ATL: DANNY - Remnants - Discussion

[wxman57]

Danny is running into 30-40 kts of SW shear, and that shear will continue for days. TropicalTidbits has the best shear maps & forecast. A plane is investigating Danny now. The LLC may be quite ill-defined. Pressure looks like around 1005mb. Max winds around 25 kts in the western half of Danny. Plane is heading NE now toward the center. Danny's appearance on satellite is less impressive than Invest 98L. I think it's close to opening up into a wave.

http://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

Here's the map for tomorrow as Danny reaches the Caribbean.

[Sanibel]

Left of trop points. Interesting.

[Gustywind]

TS Danny

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1745 UTC 15.5N 58.2W T2.0/2.5 DANNY
23/1145 UTC 15.6N 56.7W T2.5/3.0 DANNY
23/0545 UTC 15.4N 55.3W T2.5/3.5 DANNY
22/2345 UTC 15.6N 54.0W T3.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1745 UTC 16.0N 52.4W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
22/1145 UTC 15.4N 51.4W T3.5/4.5 DANNY
22/0545 UTC 15.1N 50.0W T4.0/4.5 DANNY
21/2345 UTC 14.9N 49.3W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1745 UTC 14.3N 48.4W T4.5/5.0 DANNY
21/1145 UTC 13.8N 47.8W T5.0/5.0 DANNY
21/0545 UTC 13.5N 46.9W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/2345 UTC 13.2N 46.0W T4.5/4.5 DANNY
20/1745 UTC 12.7N 45.3W T4.0/4.0 DANNY
20/1145 UTC 12.4N 44.2W T3.0/3.0 DANNY
20/0545 UTC 12.0N 43.1W T2.5/3.0 DANNY

[Gustywind]

Best Track.

AL, 04, 2015082318, , BEST, 0, 156N, 582W, 40, 1004, TS

[drezee]

Danny is literally one hot tower collapse from opening up. It is too close to the Columbian heat low...almost zero chance on this course even without the dry air. Penthouse to outhouse....

[msbee]

St Maarten is 18.1 63.1. Trying to figure out if Danny is going to come close enough to give us some rain?
Any guesses?

We will see Barbara Let's hope that the northern part of Danny could bring nice showers. Keeping our fingers crossed. If Danny could be a rain event most of the EC will be glad for sure. Interresting hours ahead.

thanks Gusty
yea, we wait and watch as usual.
st Maarten is shut down... expecting the worst, hoping for the best.
how is the weather in Guadeloupe?

[ozonepete]

I wish Aric was around. He'd explain that the naked center you see is not the LLC. In weak tropical storms, whether first developing or weakening from a hurricane, and especially when moving through high shear, the center gets elongated and multiple centers form within the larger one and rotate around inside the larger one. The new LLCs get spit out until a new one is established, if the storm can make it through the shear. That LLC that went west is now moving southwest and is dissipating. A new one is forming north of it around 16.9N 57.8W. If you continue following the old center you'll start thinking it went south, lol.

[blp]

I wish Aric was around. He'd explain that the naked center you see is not the LLC. In weak tropical storms, whether first developing or weakening from a hurricane, and especially when moving through high shear, the center gets elongated and multiple centers form within the larger one and rotate around inside the larger one. The new LLCs get spit out until a new one is established, if the storm can make it through the shear. That LLC that went west is now moving southwest and is dissipating. A new one is forming north of it around 16.9N 57.8W. If you continue following the old center you'll start thinking it went south, lol.

Excellent point. You are correct that happens a lot in these types of situations and you get fooled easily.

[ozonepete]

I wish Aric was around. He'd explain that the naked center you see is not the LLC. In weak tropical storms, whether first developing or weakening from a hurricane, and especially when moving through high shear, the center gets elongated and multiple centers form within the larger one and rotate around inside the larger one. The new LLCs get spit out until a new one is established, if the storm can make it through the shear. That LLC that went west is now moving southwest and is dissipating. A new one is forming north of it around 16.9N 57.8W. If you continue following the old center you'll start thinking it went south, lol.

Excellent point. You are correct that happens a lot in these types of situations and you get fooled easily.

And I'm not sayin' that this will survive all of this shear. But if it makes it to the Virgin Islands the shear drops off rapidly. But it has punishing shear right now and that is why the center will be very hard to pinpoint for the time being.

