ATL: JOAQUIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[seahawkjd]

According to the recon thread pressure is 939 and dropping.

[CrazyC83]

00
URNT15 KNHC 011332
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 33 20151001
132300 2308N 07349W 6959 02644 9389 +184 +097 085007 013 022 000 00
132330 2307N 07348W 6966 02636 9382 +193 +083 104002 004 024 000 03
132400 2305N 07348W 6968 02636 9394 +182 +094 223009 013 /// /// 03
132430 2304N 07346W 6959 02653 9385 +196 +099 221022 026 /// /// 03
132500 2303N 07345W 6959 02662 9404 +188 +102 233036 038 039 000 00
132530 2301N 07343W 6967 02666 9431 +171 +124 235049 058 062 004 00
132600 2300N 07342W 6963 02693 9468 +153 +136 229070 075 080 006 00
132630 2259N 07341W 6966 02715 9507 +143 +142 231080 081 091 013 00
132700 2258N 07339W 6952 02757 9570 +138 +138 233094 098 091 014 00
132730 2256N 07338W 6974 02762 9626 +132 +132 230109 113 079 052 03
132800 2255N 07337W 6978 02786 9659 +125 +125 234110 113 079 038 03
132830 2254N 07335W 6954 02841 9699 +115 +115 238104 109 085 018 00
132900 2253N 07334W 6958 02859 9698 +115 //// 232095 097 085 016 01
132930 2252N 07333W 6962 02880 9727 +112 //// 233091 093 079 006 01
133000 2250N 07331W 6958 02902 9737 +114 //// 233089 091 080 006 01
133030 2249N 07330W 6967 02906 9764 +114 +114 236087 088 074 011 00
133100 2248N 07329W 6951 02938 9793 +117 +117 236091 094 072 020 03
133130 2246N 07327W 6950 02954 9803 +121 +121 232082 091 069 017 00
133200 2245N 07326W 6968 02948 9831 +115 +115 226076 079 067 015 03
133230 2244N 07324W 6955 02970 9852 +101 +101 225073 079 064 018 03
$$
;

113 kt FL, 91 kt SFMR. Pressure 938mb.

[AutoPenalti]

At this point, I feel that models are useless, there's just too many variables that have changed in so little time. Intensity forecast off, track forecast off. Something is missing that has yet to be found.

[RL3AO]

The models are still as clear as mud this morning, they have been consistently blowing the short term track. (Which has generally, and even now, has been more south than any of the models, even the euro, forecast) Until I see something other than a wobble in a definitive northerly direction, I don't buy any of them.

--

Not an official forecast.

I'd say the Euro has done very well with the short term track.

[Alyono]

Looks to be losing latitude still and sagging SSW, yet again off the NHC forecast points.

Could he be getting steered by 300MB and higher winds now since he is so deep?

Could he start pumping up the ridge?

Latest loop (RAMMB):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

quite possibly. It may be why Ike made the Gulf. It underwent rapid intensification and was steered southward by northerly outflow from Hanna

This is also east of the model points

again, watch Haiti

[WilmingtonSandbar]

Woke up this morning to find that the models are beginning to trend to the right. If this is a windshield wiper thing, we should find out today with the next few model runs. It appears in these model runs that Joaquin is being affected by the weakness to the east created by 90L, and this is what may keep Joaquin off the coast (hopefully). In looking at Joaquin this morning, I am wondering if he is already feeling the weakness from 90L? Joaquin appears to be making an easterly turn, instead of a westerly one. Almost as if it is being pulled towards 90L. Could this actually be happening? If it is, would this also have the ability to further strengthen 90L? I remember that on Tuesday, a couple models were dealing with a Fujiwara effect between the two systems. Could this set-up actually verify? Also, if the turn to the east of Joaquin is a temporary one and he turns back to the west, would he weaken due to upwelling or is the water shallow enough in the Bahamas that it would not be an issue? A lot of questions, I know, but ones I hope to see answered by members of this board, or "Mother Nature" sometime today/

In re-reading the various statements, it looks like I mis-read about Joaquin moving east. The statement said that it was missing its forecast points to the east, and I accidently took that to mean it was turning in that direction. I guess the coffee hasn't kicked in yet.

[tolakram]

live loop.

Rapid scans, but right now it doesn't appear to be moving much.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[bahamaswx]

Very warm spot just popped up on IR directly on top of Samana Cay. Could see a completely clear eye very soon here.

