted that as the 2015 storm not many would have noticed.

2009 Erika was also forecast to move NW and strengthen during an El Nino though

We seem to have a recent history of struggling E storms as well, oddly, and mostly in the Caribbean: two Erikas, Erin 2013 ran into dry air, Emily in 2011 which was facing similar conditions to Erika, and Ernesto in 2012 though further south and it did manage to strengthen at the last minute.

[wxman57]

Does anyone know the size of Erika?

Erika's (no "c") squalls are about 225 miles from north to south. Its circulation is a bit below average in size.

[galaxy401]

Yeah I pointed that out yesterday that this Erika is similar to its last incarnation. 2009's Erika didn't survive though but this one might. This naming list seems to be unlucky due to the El Ninos.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Except Erika 2009 went POOF! I dont think Erika 2015 has the same plan, but if I had posted that as the 2015 storm not many would have noticed.

2009 Erika was also forecast to move NW and strengthen during an El Nino though

We seem to have a recent history of struggling E storms as well, oddly, and mostly in the Caribbean: two Erikas, Erin 2013 ran into dry air, Emily in 2011 which was facing similar conditions to Erika, and Ernesto in 2012 though further south and it did manage to strengthen at the last minute.[/quote]

I think Emily should have been retired in 2005...but thats another subject.

[NDG]

Convection has been building much closer the LLC the last few hours.

[Weatherboy1]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

Interesting, but it does appear that shear has been on the downswing in the vicinity of Erika all day. If you use this website and look at the maps over the past 24 hours, you see that the oranges fade to yellows which have now faded to green/black. Still SOME shear, but less, and that may be why she appears to be trying to stack again. Definitely worth keeping an eye on overnight!

Just the opinion of a semi-educated amateur. Listen to the experts!

[ScottNAtlanta]

Convection has been building much closer the LLC the last few hours.

It has done that the last 3 days. Big blowup in the afternoon that gets sooo close to the LLC and rinse repeat

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 05, 2015082718, , BEST, 0, 166N, 635W, 40, 1006, TS,

[SouthFLTropics]

You gotta love S2K...You know you're a storm enthusiast when you watch a storm so much that you can feel it's dying one hour and two hours later say it's ramping up. LOL

[ScottNAtlanta]

You gotta love S2K...You know you're a storm enthusiast when you watch a storm so much that you can feel it's dying one hour and two hours later say it's ramping up. LOL

Because sometimes it is!

[NDG]

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Interesting, but it does appear that shear has been on the downswing in the vicinity of Erika all day. If you use this website and look at the maps over the past 24 hours, you see that the oranges fade to yellows which have now faded to green/black. Still SOME shear, but less, and that may be why she appears to be trying to stack again. Definitely worth keeping an eye on overnight!

Just the opinion of a semi-educated amateur. Listen to the experts!

You are right, the shear has been trending down all day.

[Hammy]

You gotta love S2K...You know you're a storm enthusiast when you watch a storm so much that you can feel it's dying one hour and two hours later say it's ramping up. LOL

At least now that it's west of 60W and we have more frequent satellite imagery, we can flip back and fourth on it in half the time now

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/windmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8&prod=sht&zoom=&time=

Interesting, but it does appear that shear has been on the downswing in the vicinity of Erika all day. If you use this website and look at the maps over the past 24 hours, you see that the oranges fade to yellows which have now faded to green/black. Still SOME shear, but less, and that may be why she appears to be trying to stack again. Definitely worth keeping an eye on overnight!

Just the opinion of a semi-educated amateur. Listen to the experts!

You are right, the shear has been trending down all day.

This is very likely what's helping the convection build steadily through the day rather than collapse like it has the last few.

For what it's worth, the "LLC" seems to be almost completely tucked back under the convection, with any luck this could push the track further north and east closer to a recurve away fromland later which (if it can manage to survive) should give us some decent ACE.

[galaxy401]

When is the next recon mission? The next one is going to be interesting.

[NDG]

Convection has been building much closer the LLC the last few hours.

It has done that the last 3 days. Big blowup in the afternoon that gets sooo close to the LLC and rinse repeat

Except this time the MLC is closer to the LLC.

[ScottNAtlanta]

3rd time might be the charm. It looks like this burst might actually pull in the LLC since it isnt moving nearly as fast as it has been the last couple of days when this happened.

[tgenius]

So would it be safe to say at this point based on the latest GFS and EURO runs that the track will in fact be shifting west at 5pm? The disco will be quite interesting....

[ScottNAtlanta]

Convection has been building much closer the LLC the last few hours.

It has done that the last 3 days. Big blowup in the afternoon that gets sooo close to the LLC and rinse repeat

Except this time the MLC is closer to the LLC.

It looks like the LLC even paused its forward motion briefly in the RGB loop

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/floater ... -long.html