[curtadams]

Looks to me like Danny has been decapitated. There's a MLC NE of the center, weaking since it's in dry air and has no surface low to feed it. Meanwhile the LLC has thrown up some more convection but this is a really hostile situation for regenerating - strong shear, small size, and dry air. That's also probably why Danny (or perhaps ex-Danny) has veered to the left - separated from the upper levels responding to the SWesterly upper winds he's going more south with the low-level flow.

[blp]

I wish Aric was around. He'd explain that the naked center you see is not the LLC. In weak tropical storms, whether first developing or weakening from a hurricane, and especially when moving through high shear, the center gets elongated and multiple centers form within the larger one and rotate around inside the larger one. The new LLCs get spit out until a new one is established, if the storm can make it through the shear. That LLC that went west is now moving southwest and is dissipating. A new one is forming north of it around 16.9N 57.8W. If you continue following the old center you'll start thinking it went south, lol.

Excellent point. You are correct that happens a lot in these types of situations and you get fooled easily.

And I'm not sayin' that this will survive all of this shear. But if it makes it to the Virgin Islands the shear drops off rapidly. But it has punishing shear right now and that is why the center will be very hard to pinpoint for the time being.

The only thing I would add is that it still is a very organized system at the lower levels so probably only one center right now but as it deteriotes I would not be surprised to see other centers form under deeper convection.

[curtadams]

I wish Aric was around. He'd explain that the naked center you see is not the LLC. In weak tropical storms, whether first developing or weakening from a hurricane, and especially when moving through high shear, the center gets elongated and multiple centers form within the larger one and rotate around inside the larger one. The new LLCs get spit out until a new one is established, if the storm can make it through the shear. That LLC that went west is now moving southwest and is dissipating. A new one is forming north of it around 16.9N 57.8W. If you continue following the old center you'll start thinking it went south, lol.

That does happen in developing storms, and less often with extant storms. But in *this* case you can see the LLC is the real LLC, because the clouds over a hundred miles out continue to revolve around it. In some situations that MLC off to the NE could form a new low, but not in the presence of a strong existing LLC and the strong shear.

[tailgater]

One amateur's opinion is that it will rebound somewhat tonight only to get shear off again tomorrow. just how much is my question. Pulsing is the norm, is what I've observed in the past years.

[ozonepete]

I wish Aric was around. He'd explain that the naked center you see is not the LLC. In weak tropical storms, whether first developing or weakening from a hurricane, and especially when moving through high shear, the center gets elongated and multiple centers form within the larger one and rotate around inside the larger one. The new LLCs get spit out until a new one is established, if the storm can make it through the shear. That LLC that went west is now moving southwest and is dissipating. A new one is forming north of it around 16.9N 57.8W. If you continue following the old center you'll start thinking it went south, lol.

That does happen in developing storms, and less often with extant storms. But in *this* case you can see the LLC is the real LLC, because the clouds over a hundred miles out continue to revolve around it. In some situations that MLC off to the NE could form a new low, but not in the presence of a strong existing LLC and the strong shear.

So we will watch and see what happens. It's easy enough to see the old LLC and what happens to it...

[Gustywind]

St Maarten is 18.1 63.1. Trying to figure out if Danny is going to come close enough to give us some rain?
Any guesses?

We will see Barbara Let's hope that the northern part of Danny could bring nice showers. Keeping our fingers crossed. If Danny could be a rain event most of the EC will be glad for sure. Interresting hours ahead.

thanks Gusty
yea, we wait and watch as usual.
st Maarten is shut down... expecting the worst, hoping for the best.
how is the weather in Guadeloupe?

Yeah Barbara Not too much action in Guadeloupe, i have some brief episode of light rain during the first part of the day. Numerous clouds are doting my area with now winds. Numerous events have been canceled du to the arrival of Danny.