[CrazyC83]

000
URNT15 KNHC 011342
AF301 0711A JOAQUIN HDOB 34 20151001
133300 2243N 07323W 6955 02976 9840 +100 +100 230074 076 057 009 03
133330 2242N 07322W 6966 02971 9835 +106 +106 232078 079 057 009 00
133400 2240N 07320W 6949 03003 9860 +108 +108 228074 079 055 011 00
133430 2239N 07319W 6967 02976 9870 +107 +107 232071 073 053 020 03
133500 2238N 07318W 6961 02993 9871 +104 +104 233069 071 056 010 00
133530 2238N 07318W 6961 02993 9896 +100 +100 233075 077 053 011 00
133600 2235N 07315W 6963 03007 9901 +100 +100 233072 075 055 012 03
133630 2234N 07314W 6967 03007 9908 +099 +099 232067 069 054 013 03
133700 2233N 07312W 6963 03016 9903 +095 +095 233069 070 061 009 03
133730 2232N 07311W 6969 03016 9901 +096 +096 232072 073 060 009 03
133800 2230N 07310W 6963 03025 9926 +092 +092 231075 077 058 016 03
133830 2229N 07308W 6951 03045 9931 +099 +099 232075 080 057 010 00
133900 2228N 07307W 6953 03047 9933 +101 //// 233071 075 057 010 01
133930 2227N 07306W 6970 03025 9899 +101 +096 235067 068 075 004 03
134000 2225N 07304W 6956 03048 //// +080 //// 238063 064 /// /// 05
134030 2224N 07303W 6971 03039 //// +063 //// 237067 068 /// /// 05
134100 2223N 07301W 6959 03061 //// +065 //// 233065 067 /// /// 05
134130 2221N 07300W 6970 03043 9974 +085 //// 227060 070 060 023 05
134200 2220N 07259W 6957 03070 9982 +095 +095 226049 052 060 021 03
134230 2219N 07257W 6955 03081 9974 +096 +096 234049 051 052 013 03
$$
;

[tgenius]

live loop.

Rapid scans, but right now it doesn't appear to be moving much.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

to my eye it looks to be starting to slow the southern turn it has been doing lately, but of course looks can be deceiving!

[NotoSans]

Center dropsonde. Pressure 942 mb w/ 7 kt wind.

000
UZNT13 KNHC 011342
XXAA 51137 99231 70738 08033 99942 27419 11007 00/// ///// /////
92159 25813 13009 85905 23429 13514 70600 20062 08503 88999 77999
31313 09608 81323
61616 AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 14
62626 CENTER MBL WND 12007 AEV 07775 DLM WND 11508 941697 WL150 1
2508 084 REL 2312N07381W 132326 SPG 2312N07382W 132728 =
XXBB 51138 99231 70738 08033 00942 27419 11850 23429 22836 23035
33814 23856 44709 21463 55697 19461
21212 00942 11007 11898 10006 22865 11514 33850 13514 44828 15012
55736 10010 66723 11010 77697 07001
31313 09608 81323
61616 AF301 0711A JOAQUIN OB 14
62626 CENTER MBL WND 12007 AEV 07775 DLM WND 11508 941697 WL150 1
2508 084 REL 2312N07381W 132326 SPG 2312N07382W 132728 =
;

[windnrain]

What are the track implications of he is pumping the ridge?

[davidiowx]

Looks to be losing latitude still and sagging SSW, yet again off the NHC forecast points.

Could he be getting steered by 300MB and higher winds now since he is so deep?

Could he start pumping up the ridge?

Latest loop (RAMMB):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

quite possibly. It may be why Ike made the Gulf. It underwent rapid intensification and was steered southward by northerly outflow from Hanna

This is also east of the model points

again, watch Haiti

Haiti landfall would be crazy considering none of the models remotely show that. Could you imagine if that happened and then it wondered westward? Has there ever been a Hurricane that did the opposite of what the models said in the last 20 or so years?

[terstorm1012]

I think we'll really know by tonight where Joaquin is going because I think cutoff low at 500mb will finally evolve. It's over the Ohio Valley now. Look at the WV. It's really just a matter of which will win--the Atlantic system or the US system.

But right now my heart goes out to the Central Bahamas. my dad's family is from that part of the Bahamas. We don't really keep much in touch with our extended family still living there but they must be having a severe time right now.

[ronjon]

This storm keeps dropping S-SW the northeast coast of Cuba may be in danger.

[AutoPenalti]

live loop.

Rapid scans, but right now it doesn't appear to be moving much.

http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=23&lon=-74&info=vis&zoom=1&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir1.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

It did that yesterday too.

[tropicwatch]

Timing is going to be everything with this approaching front. The front appears to be weakening on the southern end.



Loop
http://wwwghcc.msfc.nasa.gov/cgi-bin/get-goes?satellite=GOES-E%20CONUS&lat=26&lon=-71&info=ir&zoom=4&width=1000&height=800&quality=90&type=Animation&palette=ir3.pal&numframes=20&mapcolor=gray

[SunnyThoughts]

http://www.streamingthe.net/Mix-102.9-F ... 23283/live This is freeport, bahamas live radio station...they aren't wall to wall coverage of the storm, but do talk about what is going on...say that some of the islands are experiencing surge...and are expecting a cat 4 storm. telephone lines in and out and power outages and flooding on various islands . freeport itself is under hurricane warning.

[Blown Away]

Looks to be losing latitude still and sagging SSW, yet again off the NHC forecast points.

Could he be getting steered by 300MB and higher winds now since he is so deep?

Could he start pumping up the ridge?

Latest loop (RAMMB):
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/ramsdis ... display=12

Wow, what a sudden dive SSW over past few frames... The entire system (high clouds) is now below 25N...

[Jevo]

Pinhole anyone?