Here is the latest weather condition in Guadeloupe at our Airport le Raizet.

http://weather.noaa.gov/weather/current/TFFR.html

Current Weather Conditions:
Le Raizet, Guadeloupe, Guadeloupe

(TFFR) 16-16N 061-31W 11M


Conditions at
Aug 23, 2015 - 04:00 PM EDT Aug 23, 2015 - 2015.08.23 2000 UTC

Wind from the NE (040 degrees) at 7 MPH (6 KT) (direction variable)
Visibility greater than 7 mile(s)
Sky conditions partly cloudy
Temperature 87 F (31 C)
Heat index 95.7 F (35.4 C)
Dew Point 75 F (24 C)
Relative Humidity 66%
Pressure (altimeter) 29.85 in. Hg (1011 hPa)
ob TFFR 232000Z AUTO 04006KT 360V140 9999 FEW024/// SCT064/// 31/24 Q1011


24 Hour Summary

Time
EDT (UTC) Temperature
F (C) Dew Point
F (C) Pressure
Inches (hPa) Wind
MPH Weather
Latest 4 PM (20) Aug 23 87 (31) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) NE 7
3 PM (19) Aug 23 84 (29) 77 (25) 29.85 (1011) NE 14
2 PM (18) Aug 23 87 (31) 75 (24) 29.85 (1011) ENE 14
1 PM (17) Aug 23 86 (30) 77 (25) 29.88 (1012) E 13
Noon (16) Aug 23 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) ESE 9 light rain
11 AM (15) Aug 23 80 (27) 78 (26) 29.91 (1013) E 6 light rain; mist
10 AM (14) Aug 23 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) E 10
9 AM (13) Aug 23 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) E 9
8 AM (12) Aug 23 86 (30) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) E 8
7 AM (11) Aug 23 82 (28) 75 (24) 29.91 (1013) ENE 10
6 AM (10) Aug 23 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) W 2
5 AM (9) Aug 23 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) Calm
4 AM (8) Aug 23 75 (24) 73 (23) 29.88 (1012) Calm
3 AM (7) Aug 23 75 (24) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) W 2
2 AM (6) Aug 23 78 (26) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) Variable 2
1 AM (5) Aug 23 78 (26) 69 (21) 29.88 (1012) Variable 1
Midnight (4) Aug 23 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) Variable 3
11 PM (3) Aug 22 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.94 (1014) NE 9
10 PM (2) Aug 22 80 (27) 69 (21) 29.94 (1014) ENE 9
9 PM (1) Aug 22 80 (27) 68 (20) 29.94 (1014) ENE 5
8 PM (0) Aug 22 80 (27) 71 (22) 29.94 (1014) ENE 8
7 PM (23) Aug 22 80 (27) 73 (23) 29.91 (1013) E 9
6 PM (22) Aug 22 82 (28) 71 (22) 29.91 (1013) ENE 10
Oldest 5 PM (21) Aug 22 86 (30) 71 (22) 29.88 (1012) ENE 10

[xironman]

I wish Aric was around. He'd explain that the naked center you see is not the LLC. In weak tropical storms, whether first developing or weakening from a hurricane, and especially when moving through high shear, the center gets elongated and multiple centers form within the larger one and rotate around inside the larger one. The new LLCs get spit out until a new one is established, if the storm can make it through the shear. That LLC that went west is now moving southwest and is dissipating. A new one is forming north of it around 16.9N 57.8W. If you continue following the old center you'll start thinking it went south, lol.

My thoughts are during the day with dmin, shear and dry air the convection kind of collapsed and broke the vertical structure to the system, so we are seeing multiple centers at different levels. My feeling is if Danny reaches better atmospheric conditions where convention can re-establish itself across the vertical column, it "could" come back together. Maybe that is drawing the LLC back to the larger gyre. Back in the day, AMF had some good thoughts on this.

[NCSTORMMAN]

Danny boy is dead.

[WPBWeather]

Danny boy is dead.

I don't think he's listening.

[xironman]

Yeh, I know this belongs in a models thread, but things are pretty quite around here. I have seen worse intensity predictions for storms than Danny

[ozonepete]

I wish Aric was around. He'd explain that the naked center you see is not the LLC. In weak tropical storms, whether first developing or weakening from a hurricane, and especially when moving through high shear, the center gets elongated and multiple centers form within the larger one and rotate around inside the larger one. The new LLCs get spit out until a new one is established, if the storm can make it through the shear. That LLC that went west is now moving southwest and is dissipating. A new one is forming north of it around 16.9N 57.8W. If you continue following the old center you'll start thinking it went south, lol.

My thoughts are during the day with dmin, shear and dry air the convection kind of collapsed and broke the vertical structure to the system, so we are seeing multiple centers at different levels. My feeling is if Danny reaches better atmospheric conditions where convention can re-establish itself across the vertical column, it "could" come back together. Maybe that is drawing the LLC back to the larger gyre. Back in the day, AMF had some good thoughts on this.

AMF?